Benefit uprating: estimated number and type of GB families and individuals in families benefitting from the uprating of benefits in 2024/25
Published 22 November 2023
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Introduction
The Secretary of State for Work and Pensions and HM Treasury have a statutory obligation to undertake annual reviews of State Pensions and both DWP and HMRC-administered benefits. Parliament is informed of the outcome of these reviews by means of Ministerial Statements and publication of a list of the existing and new benefit and pension rates on GOV.UK. For example, the DWP-administered benefit rates for 2023 to 2024.
Subject to Parliamentary approval, inflation-linked DWP benefits, tax credit elements and benefits administered by HMRC will rise by 6.7% from April 2024, in line with the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rate of inflation in September 2023. The Basic and New State Pensions will be uprated in line with earnings, 8.5%, as part of the ‘triple lock’[footnote 1].
Separate to this, the Secretary of State has committed to reviewing Local Housing Allowance (LHA) rates annually, usually in the Autumn. Parliament is informed of this review in a Ministerial Statement. Subject to Parliamentary approval, the LHA rates will increase to the 30th percentile of each Broad Rental Market Area, unless subject to national caps.
Existing official statistics on benefit recipients
DWP publish a comprehensive set of benefit statistics on Stat-Xplore at Stat-Xplore - Home (dwp.gov.uk). This includes official statistics on the number and characteristics of DWP benefit claimants as well as average amounts awarded. In addition, experimental statistics on combinations of DWP benefits[footnote 2] paid or administered to benefit claimants are available each quarter.
HMRC publish statistics on the number of claimants of Child Benefit at Child Benefit: annual release - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) and tax credits at Personal tax credits statistics - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk).
Benefit uprating affects a wide range of benefits, including both DWP and HMRC-administered benefits. However, there is no overarching publication that captures this information as a whole. For some benefits, information on family members is also not always collected. This release uses a combination of survey data and caseload forecasts to estimate how many and what type of families and individuals living in families are affected by benefit uprating and will therefore either have an increase in their benefit amounts or be living with someone who has an increase in their benefit amounts from April 2024.
Although HMRC-administered benefits are paid UK-wide, this release is restricted to Great Britain only; this ensures coverage is consistent and populations are comparable across the two Departments. Northern Ireland social security benefits are devolved to the Department for Communities in Northern Ireland and are therefore not in-scope for this release. The release also does not include benefits which have been devolved to the Scottish Parliament, such as Personal Independence Payment. Because the figures presented here are estimated they are subject to a degree of uncertainty.
Examples are also provided to show how uprating will affect benefit amounts for specific family types.
DWP publish statistics on claims covered by Local Housing Allowance (LHA) rates on Stat-Xplore, separated by Universal Credit Housing Element (UCHE) and Housing Benefit (HB). This includes the number and characteristics of affected households.
Families in-scope for benefit uprating next year
These statistics provide an estimate of the number of families in Great Britain that are in receipt of at least one DWP-administered or HMRC-administered benefit which will be subject to uprating in April 2024. They also include an estimate of the number of individuals that live in these families, broken down by type of individual.
An estimated 19.5 million families and 39.6 million individuals in families in Great Britain in receipt of DWP and HMRC benefits will see an increase in their benefits next year.
Estimated number of families with DWP and HMRC benefits uprated in 2024/25, by family type
| Number of families | |
|---|---|
| GB Total | 19,500,000 |
| Pensioner - single | 4,500,000 |
| Pensioner - couple | 3,200,000 |
| Working-Age and Pensioner couple | 1,100,000 |
| Working-Age couple with children | 3,900,000 |
| Working-Age single with children | 2,400,000 |
| Working-Age couple without children | 700,000 |
| Working-Age single without children | 3,700,000 |
Estimated number of families with DWP and HMRC benefits uprated in 2024/25, by region
| Number of families | |
|---|---|
| GB Total | 19,500,000 |
| North East | 900,000 |
| North West | 2,400,000 |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 1,700,000 |
| East Midlands | 1,500,000 |
| West Midlands | 1,900,000 |
| East | 1,800,000 |
| London | 2,200,000 |
| South East | 2,500,000 |
| South West | 1,700,000 |
| Wales | 1,100,000 |
| Scotland | 1,800,000 |
Estimated number of individuals living in families with DWP and HMRC benefits uprated in 2024/25, by region and type of individual
| All Individuals in families | Pensioners in families | Working-Age in families | Children in families | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB Total | 39,600,000 | 12,100,000 | 16,400,000 | 11,100,000 |
