National statistics

Total factor productivity of the UK agricultural industry 2021 - statistics notice (published 12 May 2022)

Updated 25 May 2023

This release presents the estimate^{[footnote 1]} of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of the UK agricultural industry for 2021. It also presents volume indices for inputs and outputs. This release is subject to a degree of revision, owing to additional data availability, when estimates for 2022 are published in spring of 2023. There have also been small revisions to historic data in this release, following data updates.

TFP is a measure of how well inputs are converted into outputs, giving an indication of the efficiency and competitiveness of the agricultural industry. Although external factors such as weather conditions or disease outbreaks may have a short-term impact on productivity, it is developments that improve productivity over a longer period that constitute one of the main drivers of agricultural income.

TFP estimates are derived from the aggregate farm accounts data used to calculate UK Total Income from Farming (TIFF). TIFF estimates for 2021 are published in parallel with these and can be found on GOV.UK.

Please note, we have re-based the data contained within this release to 1973. This is to improve the consistency between the figures and tables presented within. See section 5.2 Revisions for more details

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1. Key messages

• TFP is estimated to have increased by 2.9% between 2020 and 2021. This was driven by a decrease in the volume of all inputs and an increase in the volume of all outputs.

• The volume of all outputs increased by 2.6%. 2021 saw increases in volume for all crop and livestock output categories, with the exception of fruit (-10.2%) and potatoes (-4.3%). These small decreases were outweighed by larger increases across other outputs, particularly in the output of ‘other crops products’ (23.8%) and the output of cereals (22.8%).

• The volume of all inputs decreased by 0.3%. This small decrease in the volume of inputs is the result of a mixed pattern of increases and decreases in 2021. The inputs that saw the largest percentage increases were plant protection products (6.3%), fertilisers (4.5%) and animal feed (3.3%). Whereas those with the largest percentage decreases were seeds (-11.8%), other goods and services (-5.6%) and total maintenance (-4.5%).

Figure 1: Summary of key indices 2020 to 2021 (1973 = 100)

Item	2020	2021
All outputs	132.8	136.3
All inputs	86.3	86.1
Total factor productivity	153.8	158.4

2. Long term trends

Figure 2: Long term trend in TFP of the UK agricultural industry (1973 = 100)

TFP of the agricultural industry in the United Kingdom increased by 2.9% between 2020 and 2021. This was driven by an increase in the volume of all outputs and a decrease in the volume of all inputs. As shown in Figure 2, this continues the pattern of annual fluctuations seen from around the year 2000 onwards. Despite this annual variability, the long-term trend is still one of slow but overall improvement in TFP.

Since the series began in 1973, TFP has increased by 58.4%, driven by an increase in the volume of all outputs by 36.3% and a decrease in the volume of all inputs by 13.9%.

3. Annual changes, 2020 to 2021

3.1 All outputs

‘All outputs’ represents the change in volume (expressed as an index based to 1973) of all outputs sold off the farm, excluding transactions within the agricultural industry.

Table 1. Volume indices for outputs (1973 = 100)^(a)

Item	2020	2021	Annual Change
Output of cereals	143.0	175.6	22.8%
Output of industrial crops	194.8	210.8	8.2%
Output of forage plants	99.3	99.3	0.0%
Output of vegetables and horticultural products	81.2	82.9	2.1%
Output of potatoes	98.7	94.5	-4.3%
Output of fruit	131.8	118.4	-10.2%
Output of other crop products	99.2	122.8	23.8%
Total crop output	132.9	142.2	7.0%
Output of livestock (meat)	130.8	131.2	0.4%
Output of livestock products	108.5	109.6	1.0%
Total livestock output	121.7	122.4	0.6%
Inseparable non-agricultural activities	548.9	534.7	-2.6%
All outputs	132.8	136.3	2.6%

^(a) AHDB stopped producing potato yield data and prices in the last half of 2021. Therefore, we have looked at previous trends for the missing data and also sought views from stakeholders to estimate the value and volume of production for the sector.

