Independent report

Data tables (accessible)

Published 12 May 2026

This spreadsheet contains the original data tables that accompany the charts and tables in the main report.

The MAC have carried out analysis using Home Office Migrant Journey data, Home Office visa records and Home Office Certificate of Sponsorship (CoS) data.

We have included key caveats and limitations where possible, however please refer to the source data for detailed descriptions of the methodology and caveats.

Produced by Migration Advisory Committee.

Chapter 2: Data and Methodology

Table 2.1: MJ record link rates by year and in-country/out-of-country status

Year	In-country visa link rate	Out-of-country visa link rate
2014	95%	94%
2015	95%	96%
2016	96%	97%
2017	97%	98%
2018	97%	98%
2019	93%	98%
2020	90%	95%
2021	98%	97%
2022	97%	97%
2023	98%	97%
2024	97%	97%
Total	97%	97%

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Chapter 3: Descriptive Statistics

Figure 3.1: Observations by year of first Skilled Worker visa

Year	Number of observations
2014	23,000
2015	20,000
2016	19,000
2017	21,000
2018	26,000
2019	38,000
2020	33,000
2021	85,000
2022	187,000
2023	296,000
2024	168,000
Total	916,000

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Figure 3.2: December 2024 leave status by year cohort

Cohort	Proportion with expired leave	Proportion with valid visas	Proportion with ILR	Proportion with citizenship
2014	34%	2%	16%	48%
2015	34%	2%	18%	46%
2016	32%	3%	20%	45%
2017	30%	5%	24%	42%
2018	26%	7%	44%	24%
2019	20%	21%	56%	3%
2020	12%	82%	5%	1%
2021	12%	86%	2%	0%
2022	4%	96%	0%	0%
2023	2%	98%	0%	0%
2024	1%	99%	0%	0%

Source: MAC internal analysis. Note: Figure shows leave status on the 31 December 2024.

Figure 3.3: Leave expiry frequency by time since first Skilled Worker visa

Days since first SW visa	Expiries
0-91	700
91-183	1,500
183-274	2,000
274-365	3,400
365-457	7,300
457-548	1,000
548-639	1,500
639-730	2,700
730-822	6,300
822-913	900
913-1000	1,200
1000-1100	5,600
1100-1190	19,200
1190-1280	600
1280-1370	600
1370-1460	700
1460-1550	1,100
1550-1640	500
1640-1730	400
1730-1830	1,300
1830-1920	7,300
1920-2010	400
2010-2100	400
2100-2190	900
2190-2280	1,500
2280-2370	100
2370-2470	-
2470-2560	-
2560-2650	-
2650-2740	-
2740-2830	-
2830-2920	-
2920-3010	-
3010-3100	-
3100-3200	-
3200-3290	-
3290-3380	-
3380-3470	-
3470-3560	-
3560-3650	-
3650-3740	-
3740-3840	-
3840-3930	-
3930-4020	-

Source: MAC internal analysis.  Note: Values marked with ‘-‘ have less than 100 observations.

Figure 3.4: Previous leave subcategory of those obtaining first Skilled Worker visa in-country

Previous leave subcategory	Cohort	Number of in-country migrants transferring to first skilled worker visa
Student	2014-2020	43,700
Tier 1 - Post Study	2014-2020	5,900
Tier 2 - Intra-company transfer	2014-2020	800
Youth Mobility Scheme	2014-2020	600
Tier 1 - Entrepreneur	2014-2020	600
Student	2021-2024	137,800
Graduate	2021-2024	58,900
Tier 2 - Intra-company transfer (long-term staff)	2021-2024	14,900
Youth Mobility Scheme	2021-2024	6,400
Dependants joining or accompanying	2021-2024	5,200

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Figure 3.5: Nationality of skilled worker migrants and whether their first skilled worker visa was granted in-country or out-of-country

Nationality	In-country skilled worker visas granted	Out-of-country skilled worker visas granted
India	120,000	172,000
Nigeria	55,000	53,000
Pakistan	18,000	38,000
Philippines	1,000	48,000
Zimbabwe	1,000	38,000
United States	8,000	27,000
China	19,000	8,000
Bangladesh	10,000	17,000
Ghana	4,000	21,000
South Africa	1,000	15,000

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Note: Shows the top 10 nationalities from 2014 to 2024.

