Direct effects of illustrative tax changes bulletin (January 2024)
Updated 23 January 2024
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This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/direct-effects-of-illustrative-tax-changes/direct-effects-of-illustrative-tax-changes-bulletin-january-2023
1. Introduction
The tables below are ‘ready reckoners’, showing estimates of the effects of illustrative tax changes on tax receipts from 2024 to 2025, 2025 to 2026, and 2026 to 2027 fiscal years, based on implementation in April 2024. Illustrative changes are presented for various taxes, for example, showing the impact of a 1% or one percentage point change, assuming all other duties are unchanged. The change calculated for each tax head is detailed in each table.
Estimates are shown on a National Accounts basis, which aims to recognise tax at the time its liability arises, regardless of when the tax is received by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). However, for some taxes the National Accounts basis is when HMRC receives the payment. This is due to difficulty in assessing the time at which the liability relates. Such taxes include Self-Assessment Income Tax, Inheritance Tax and Capital Gains Tax.
The figures in the table have been updated in line with the latest economy and fiscal forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published on 22 November 2023, alongside the Autumn Statement 2023. Information which came to light after this date is not factored into the estimates in this publication.
Tax revenues depend on a number of key economic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), prices, earnings and consumer expenditure.
The OBR’s November receipts forecast has increased in all years relative to the March 2023 forecast. This is predominantly driven by stronger-than-expected outturn this year, and a stronger forecast for the nominal drivers of the key tax bases, both driven, mainly, by higher inflation. These changes feed through into the effects of illustrative tax changes in these published statistics.
It is important to note that the estimated impacts of the illustrative policy changes presented in the bulletin are reliant on the OBR’s November 2023 economic forecasts, and are therefore sensitive to changes in the economic outlook. The estimates do not include any economic or policy changes made since the Autumn Statement on 22 November 2023.
The ready reckoner for Tax Credits has now been removed from this publication. With the continued migration of tax credit claimants to Universal Credit, the figures presented are no longer representative of the impact of changing levels of support in the welfare system. By the end of 2024, tax credits will be replaced by Universal Credit.
This publication also no longer includes an estimate for changing Class 2 National Insurance contributions (NICs) amounts, following the Government announcement that the self-employed will no longer have to pay Class 2 from April 2024 onwards.
2. Methodology
Unless otherwise stated, the costs of the effects are estimated using standard HMRC models and methodologies.
All estimates show the impacts of the various illustrative changes on top of what is already assumed in the indexed baseline – i.e. generally revaluation based on latest available data, plus any previous announcements on rates and allowances up to and including the Autumn Statement 2023. The changes are applied from April 2024.
The estimates only consider the direct impact of a measure on the tax base to which it is being applied, or to closely related tax bases. Generally, we do not consider effects on other tax bases and wider economic factors, such as inflation and investment, as these are usually captured in the OBR’s economy forecast.
Unless otherwise stated, the effects of the illustrative changes can be scaled up or down to provide a rough guide to the potential effects. A reduction of 2p in a tax rate will cost around twice as much as a reduction of 1p. However, the costs of increasing an Income Tax allowance or rate limit do not scale so linearly. Typically, the additional cost falls as the allowance or rate limit rises. We therefore provide estimates for different percentage increases and decreases for the main Income Tax allowance and limits. The illustrative figures for Capital Gains Tax rates are also non-linear and so cannot be scaled up, therefore, we have provided estimates for multiple percentage point increases for the Capital Gains Tax rates.
The total cost of a group of changes can broadly be assessed by adding together the estimated revenue effects of each change. However, if for example, Income Tax allowances are increased substantially and combined with a reduction in the basic or higher rate, the cost of the rate reductions will be reduced. In such cases, the cost or yield obtained by adding components from the ready reckoner should be considered only as a general guide.
3. Other useful information:
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our publications are available on the GOV.UK site where you can also find publications by other government bodies.