• The volume of all outputs increased by 2.6% between 2020 and 2021. This was the result of an increase of 7.0% in the volume of total crop output and an increase of 0.6% in the volume of total livestock output.

• The largest percentage increase within total crop output was in the output of ‘other crop products’, which increased by 23.8%. This rise in other crop products is due entirely to increases in the volume of straw produced. 2021 saw reasonable crop yields resulting in a 40.7% increase in the volume straw produced from 2020.

• The largest percentage decrease within total crop output was in the output of fruit, which decreased by 10.2%. In 2021, production of fruit was severely impacted by cold weather. Planting, bud break and early development were all delayed by wet and cold weather during February and March, and overnight frosts in April damaged many flowering fruit crops. This led to a reduction in fruit production overall.

• The biggest change in total livestock output was in the output of livestock products, which increased by 1.0%. This rise in the volume of livestock products was driven by increases in the volume of production of both eggs (6.0%) and other animal products (11.8%).

3.2 All inputs

‘All inputs’ represents the change in volume (expressed as an index based to 1973) of all goods and services purchased and consumed, excluding transactions within the agricultural industry.

Table 2: Volume indices for inputs (1973 = 100)

Item	2020	2021	Annual Change
Seeds	128.4	113.2	-11.8%
Energy	48.5	47.5	-2.0%
Fertilisers	66.2	69.2	4.5%
Plant protection products	307.1	326.4	6.3%
Veterinary expenses	116.7	116.5	-0.2%
Animal feed	134.9	139.4	3.3%
Total maintenance	59.9	57.2	-4.5%
FISIM	100.0	100.0	0.0%
Other goods and services	139.7	131.8	-5.6%
Intermediate consumption	104.7	104.1	-0.6%
Consumption of fixed capital	122.0	122.3	0.3%
All labour	51.1	51.0	-0.1%
Land	97.5	97.3	-0.2%
All inputs and entrepreneurial labour	86.3	86.1	-0.3%

• The volume of all inputs decreased by 0.3% between 2020 and 2021. As seen in Table 2, this small decrease in the volume of inputs is the result of a mixed pattern of changes in 2021, with the volume of some inputs increasing and others decreasing.

• The largest percentage increase in inputs was plant protection products, which increased by 6.3%. This increase was largely driven by the use of fungicides and other plant protection products (such as plant growth regulators and molluscicides), which increased in 2021 due to a larger winter cropping area as well as relatively high disease pressure. These factors resulted in the use of more robust treatment measures over a larger area. Additional plant protection products, such as insecticides, saw decreased use in 2021 due to a reduction in area of spring crops. The increase in winter cropping and reduction in spring cropping areas, reflects a return to more traditional cropping practices in 2021, following an unusual 2020 where winter sowing was badly affected by wet weather.

• The largest percentage decrease in inputs was seeds, which decreased by 11.8%. The decrease in seeds seen in 2021 was the result of a return to more normal sowing practices, following an unusual 2020. In 2020, poor weather conditions during drilling of winter wheat led to many farmers switching to spring sowing, increasing seed usage. 2021 saw favourable conditions for both winter and spring sowing of crops, leading to a return to winter sowing and a reduction in the volume of seeds used overall.

4. Partial productivity

Partial productivity shows the impact key inputs have on productivity. It measures total outputs against a part of the inputs.

Table 3: Partial factor productivity (1973 = 100)

Item	2020	2021	Annual Change
Productivity by intermediate consumption	126.8	130.9	3.2%
Productivity by capital consumption	108.9	111.4	2.3%
Productivity by labour	260.2	267.3	2.7%
Productivity by land	136.2	140.1	2.9%

Figure 3: Long term trend in partial productivity indicators (1973 = 100)

Table 3 and Figure 3 show that labour is the key input driving productivity gains. Productivity by labour shows a steady increase over the whole period since 1973. Labour volumes are now approximately half of what they were in 1973. However, more recent growth in labour productivity is due to increased output rather than a reduction in labour volume.