Table 3.1: Characteristics of migrants with or without valid immigration status five years after receiving their first Skilled Worker visa

Variable	Valid immigration status (assumed to have remained in the UK)	Expired immigration status (assumed to have left the UK)
Demographic and salary variables
Average age on entry	30.6	32.3
% Male	55.2%	63.2%
% Obtaining first Skilled Worker visa in-country	32.2%	27.1%
Average annual salary on entry (2024 earnings level)	£70,900	£94,400
% in London based role	44.4%	43.6%
Industry breakdown
% Education	11.5%	24.7%
% Financial and insurance activities	12.4%	10.2%
% Human health and social work activities	32.2%	17.1%
% Information and communications	11.5%	11.8%
% Professional, scientific and technical activities	16.1%	16.5%
% Other industries	16.2%	19.7%
Number of observations	117,400*	29,700*

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Note: Valid immigration status means an individual continues to hold a valid visa, indefinite leave to remain, or citizenship. Table includes individuals receiving their first Skilled Worker visa on a migrant journey between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2019. Industry breakdown shows the percentage of migrants working in each industry by group. The total number of observations are approximately 3% lower for CoS dependent variables (salary, % in London based role and industry) given that match rates were not 100%.

Chapter 4: Results

Figure 4.1: Stay rate by year of first Skilled Worker visa

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Note: For brevity and to ensure outputs are not disclosive of individuals, the results have been aggregated on the annual rather than daily level. Valid immigration status includes those with valid visas, ILR and citizenship.

2014 cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	96%
3	90%
4	77%
5	74%
6	69%
7	67%
8	67%
9	66%
10	66%
11	66%

2015 cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	96%
3	90%
4	79%
5	77%
6	69%
7	66%
8	66%
9	66%
10	66%

2016 cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	96%
3	90%
4	80%
5	77%
6	71%
7	68%
8	68%
9	68%

2017 cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	96%
3	91%
4	81%
5	79%
6	72%
7	71%
8	70%

2018 cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	96%
3	91%
4	84%
5	82%
6	76%
7	74%

2019 cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	97%
3	94%
4	86%
5	85%
6	79%

2020 cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	97%
3	94%
4	88%
5	86%

2021 cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	97%
3	94%
4	86%

2022 cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	97%
3	94%

2023 cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	98%

2024 cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	98%

Figure 4.2: Stay rate by nationality

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Note: For brevity and to ensure outputs are not disclosive of individuals, the results have been aggregated on the annual rather than daily level. Valid immigration status includes those with valid visas, ILR and citizenship.

Bangladesh

Year	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	100%
2	99%
3	95%
4	90%
5	88%
6	87%
7	86%
8	86%
9	86%
10	86%
11	85%

China

Year	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	95%
3	87%
4	75%
5	72%
6	67%
7	65%
8	65%
9	65%
10	65%
11	64%

Ghana

Year	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	100%
2	99%
3	98%
4	94%
5	93%
6	89%
7	89%
8	89%
9	89%
10	88%
11	88%

India

Year	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	100%
2	98%
3	95%
4	88%
5	87%
6	82%
7	81%
8	80%
9	80%
10	80%
11	80%

Nigeria

Year	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	100%
2	99%
3	98%
4	94%
5	94%
6	92%
7	91%
8	91%
9	91%
10	91%
11	91%

Pakistan

Year	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	98%
3	95%
4	90%
5	89%
6	88%
7	87%
8	87%
9	87%
10	87%
11	86%