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if you wish to view all HMRC National Statistics and official statistics publications go to the main menu
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the relevance, accuracy and reliability of the costings in this table can be found in the quality report
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a copy of the table is included within this bulletin, but is also published as a separate ODS version
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the Office for Budget Responsibility has produced a general guide to explaining policy costings in more detail
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for new measures announced at Autumn Statement 2023 the methodologies are described in a supplementary policy costings document, published by HM Treasury
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the Welsh Government publish a ready reckoner for the Welsh rates of Income Tax as part of the Welsh tax policy report
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the Scottish Government publish a ready reckoner for Scottish Income Tax
4. Direct effects of illustrative changes
5. Income Tax rates
| Illustrative tax changes | Current Estimate, financial year 2024-25, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2025-26, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2026-27, £ million | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change starting rate for savings income by 1p | 0 | 20 | 15 | 1,2,3,4 |
| Change basic rate by 1p | 6000 | 7350 | 7250 | 1,2,3,4 |
| Change higher rate by 1p | 1250 | 1750 | 1750 | 1,2,3,4 |
| Increase additional rate by 1p (yield) | 105 | 195 | 170 | 1,2,3,4 |
| Decrease additional rate by 1p (cost) | 130 | 245 | 215 | 1,2,3,4 |
(1) The illustrative figures for Income Tax (apart from those exclusively for savings for dividends income) show the exchequer impact on the UK government (i.e. the impact on Income Tax revenues from England and Northern Ireland, plus any associated changes in the Scottish Government’s and Welsh Government’s block grants). The ready reckoner does not include any impacts of changes for the elements of Income Tax devolved for Scotland or Wales.
(2) The illustrative figure for changing the starting rate of Income Tax by 1p assumes a minimum savings allowance of 20%.
(3) The illustrative figures include estimates of taxpayers’ behavioural responses. There can be significant uncertainty around these modelling assumptions, particularly concerning rate changes to the Income Tax and National Insurance Contributions of Additional Rate taxpayers.
(4) The figures differ from those in the Spring 2023 publication for a variety of reasons, including changes to forecast incomes and job growth. Additionally, HMRC have also reviewed their assumptions underlying behavioural responses in light of developments in the economic literature, including HMRC’s own research on Scottish taxpayers, which has also had some impact on the illustrative changes shown here.
6. Income Tax allowances and reliefs
| Illustrative tax changes | Current Estimate, financial year 2024-25, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2025-26, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2026-27, £ million | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change personal allowance by £100 | 665 | 860 | 935 | 1,3,4 |
| Change personal allowance by 1% | 925 | 1100 | 1050 | 1,3,4 |
| Change personal allowance by 10% | 9100 | 10600 | 10450 | 1,3,4 |
| Change Savings allowance by £100 for BR and £50 for HR taxpayers | 0 | 70 | 60 | 1,3,4 |
| Change dividend allowance by £100 | 0 | 80 | 70 | 1,3,4 |
(1) The illustrative figures for Income Tax (apart from those exclusively for savings for dividends income) show the exchequer impact on the UK government (i.e. the impact on Income Tax revenues from England and Northern Ireland, plus any associated changes in the Scottish Government’s and Welsh Government’s block grants). The ready reckoner does not include any impacts of changes for the elements of Income Tax devolved for Scotland or Wales.
(3) The illustrative figures include estimates of taxpayers’ behavioural responses. There can be significant uncertainty around these modelling assumptions, particularly concerning rate changes to the Income Tax and National Insurance Contributions of Additional Rate taxpayers.
(4) The figures differ from those in the Spring 2023 publication for a variety of reasons, including changes to forecast incomes and job growth. Additionally, HMRC have also reviewed their assumptions underlying behavioural responses in light of developments in the economic literature, including HMRC’s own research on Scottish taxpayers, which has also had some impact on the illustrative changes shown here.
