Alternative Claimant Count statistics January 2013 to February 2021
Published 20 April 2021
Applies to England, Scotland and Wales
© Crown copyright 2021
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This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/alternative-claimant-count-statistics-january-2013-to-february-2021/alternative-claimant-count-statistics-january-2013-to-february-2021
Find the latest release of these statistics in the collection of Alternative Claimant Count statistics.
This release of statistics is to 11 February 2021 and includes revisions to previous statistics. Figures are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise stated. Figures and rates from April 2020 onwards show higher levels of claimant unemployment given the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) and the UK Government’s response.
The next statistical bulletin will be on 15 July 2021.
Feedback and queries about the statistics can be sent by email to stats.consultation-2018@dwp.gov.uk
1. Main Stories
In the United Kingdom, the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits in February 2021 was 2.87 million.
This is a:
- 2.1% increase in the last month
- 4.3% increase in the last quarter
- 104.6% increase in the last year
- 113.7% increase in the last 5 years
Some claimants of unemployment related benefits are wholly unemployed and seeking work, others may be employed but with low earnings that make them eligible for unemployment related benefit support. Of the 2.87 million people claiming unemployment related benefits in February, 10.5% had evidence of earnings or hours worked. In comparison, this employment rate was 16.3% in February 2020 and 13.9% in February 2016. Over the last month, 381,000 people newly claimed unemployment related benefits and 354,000 ceased claiming, pushing up the count.
The claimant unemployment rate (as a proportion of the population aged 16 to 64) in February 2021 was 6.9%. This rate has increased by 0.1 percentage points in the latest month and substantially compared to both February 2020 (+3.5 percentage points) and February 2016 (+3.6 percentage points).
Of the 2.87 million people in the United Kingdom in February 2021:
-
279,000 (10%) were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance and 2.39 million (83%) were in the Searching for Work conditionality group under Universal Credit – the remaining 203,000 (7%) were ‘additionals’
-
1.67 million (58%) were male and 1.20 million (42%) were female – in comparison, males represented 54% in February 2020
-
535,000 (19%) were young people aged 16 to 24 – this compares to 236,000 (17%) in February 2020, and 218,000 (16%) in February 2016
At regional level:
- the highest claimant unemployment rate in February 2021 was for London at 9.4%
- the lowest was for the South West at 5.4%
At local authority level (figures not seasonally adjusted):
- the claimant unemployment rate ranges from 2.6% in the Orkney Islands to 12.1% in Blackpool
- all local authorities saw a rise in the claimant unemployment rate between February 2020 and 2021
2. What you need to know
The Alternative Claimant Count measures the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits. Before 2013 this was simply the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance. However, since the introduction of Universal Credit from April 2013 the count began to incorporate Universal Credit claimants placed in the ‘Searching for Work’ conditionality group.
Under Universal Credit, a broader span of claimants are required to look for work than under Jobseeker’s Allowance. This is a feature of the design of Universal Credit which assigns claimants to conditionality groups that translate to the work-related tasks the individual must do in order to fulfil entitlement conditions. The Searching for Work conditionality group comprises people who are not working, or have very low earnings. The claimant is therefore required to take action to secure work or better paid work. Including these claimants has the effect of increasing the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measure of the Claimant Count irrespective of how the economy performs.
To address this, these Alternative Claimant Count statistics measure the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits by modelling what the count would have been if Universal Credit had been fully rolled out since 2013 (when Universal Credit began) with the broader span of people this covers, comprising:
- Jobseeker’s Allowance.
- Universal Credit – Searching for Work conditionality (excluding those on the health journey pre-Work Capability Assessment).
- Estimates of those additional claimants who would have been Searching for Work under Universal Credit had it existed over the entire time period from 2013.
The Alternative Claimant Count series starts from January 2013. Over a longer period, the Labour Force Survey provides a consistent measure of unemployment at national and regional level. Trends over time for local areas can be considered using the Claimant Count prior to 2013, and the Alternative Claimant Count from 2013. However the figures cannot be directly compared as they are defined differently.
Claimant unemployment has more than doubled in the last year
Comparisons between Alternative Claimant Count, ONS Claimant Count and Labour Force Survey, United Kingdom, February 2007 to February 2021, seasonally adjusted.
Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics and ONS Claimant Count statistics and Labour Force Survey.
To understand the impact of the differences between the two measures, Newcastle-upon-Tyne (which was one of the first local authorities to roll out Universal Credit Full Service to new claimants in May 2016) shows a sharp rise in claimant unemployment as more people were brought into Searching for Work conditionality. But this was irrespective of changes in the local labour market and gave misleading rises in local unemployment estimates, which the Alternative Claimant Count controls for and shows a much flatter trend.
DWP Alternative Claimant Count controls for the rollout of Universal Credit
Newcastle-upon-Tyne local authority – Claimant Count and Alternative Claimant Count comparisons, January 2013 to February 2021, not seasonally adjusted.
Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics and ONS Claimant Count statistics.
It is possible that the Claimant Count can surpass the Alternative Claimant Count in local areas, most usually areas where Universal Credit had been rolled out early. The Alternative Claimant Count includes estimates of those additional claimants who would have been Searching for Work under Universal Credit had it existed over the entire time period from 2013, but removes claimants on the health journey pre-Work Capability Assessment. Initially, this will cause the Alternative Claimant Count to show larger figures than the Claimant Count, as there will be more additional claimants included than health journey cases removed. However, as Universal Credit rolls out over time and the additional claimants begin to transition to Universal Credit, this weighting begins to shift.
Compared to the ONS Claimant Count, the alternative series provides a more consistent measure of trends in national and local levels of claimant unemployment over time irrespective of the rollout of Universal Credit. The ONS Claimant Count continues to provide an accurate count, at a point in time, of the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits.
Enhancements to Universal Credit as part of the UK government’s response to the coronavirus mean that an increasing number of people became eligible for unemployment-related benefit support, although still employed. Consequently, changes in the Claimant Count may not be due wholly to changes in the number of people who are unemployed.
National and regional figures are seasonally adjusted. The purpose of this is to remove systematic calendar-related variation associated with the time of the year which could otherwise cause misinterpretation of trends within the data. This facilitates comparisons between consecutive time periods, rather than just year-on-year. Our approach to seasonal adjustment is consistent with the approach used by ONS for the Claimant Count. About these statistics contains more information about the process used.
Figures in this bulletin are rounded in accordance with the DWP rounding policy for statistics. Perturbed figures from the underlying data available on Stat Xplore or in accompanying tables may not sum exactly to the rounded totals accordingly.
3. United Kingdom
In the United Kingdom, the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits in February 2021 was 2.87 million. This is a 104.6% increase from February 2020.
Claims for Jobseeker’s Allowance had been falling prior to Universal Credit roll out (linked to an improving labour market) and during Universal Credit roll out (linked to the transition of claims to Universal Credit). However, there has been a recent upturn primarily linked to the coronavirus pandemic and the UK Government’s response. At February 2021, just over 4 in 5 claimants of unemployment benefits were covered by the Universal Credit Searching for Work conditionality group (83%). In comparison, 69% were in this group at February 2020. As managed migration to Universal Credit continues, this rate will continue to rise whilst the rates for the other groups will continue to fall.
Numbers claiming and migrating to Universal Credit rise as Additionals continue to fall
Number of people claiming unemployment related benefits by type of claimant, United Kingdom, January 2013 to February 2021, seasonally adjusted.
Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics.
The overall rate of people claiming unemployment related benefits as a proportion of the resident population aged 16-64 in February 2021 was 6.9%, a rise of 3.5 percentage points compared to February 2020 (3.4%) and 3.6 percentage points compared to February 2016 (3.2%).
Rates of people claiming unemployment related benefits have more than doubled since March 2020
Monthly claimant unemployment rate by gender, United Kingdom, January 2013 to February 2021, seasonally adjusted.
Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics and ONS Claimant Count population statistics.
Gender
The gender split of claimants began to equalise over time but has shown a sharp rise in the proportion of male claimants since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. In February 2016, 54% of claimants were male. Over time, that proportion began to gradually decrease to around 53% in February 2020 but increased to 58% in February 2021.