| North East | 1,800,000 | 500,000 | 700,000 | 500,000 |
| North West | 4,800,000 | 1,300,000 | 2,100,000 | 1,400,000 |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 3,600,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,500,000 | 1,000,000 |
| East Midlands | 3,100,000 | 900,000 | 1,300,000 | 900,000 |
| West Midlands | 3,900,000 | 1,100,000 | 1,600,000 | 1,200,000 |
| East | 3,700,000 | 1,200,000 | 1,400,000 | 1,000,000 |
| London | 4,500,000 | 1,100,000 | 2,000,000 | 1,400,000 |
| South East | 5,200,000 | 1,800,000 | 2,000,000 | 1,400,000 |
| South West | 3,500,000 | 1,300,000 | 1,300,000 | 900,000 |
| Wales | 2,100,000 | 700,000 | 900,000 | 600,000 |
| Scotland | 3,700,000 | 1,100,000 | 1,600,000 | 1,000,000 |
Estimated number of working-age individuals living in families with benefits uprated in 2024/25, by benefit type
| Number of working-age individuals in families | |
|---|---|
| GB Total | 16,400,000 |
| Child Benefit only | 5,100,000 |
| Child Benefit and other benefits | 5,100,000 |
| Other benefits only | 6,200,000 |
Estimated number of children living in families with benefits uprated in 2024/25, by benefit type
| Number of children in families | |
|---|---|
| GB Total | 11,100,000 |
| Child Benefit only | 4,300,000 |
| Child Benefit and other benefits | 6,800,000 |
Notes:
- Number of families and individuals in families is rounded to the nearest 100,000. Figures may not sum due to rounding.
- A family is defined as a single adult or a married or cohabiting couple and any dependent children or young people in full-time advanced education.
- Individuals in families includes all individuals within the specified group (e.g., Working-Age) that are living in a family which is affected by benefit uprating.
- Figures include the impact of the benefit cap on benefit awards.
- Social security is a transferred matter in Northern Ireland and State Pensions are also uprated in countries outside the UK where there is a legal obligation to do so but these figures exclude such cases. They also exclude child benefit and tax credit paid to families in Northern Ireland, and benefits such as Personal Independence Payment in Scotland which have been devolved to the Scottish Parliament.
- Child Benefit receipt refers to cases in payment. Recipients may have to pay the High Income Child Benefit Charge if the claimant or their partner has an individual income that is above £50,000.
- Estimates of families and individuals benefiting are based on survey data which is calibrated to national benefit forecasts. There is therefore increased uncertainty when estimating regional breakdowns below the national level.
- These figures were based on the latest models and forecasts at the time of analysis and therefore will not be fully consistent and should not be compared with final forecast benefit caseload data due to be published later this year at Benefit expenditure and caseload tables - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk). The “Benefit expenditure and caseload tables” will reflect OBR’s final Autumn Statement position.
Example Benefit amounts
The following are examples of how uprating will impact benefit amounts:
Table of weekly amounts
| Benefit Type | 2023/24 amount | 2024/25 amount | Increase in benefit amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full Basic State Pension | £156.20 | £169.50 | £13.30 |
| Full New State Pension | £203.85 | £221.20 | £17.35 |
| Pension Credit Standard Minimum Guarantee, Single | £201.05 | £218.15 | £17.10 |
| Pension Credit Standard Minimum Guarantee, Couple | £306.85 | £332.95 | £26.10 |
| Child Benefit, two children | £39.90 | £42.55 | £2.65 |
Table of monthly amounts
| Benefit Type | 2023/24 amount | 2024/25 amount | Increase in benefit amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universal Credit, single, aged 25+ | £368.74 | £393.45 | £24.71 |
| Universal Credit, single, aged 25+ with limited capability for work and work-related activity | £758.80 | £809.64 | £50.84 |
| Universal Credit, single, aged 25+ and one child (born on or after 6 April 2017) | # £638.32 | £681.37 | £43.05 |
| Universal Credit, couple, at least one adult 25+ and two children (born on or after 6 April 2017) | £1,117.98 | £1,193.44 | £75.46 |
In 2024/25, around 5.5 million Universal Credit families are forecast to benefit from uprating with an average annual gain for a family on Universal Credit estimated to be £470 (equivalent to an increase of around £39 per month), however gains will vary depending on the elements received by different family types. Around 1.3 million pensioner households in receipt of Pension Credit will benefit from an average annual increase of £310 in their Pension Credit award.
Data and Methodology
This analysis uses the Department for Work and Pensions’ Policy Simulation Model (PSM) of the UK tax and benefit system to estimate the number of families[footnote 3] and individuals in families that would be eligible for the uprating of DWP benefits, tax credit elements and benefits administered by HMRC. The PSM is a static microsimulation model based on a snapshot of the UK population from the Family Resources Survey (FRS)[footnote 4], currently for the financial year 2021/22. It uses caseload forecasts alongside the benefit rules to simulate results for each year, currently up to and including 2028/29.