5. About these statistics

5.1 Contact details

Responsible statistician: Joshua Moatt
Email: farmaccounts@defra.gov.uk
Telephone enquiries: 0207 714 1913
Media enquiries: 0345 051 8486
Public enquiries: 0845 601 3034

Room 202 Foss House
Kings Pool
1-2 Peasholme Green
York
YO1 7PX

5.2 Revisions

This release represents the estimate for TFP 2021 in the United Kingdom. At the time of publication, not all data is available and some values have been forecasted. Consequently, this release is subject to a degree of revision when estimates for 2022 are published in spring of 2023.

As a result of more data becoming available over time there have been minor revisions to earlier years in this release. These revisions are intended to enhance the precision of these estimates. Sometimes additional revisions are necessary to refine the methodology or correct historical errors.

Below are a list of key revisions that have been carried out since the last publication:

• The TFP data series has been re-based to the year 1973 (1973 = 100). In previous releases the data in the figures and tables were presented at different base years. By presenting the data series, tables and figures to the same base year, we aim to increase the consistency of the data within this release. Re-basing has no material impact on the interpretation of these data, as the year on year percentage changes will remain the same.

• The 2020 volumes for most outputs have been revised, owing to additional data becoming available since the 2020 second estimate published in December 2021.

• More accurate data was acquired for the calculation of total maintenance and capital consumption/formation, leading to some minor revisions to the back series.

• The indices for eggs have been revised from 2018 onwards, owing to an error where unpacked eggs were not included in the total value used in the calculation of the volume indices.

• The methodology for calculating the value and volume of production of potatoes has changed for 2021 compared to previous years. AHDB stopped producing potato yield data and prices in the last half of 2021. Therefore, we have looked at previous trends for the missing data and also sought views from stakeholders to estimate the value and volume of production for the sector.

5.3 National statistics status

National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.

The continued designation of these statistics as National Statistics was confirmed in December 2017 following a compliance check by the Office for Statistics Regulation Total factor productivity of the UK agricultural industry.

The statistics last underwent a full assessment (Assessment Report 271 Statistics on Agriculture) against the Code of Practice for Statistics in 2014.

Since the latest review by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics and have enhanced data quality by reviewing methodologies and data sources.

For general enquiries about National Statistics, contact the National Statistics Public Enquiry Service:

Telephone: 0845 601 3034

Email: info@statistics.gov.uk

5.4 Background to TFP

These results are produced as part of the preparation of aggregate agricultural accounts UK National Statistics. The agricultural accounts are also used to produce other measures of performance of the agricultural industry, including Total Income from Farming.

5.5 Quality assurance

Defra has in place quality assurance processes to check the accuracy and reliability of the aggregate agricultural accounts that includes:

• Ongoing review of methods employed in the calculation of the accounts.

• Assessment of the quality of the estimates of components of the accounts with internal and external experts.

A summary quality report for this statistical release can be found on the GOV.UK website.

This is an overview note which is not release-specific but will be reviewed and updated at regular intervals. It pulls together key qualitative information on the various dimensions of quality as well as providing a summary of methods used to compile the output. It provides users with information on usability and fitness for purpose of these estimates.

5.6 Main uses and users of TFP

TFP is used in conjunction with other economic information to:

• Inform policy decisions and to help monitor and evaluate current policies relating to agriculture in the UK by Government.

• Inform stakeholders of the performance of the agricultural industry.

• Inform research into the economic performance of the agricultural industry.

• As an impact indicator of Government policy.

5.7 User engagement

As part of our ongoing commitment to compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, we wish to strengthen our engagement with users of these statistics and better understand the use made of them and the types of decisions that they inform. Consequently, we invite users to make themselves known, to advise us of the use they do, or might, make of these statistics, and what their wishes are in terms of engagement. We welcome any enquiries about these statistics and are keen to hear what we could do to improve this release for users. Please take the time to complete a short feedback form to help us better understand user needs.

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5.8 Future publications

The estimate of Total Factor Productivity in the UK for 2022 will be published in spring 2023 which will include any revisions to data for 2022.

1. This release has previously been termed “provisional estimate”. Due to a shift to annual publication there will only be 1 set of estimates published and any revisions made will be incorporated into the following release in spring 2023. ↩