7. Income Tax limits
| Illustrative tax changes | Current Estimate, financial year 2024-25, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2025-26, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2026-27, £ million | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change starting rate limit for savings income by £100 | Neg | 10 | 10 | 1,3,4 |
| Change basic rate limit by 1% | 405 | 570 | 565 | 1,3,4 |
| Increase basic rate limit by 10% (cost) | 3750 | 5350 | 5300 | 1,3,4 |
| Decrease basic rate limit by 10% (yield) | 4450 | 6250 | 6200 | 1,3,4 |
(1) The illustrative figures for Income Tax (apart from those exclusively for savings for dividends income) show the exchequer impact on the UK government (i.e. the impact on Income Tax revenues from England and Northern Ireland, plus any associated changes in the Scottish Government’s and Welsh Government’s block grants). The ready reckoner does not include any impacts of changes for the elements of Income Tax devolved for Scotland or Wales.
(3) The illustrative figures include estimates of taxpayers’ behavioural responses. There can be significant uncertainty around these modelling assumptions, particularly concerning rate changes to the Income Tax and National Insurance Contributions of Additional Rate taxpayers.
(4) The figures differ from those in the Spring 2023 publication for a variety of reasons, including changes to forecast incomes and job growth. Additionally, HMRC have also reviewed their assumptions underlying behavioural responses in light of developments in the economic literature, including HMRC’s own research on Scottish taxpayers, which has also had some impact on the illustrative changes shown here.
8. Income Tax allowances, starting and basic rate limits
| Illustrative tax changes | Current Estimate, financial year 2024-25, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2025-26, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2026-27, £ million | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change all main allowances, starting and basic rate limits by 1% | 1300 | 1650 | 1650 | 1,3,4 |
| Increase all main allowances, starting and basic rate limits by 10% (cost) | 12700 | 15800 | 15600 | 1,3,4 |
| Decrease all main allowances, starting and basic rate limits by 10% (yield) | 14300 | 17800 | 17550 | 1,3,4 |
(1) The illustrative figures for Income Tax (apart from those exclusively for savings for dividends income) show the exchequer impact on the UK government (i.e. the impact on Income Tax revenues from England and Northern Ireland, plus any associated changes in the Scottish Government’s and Welsh Government’s block grants). The ready reckoner does not include any impacts of changes for the elements of Income Tax devolved for Scotland or Wales.
(3) The illustrative figures include estimates of taxpayers’ behavioural responses. There can be significant uncertainty around these modelling assumptions, particularly concerning rate changes to the Income Tax and National Insurance Contributions of Additional Rate taxpayers.
(4) The figures differ from those in the Spring 2023 publication for a variety of reasons, including changes to forecast incomes and job growth. Additionally, HMRC have also reviewed their assumptions underlying behavioural responses in light of developments in the economic literature, including HMRC’s own research on Scottish taxpayers, which has also had some impact on the illustrative changes shown here.
9. National Insurance contributions rates
| Illustrative tax changes | Current Estimate, financial year 2024-25, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2025-26, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2026-27, £ million | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Class 1 employee main rate by 1 percentage point | 4600 | 4550 | 4650 | 3,4,5,6,7 |
| Change Class 1 employee additional rate by 1 percentage point | 1350 | 1400 | 1450 | 3,4,5,6,7 |
| Change Class 1 employer rate by 1 percentage point | 8200 | 8350 | 8600 | 3,5,6,7 |
| Change Class 4 main rate by 1 percentage point | 355 | 385 | 335 | 3,4,5,6,7 |
| Change Class 4 additional rate by 1 percentage point | 260 | 290 | 270 | 3,4,5,6,7 |
(3) The illustrative figures include estimates of taxpayers’ behavioural responses. There can be significant uncertainty around these modelling assumptions, particularly concerning rate changes to the Income Tax and National Insurance Contributions of Additional Rate taxpayers.
(4) The figures differ from those in the Spring 2023 publication for a variety of reasons, including changes to forecast incomes and job growth. Additionally, HMRC have also reviewed their assumptions underlying behavioural responses in light of developments in the economic literature, including HMRC’s own research on Scottish taxpayers, which has also had some impact on the illustrative changes shown here.