Proportion of male claimants of unemployment related benefits increase from March 2020
Monthly number of people claiming unemployment related benefits by gender, United Kingdom, February 2020 to February 2021, seasonally adjusted.
| Month | Male | Female | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | 1,665,223 | 1,201,914 | 2,867,136 |
| January 2021 | 1,634,995 | 1,174,188 | 2,809,183 |
| December 2020 | 1,618,877 | 1,169,358 | 2,788,234 |
| November 2020 | 1,593,595 | 1,156,156 | 2,749,751 |
| October 2020 | 1,556,760 | 1,127,681 | 2,684,441 |
| September 2020 | 1,549,544 | 1,123,466 | 2,673,010 |
| August 2020 | 1,528,679 | 1,113,412 | 2,642,090 |
| July 2020 | 1,486,096 | 1,090,715 | 2,576,811 |
| June 2020 | 1,468,604 | 1,076,030 | 2,544,634 |
| May 2020 | 1,525,470 | 1,092,868 | 2,618,338 |
| April 2020 | 1,156,512 | 889,089 | 2,045,601 |
| March 2020 | 730,367 | 625,227 | 1,355,594 |
| February 2020 | 757,936 | 643,592 | 1,401,527 |
Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics.
Age
All age groups have seen an increase in claimant unemployment over the last year. Youth claimant unemployment (those aged 16 to 24) has seen the largest increase, more than doubling in the last year. Young people make up 19% of total claimant unemployment.
Additionals
The additional group of unemployed claimants are estimates of those who would have been Searching for Work under Universal Credit had it existed over the entire time period from 2013. This covers:
- people who are not in work but previously claimed Housing Benefit only, this means did not claim Jobseeker’s Allowance
- people whose household previously claimed Child Tax Credit from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), but are not themselves earning more than the Universal Credit administrative earnings threshold; and nor do they have responsibility as the main carer for their child
- people who are the partner of a claimant of Employment and Support Allowance or Income Support, but who do not themselves have caring responsibilities, a disability or a limitation on their ability to work
Of the 2.87 million people claiming unemployment benefits in February 2021, 203,000 (7%) were ‘additionals’. This is a decrease of 70,000 (26%) on the previous year.
The majority of additional claimants are covered by two main groups. The largest group of additionals are those people not in work but claiming Housing Benefit only, followed by those claiming Child Tax Credits.
4. Regional
Of the 2.87 million people claiming unemployment benefits in February 2021, almost a fifth (565,000) were living in London. The next highest region was the North West with 331,000, followed by the South East with 326,000.
Compared to February 2020, all regions saw increases in claimant unemployment. The North East saw the smallest increase at 57%, whilst London saw the largest increase of 148% on the previous year.
The highest claimant unemployment rate in the United Kingdom in February 2021 was for London (9.4%). The next highest was for the West Midlands (7.9%). The region with the lowest claimant unemployment rate was the South West (5.4%). For information on all regions, ODS tables are provided alongside this release.
All regions have seen a rise of claimant unemployment compared to the same time last year.
Claimant unemployment rate by region, United Kingdom, February 2021, seasonally adjusted.
| Region | Claimant unemployment rate 2020 (%) | Claimant unemployment rate 2021 (%) |
|---|---|---|
| North East | 4.7 | 7.3 |
| North West | 3.9 | 7.3 |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 3.8 | 7.0 |
| East Midlands | 3.0 | 5.9 |
| West Midlands | 4.3 | 7.9 |
| East | 2.7 | 6.0 |
| London | 3.8 | 9.4 |
| South East | 2.5 | 5.8 |
| South West | 2.4 | 5.4 |
| Wales | 3.5 | 6.2 |
| Scotland | 3.4 | 6.2 |
| Northern Ireland | 2.9 | 5.5 |
Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics
5. Local area
In February 2021, the highest claimant unemployment rate across all local authorities was Blackpool (12.1%). The next highest was Haringey (11.9%) followed by Birmingham (11.7%).
The local authorities with the lowest claimant unemployment rates were the Orkney Islands (2.6%), the Shetland Islands (3.0%) and Richmondshire (3.0%).