In this analysis, the PSM is used to model the average number of families over the financial year 2024/25 that would be eligible for benefit uprating. The number of people living in families that would benefit from uprating was also modelled. This includes those who indirectly benefit from uprating, for example a couple where one partner is in receipt of a disability benefit, but the other partner is not would be counted as two people. Individuals and families may also receive multiple benefits, as such these figures should not be considered a count of benefit caseloads.
For pensioner families and individuals, off-model adjustments have been made to align with benefit forecasts. The advantage of using the model compared with administrative data for this purpose is that it models both DWP and HMRC benefits; it allows us to estimate all gainers in families, not just those captured in the admin data; it also allows analysis of beneficiaries by family type.
Estimates of families and individuals benefiting are based on survey data which is calibrated to national benefit forecasts. There is therefore increased uncertainty when estimating regional breakdowns below the national level.
These figures were based on the latest models and forecasts at the time of analysis and therefore will not be fully consistent and should not be compared with final forecast benefit caseload data due to be published later this year at Benefit expenditure and caseload tables - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk). The “Benefit expenditure and caseload tables” will reflect OBR’s final Autumn Statement position.
Households affected by changes to LHA rates next year
Estimated number of households who will gain from an increase in LHA rates to the 30th percentile of local rents for 2024/25: 1,600,000
Estimated average annual gain for households who will gain from an increase in LHA rates to the 30th percentile of local rents for 2024/25: £785
Note, number of households is rounded to the nearest 100,000; average gain is rounded to the nearest £5.
Data and Methodology
This analysis is derived from an internal costing model for LHA changes. The costing model is principally based on administrative data: static cost impacts are calculated for those with existing entitlement, using OBR RPI rent projections to forecast forward. The PSM, as covered above, is then used to derive an adjustment for cases that would float on/off the benefit, and those affected by the Benefit Cap. Finally, a spreadsheet model takes these outputs, scales for the department’s latest UCHE and HB forecasts, and then applies an adjustment for behavioural impacts.
Household characteristics of those currently receiving LHA
The following shows the current characteristics of the LHA caseload:
| All LHA claimants | |
|---|---|
| No dependent children | 49% |
| At least one dependent child | 51% |
| All LHA claimants | |
|---|---|
| Under 35 | 30% |
| 35 to 64 | 60% |
| 65 and over | 10% |
| All LHA claimants | |
|---|---|
| At least one person in the household with Equality Act disability | 50% |
| No people in household with Equality Act disability | 50% |
Data and Methodology
This analysis uses administrative data from: the Single House Benefit Extract (SHBE), containing data on HB from Local Authorities; and the UCHE data, containing data collected by the department for Universal Credit. As well as data from the Family Resources Survey for the years 2018/19 through to 2021/22.
Statement of compliance with the Code of Practice for Statistics
The Code of Practice for Statistics (the Code) is built around 3 main concepts, or pillars:
- trustworthiness – having confidence in the people and organisations that publish statistics
- quality – using data and methods that produce statistics
- value – publishing statistics that support society’s needs
The following explains how we have applied the pillars of the Code in a proportionate way in this analysis.
Trustworthiness
The figures were created following interest from Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) ministers, HM Treasury and the Members of Parliament. They are being published now in order to give equal access to all those with an interest in them and better support understanding of the impact of uprating.
Quality
The data that underpins this information is taken from DWP’s Policy Simulation Model, and from DWP’s administrative data, and includes caseload forecasts taken from DWP and HMRC data, with some off-model adjustments.
The information used refers to families and individuals in families who will be affected by benefit uprating, as above.
Value
Releasing this information serves the increased public interest in how the government is supporting the public through cost of living challenges. The figures also help reduce the administrative burden of answering Parliamentary questions, Freedom of Information requests and other forms of ad hoc enquiry.
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This was a Government Commitment to increase pensions by the highest of earnings, prices or 2.5%. ↩
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Attendance Allowance (AA), Bereavement Benefit (BB), Bereavement Support Payment (BSP), Carer’s Allowance (CA), Disability Living Allowance (DLA, Employment and Support Allowance (ESA), Housing Benefit (HB), Incapacity benefit (IB), Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit (IIDB), Income Support (IS), Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA), Personal Independence Payment (PIP), Pension Credit (PC), Severe Disablement Allowance (SDA), State Pension (SP), Universal Credit (UC), Widow’s Benefit (WB). ↩
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A family is defined as a single adult or a married or cohabiting couple and any dependent children. ↩
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The FRS is a continuous household survey which collects information on a representative sample of private households in the United Kingdom - Family Resources Survey - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk). ↩