(5) The illustrative figures include Class 1A and Class 1B National Insurance paid by employers.
(6) A change to the rate of Class 1 employer NICs would have substantial additional negative exchequer effects from earnings and business profits depending on the assumed incidence of an employer rate increase. These judgements are made by the Office for Budget Responsibility with the effects captured in their economic and fiscal forecasts. These effects are not captured here.
(7) This publication no longer includes an estimate for changing Class 2 NICs amounts, following the Government’s Autumn Statement 2023 announcement that the self-employed will no longer have to pay Class 2 from April 2024 onwards.
10. National Insurance Contribution Limits
| Illustrative tax changes | Current Estimate, financial year 2024-25, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2025-26, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2026-27, £ million | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change employee entry threshold by £2 per week | 240 | 250 | 260 | - |
| Change employer threshold by £2 per week | 390 | 390 | 400 | - |
| Change lower profits limit by £104 per year | 20 | 15 | 20 | - |
| Change upper profits limit by £520 per year | 10 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Change upper earnings limit by £10 per week | 220 | 230 | 240 | - |
11. Child Benefit
| Illustrative tax changes | Current Estimate, financial year 2024-25, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2025-26, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2026-27, £ million | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increase first child rate by £1 per week (cost) | 335 | 350 | 360 | - |
| Decrease first child rate by £1 per week (yield) | 335 | 350 | 345 | - |
| Increase subsequent child rate by £1 per week (cost) | 235 | 245 | 240 | - |
| Decrease subsequent child rate by £1 per week (yield) | 235 | 230 | 240 | - |
12. Corporation tax
| Illustrative tax changes | Current Estimate, financial year 2024-25, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2025-26, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2026-27, £ million | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increase Corporation tax by 1 percentage point | 3500 | 3700 | 3800 | 8 |
(8) This estimate represents a 1 percentage point change to the main rate and small profits rate for onshore Corporation tax; it does not include offshore Corporation tax for North Sea oil and gas companies. Corporation tax is presented as ‘time-adjusted cash’, in line with the way the Office for National Statistics reports these revenues in the Public Sector Finances. The methodology for calculating time-adjusted cash aligns receipts more closely to the period of the economic activity that generates the tax liability.
13. Capital Gains Tax
| Illustrative tax changes | Current Estimate, financial year 2024-25, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2025-26, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2026-27, £ million | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increase Business Asset Disposal Relief rate by 1 percentage point | 5 | 125 | 120 | 9 |
| Increase Business Asset Disposal Relief rate by 5 percentage points | 25 | 510 | 475 | 9,10 |
| Increase Business Asset Disposal Relief rate by 10 percentage points | 50 | 740 | 635 | 9,10 |
| Increase lower Capital Gains Tax rate by 1 percentage point | 0 | 25 | 20 | 9 |
| Increase lower Capital Gains Tax rate by 5 percentage points | -5 | 80 | 65 | 9,10 |
| Increase lower Capital Gains Tax rate by 10 percentage points | -45 | 75 | 40 | 9,10 |
| Increase higher Capital Gains Tax rate by 1 percentage point | 5 | 175 | 115 | 9 |
| Increase higher Capital Gains Tax rate by 5 percentage points | -25 | 240 | -130 | 9,10 |
| Increase higher Capital Gains Tax rate by 10 percentage points | -170 | -1095 | -2060 | 9,10 |
| Increase Annual Exempt Amount by £500 for individuals and £250 for trusts | -5 | -25 | -20 | 9 |
(9) Estimates have been revised in line with updates to the Capital Gains Tax forecast and key economic variables. All estimates include behavioural impacts on Capital Gains Tax, Income Tax and Stamp Duty Land Tax. Estimates include the reduction in the annual exempt amount from £6,000 to £3000 from April 2024, as announced at Autumn Statement 2022. Capital Gains Tax rates includes residential property, carried interest and main rates.