Rates are calculated by dividing the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits in a local authority by the population aged 16 to 64 in that local authority. They are calculated using the mid-2019 population estimates as, at the time of release, this was the latest data available
All local areas see increases in claimant unemployment when compared to February 2020
Claimant unemployment rate by local authority, United Kingdom, February 2020 and February 2021 (based on February 2021 quintiles), not seasonally adjusted.
Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count statistics and ONS Claimant Count population statistics.
When classifying claimant unemployment data into quintiles (5 bands each containing approximately 76 local authorities), the top quintile (the group of local authorities with the highest levels of claimant unemployment) includes most of London, eastern parts of the North East, southern parts of the North West, southern parts of Yorkshire and the Humber, south western parts of Scotland, coastal areas within the South East, and Birmingham.
In contrast, the bottom quintile (group of local authorities with the lowest levels of claimant unemployment) covers areas including the majority of the East, South East and the West Midlands.
Haringey saw the largest percentage point increase in claimant unemployment rate over the last year (up 7.6 percentage points). Newham saw the second largest rise (also up 7.6 percentage points) followed by Brent (up 7.1 percentage points).
The smallest increase was in the Orkney Islands (up 1.2 percentage points), followed by the Shetland Islands (up 1.2 percentage points) and Richmondshire (up 1.6 percentage points).
6. Flows
Stat-Xplore includes newly published standardised statistics on:
- On-flows – the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits in one month, who were not claiming in the previous month
- Off-flows – the number of people no longer claiming unemployment related benefits in one month, who were claiming in the previous month
These statistics are available by month (February 2013 to February 2021), by local area, benefit type and by age/gender. They offer some insights to users on monthly changes in a local area - for example the proportion of the Count which represents new claims in the previous month, and the off-flow rate - a measure of how the local labour market is performing.
New flows in claimant unemployment increased substantially in May and June 2020
Flows between claimant unemployment, United Kingdom, February 2013 to February 2021, standardised and seasonally adjusted.
Source: DWP Alternative Claimant Count on-flow and off-flow statistics.
Claimant unemployment net flows had been slowly decreasing until the end of 2018. Net flows had been in steady state until a substantial rise in on-flows in April 2020, primarily linked to coronavirus and the government response. Since then, the number of on-flows has reduced but remain above the historic average.
The statistics released in Stat-Xplore allows users to produce local area analyses of flows over time.
7. About these statistics
The statistics are experimental Official Statistics, badged as provisional (for the latest 3 months) and are subject to revision in future releases.
Estimates of claimants in work: Those claiming unemployment-related benefits may be wholly unemployed and seeking work, or may be employed but with low income and/or low hours, that make them eligible for unemployment-related benefit support.
Enhancements to Universal Credit (UC) as part of the UK government’s response to the coronavirus mean that some additional people became eligible for unemployment-related benefit support, although still employed. The reduction in individual worker’s pay, as a result of the government schemes to protect businesses (Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and Self Employed Income Support Scheme), may have also increased the number of employed people eligible for UC through their earnings falling below income thresholds. Some of these claims will fall within the work search conditionality group within UC.
Figures are estimates; using evidence of claimants’ earnings/hours worked in their latest assessment period to estimate the proportion who are jobless and those who are (or have recently been) working (excluding those self-employed). Figures include those with reported Pay as you Earn (PAYE) income in their most recent UC Assessment Period, those reporting part-time hours worked on Jobseeker’s Allowance, and hours worked/income from earnings from those on Child Tax Credits or Housing Benefit.
Like many economic indicators, the labour market is affected by factors that tend to occur at around the same time every year; for example, school leavers entering the labour market in July and whether Easter falls in March or April. In order to compare changes over time that are not driven by seasonal factors, the data has been seasonally adjusted. This allows for comparisons between consecutive time periods, for example, to the previous quarter or month. All figures stated in this statistical release are seasonally adjusted except where otherwise stated. Figures at local authority level and below are not seasonally adjusted as a meaningful multiplicative model which contains other metrics cannot be produced at such a low level of data.
The background and methodology document provides a fuller explanation on the purpose, coverage, construction, sources and limitations of the statistics. For example, this includes an explanation of why the back series starts in 2013 (linked to data availability) and on how the claimant unemployment rates have been calculated.
Lead Statistician: Steve Watkins
ISBN: 978-1-78659-321-4