(10) Please note that these rate changes are non-linear and asymmetrical. For example, doubling the change in revenue from a 5-percentage-point increase does not accurately predict the change in revenue under a 10-percentage-point increase. Very large tax rate rises can reduce exchequer yield due to taxpayer behavioural impacts.
14. Inheritance tax
| Illustrative tax changes | Current Estimate, financial year 2024-25, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2025-26, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2026-27, £ million | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increase standard rate for estates left on death by 1 percentage point | 75 | 160 | 185 | 11,12 |
| Increase Nil Rate Band by £5,000 (cost) | 40 | 90 | 105 | - |
| Increase Residence Nil Rate Band by £5,000 (cost) | 15 | 35 | 40 | - |
(11) Due to the six-month lag between the date of death and when Inheritance Tax becomes due, receipts in the first year of the policy change will be lower than in subsequent years.
(12) Increase to main rate and reduced rate of Inheritance Tax.
15. 1% change in various duties
| Illustrative tax changes | Indicative level of current duty on a typical item | Current Estimate, financial year 2024-25, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2025-26, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2026-27, £ million | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beer and cider duties | Pint of beer: 51p | 25 | 30 | 30 | 13,14 |
| Wine duties | 75cl bottle of table wine: £2.67 | 40 | 45 | 45 | 13,15 |
| Spirits duties | 70cl bottle of spirits £8.56 | 40 | 45 | 45 | 13,16 |
| Tobacco Duties | Packet of 20 cigarettes: £8.47 | 10 | 25 | 25 | 17 |
| Petrol | 52.95p per litre | 95 | 95 | 95 | 18,19 |
| Diesel | 52.95p per litre | 160 | 165 | 165 | 18,19 |
| Rebated oil | 10.18p per litre | neg | neg | neg | 18,19 |
| Climate change levy | 1kWh of business electricity: £0.00775 | 15 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Carbon price support | Tonne of carbon: £18 | neg | neg | neg | - |
| Aggregates levy | Tonne of Aggregate: £2.03 | neg | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| Landfill tax | Tonne of waste: £3.30 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20,21 |
(13) All illustrative impacts to alcohol rates are based on the alcohol taxation regime implemented from August 2023. To align with other estimates in this publication all rate changes also assumed to take effect from 6th April each year. In practice, as announced at Autumn Budget 2017, the OBR’s forecast now assumes that alcohol duties will be uprated on 1st February each year, except for 2024 where the forecast assumes uprating takes effect from 1st August 2024.
(14) Beer and cider: the illustrative revenue figures are based on duty increases on beer below 22% ABV (alcohol by volume), still cider exceeding 1.2% but less than 8.5% ABV and sparkling cider exceeding 1.2% up to 5.5% ABV. Assumed strength of a typical pint of beer is 4.3% ABV (rounded to 1 d.p.). The level of duty for a pint of beer reflects rates for an off-trade product. Draught beer faces a lower rate as of 1st August 2023 with the duty on a pint of 4.3% ABV (1 d.p.) beer being 46p. The duty paid on beer and cider is relative to the alcoholic strength of drink, therefore exact duty rates will vary with ABV.
(15) Wine: the illustrative revenue figures are based on duty increases for wine and made wine from 1.2% but not exceeding 22% ABV. Also includes sparkling cider from 5.5% to 8.5% ABV. A typical bottle of wine is assumed to be between 11.5-14.5% ABV. Typical duty accounts for the 18 month wine easement where wine will be treated as if it is 12.5% ABV for the purposes of calculating the charge to alcohol duty. The duty paid on wine is relative to the alcoholic strength of the drink, therefore exact duty rates will vary with ABV.
(16) Spirits: Assumed strength of a typical item is 38.7% ABV (1 d.p.). The duty paid on spirits is relative to the alcoholic strength of drink, therefore exact duty rates will vary with ABV.
(17) Duty on cigarettes has specific and ad valorem elements. As the duty paid on cigarettes is relative to their price, the exact duty on a pack is variable. The indicative duty figure is based on the weighted average price (WAP) in 2023 and current duty rates. A 1% change in specific duty rate is applied to all tobacco products. Since January 2022, a 1% change is also applied to the Minimum Excise Tax for cigarettes, and so, figures are not directly comparable to estimates in previous publications. The tobacco duty change estimated here is assumed to occur at the time of the annual uprating in November, which leads to a smaller change increase in the first year as it only affects a part of the year.
(18) Fuel duty rates have yet to be set for 2024/25. The indicative level of current duty on a typical item for fuel duty therefore reflects 2023/24 rates.
(19) The illustrative figures for fuel duty changes represent the revenue raised as a result of increasing fuel duty rates by RPI plus 1% in 2024/25, and by RPI each year after. This methodology differs slightly to the one used to calculate the previous estimates.
(20) The indicative level of current duty on a typical item for the Aggregates Levy and the Landfill Tax reflect rates from 1 April 2024.
(21) Landfill Tax (LFT) has been devolved to Scotland and Wales. The estimates shown relate to England and Northern Ireland only.
16. Vehicle excise duty
| Illustrative tax changes | Current Estimate, financial year 2024-25, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2025-26, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2026-27, £ million | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increase rates by £1 for motorbikes and £5 for all other vehicles | 195 | 205 | 210 | - |
17. Air passenger duty
| Illustrative tax changes | Current Estimate, financial year 2024-25, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2025-26, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2026-27, £ million | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increase reduced rate by £1 | 140 | 150 | 170 | - |
18. VAT
| Illustrative tax changes | Current Estimate, financial year 2024-25, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2025-26, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2026-27, £ million | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change reduced rate by 1 percentage point | 500 | 490 | 480 | - |
| Change standard rate by 1 percentage point | 8450 | 8700 | 9000 | - |
19. Insurance premium tax
| Illustrative tax changes | Current Estimate, financial year 2024-25, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2025-26, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2026-27, £ million | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change standard rate by 1 percentage point | 560 | 560 | 570 | - |
| Change higher rate by 1 percentage point | 15 | 15 | 15 | - |
20. Stamp duty land tax
| Illustrative tax changes | Current Estimate, financial year 2024-25, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2025-26, £ million | Current Estimate, financial year 2026-27, £ million | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut 5% marginal rate by 1 percentage point (Cost) | 495 | 700 | 805 | 22 |
| Raise 5% marginal rate by 1 percentage point (Yield) | 570 | 415 | 740 | 22 |
| Cut 10% marginal rate by 1 percentage point (Cost) | 25 | 25 | 35 | - |
| Raise 10% marginal rate by 1 percentage point (Yield) | 20 | 20 | 30 | - |
| Cut 12% marginal rate by 1 percentage point (Cost) | 5 | 0 | 10 | - |
| Raise 12% marginal rate by 1 percentage point (Yield) | -5 | -10 | -5 | - |
| Decrease Higher Rates of Duty on Additional Dwellings by 1 percentage point (Cost) | 400 | 290 | 375 | - |
| Increase Higher Rates of Duty on Additional Dwellings by 1 percentage point (Yield) | 285 | 185 | 260 | - |
| Decrease NRSDLT by 1 percentage point (Cost) | 10 | 25 | 55 | - |
| Increase NRSDLT by 1 percentage point (Yield) | -10 | 5 | 40 | - |
| Decrease Commercial SDLT by 1 percentage point (Cost) | 260 | 295 | 335 | - |
| Increase Commercial SDLT by 1 percentage point (Yield) | 125 | 155 | 195 | - |
(22) The residential nil-rate band falls back to £125k (£300k for First-Time Buyers) and First-Time Buyers’ Relief threshold falls back to £500k from 2025-26 onwards, which impacts 2025-26 and 2026-27 estimates.
21. Contacts
For statistical enquiries, contact:
mailbox.kaibudgetcoordination@hmrc.gov.uk
For media enquiries, see HMRC press office