Philippines

Year	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	100%
2	99%
3	98%
4	93%
5	92%
6	88%
7	86%
8	85%
9	85%
10	85%
11	85%

South Africa

Year	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	97%
3	93%
4	81%
5	79%
6	73%
7	72%
8	71%
9	71%
10	71%
11	71%

United States

Year	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	97%
2	93%
3	87%
4	70%
5	67%
6	49%
7	45%
8	44%
9	44%
10	43%
11	43%

Zimbabwe

Year	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	100%
2	99%
3	98%
4	93%
5	91%
6	89%
7	88%
8	88%
9	87%
10	87%
11	91%

Other

Year	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	98%
2	95%
3	89%
4	80%
5	78%
6	71%
7	69%
8	68%
9	68%
10	68%
11	68%

Figure 4.3: Five-year stay rate by GDP per capita (PPP) of country of nationality

Country	Five year stay rate (% with valid immigration status after five years)	GDP per capita (2024 prices)
Albania	85%	£27,100
Algeria	80%	£17,600
Argentina	75%	£30,400
Australia	61%	£72,100
Azerbaijan	80%	£25,100
Bahrain	75%	£66,900
Bangladesh	85%	£9,600
Barbados	80%	£24,800
Belarus	83%	£33,000
Brazil	78%	£22,300
Burma (Myanmar)	93%	£6,000
Cameroon	76%	£5,600
Canada	70%	£64,600
Chile	65%	£36,200
China	70%	£27,100
Colombia	72%	£22,300
Egypt	88%	£19,100
Ghana	91%	£8,000
Guyana	84%	£80,200
Hong Kong	81%	£75,200
India	83%	£11,200
Indonesia	76%	£16,400
Iran	85%	£19,900
Iraq	80%	£14,500
Israel	72%	£57,200
Jamaica	85%	£12,900
Japan	63%	£52,000
Jordan	83%	£10,800
Kazakhstan	82%	£40,900
Kenya	80%	£6,600
Libya	90%	£14,300
Malaysia	79%	£38,800
Mauritius	86%	£31,800
Mexico	75%	£26,200
Morocco	83%	£10,400
Nepal	79%	£5,700
New Zealand	67%	£55,600
Nigeria	93%	£9,100
Pakistan	87%	£6,300
Peru	80%	£17,800
Philippines	92%	£11,800
Russia	85%	£47,400
Saudi Arabia	55%	£71,400
Serbia	80%	£32,800
Singapore	73%	£150,700
South Africa	75%	£15,500
South Korea	66%	£61,100
Sri Lanka	74%	£15,600
Sudan	92%	£2,100
Tanzania	84%	£4,200
Thailand	64%	£24,700
Trinidad and Tobago	85%	£36,300
Tunisia	82%	£14,500
Turkey	85%	£45,600
Uganda	81%	£3,300
Ukraine	85%	£18,600
United States	66%	£85,800
Vietnam	81%	£16,400
Zambia	87%	£4,200
Zimbabwe	88%	£5,900

Source: MAC internal analysis using GDP per capita data from the World Bank.

Note: Analysis includes all nationalities with 100 or more first Skilled Worker journeys in sample period (2014-2019) aside from those for which the World Bank does not publish GDP per capita data (e.g. Taiwan, Lebanon and Syria). Only nationalities with 1000 or more first Skilled Worker journeys in the sample period are labelled on the chart, although, some overlapping labels have been removed for readability. Solid line shows the linear relationship between GDP per capita and five-year stay rate. The shaded band shows the 95% confidence interval for the fitted line (mean stay rate for a given GDP per capita) around this estimate.

Figure 4.4: Stay rate by age at first Skilled Worker visa

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Note: For brevity and to ensure outputs are not disclosive of individuals, the results have been aggregated on the annual rather than daily level. Valid immigration status includes those with valid visas, ILR and citizenship.

Aged <25

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	97%
3	93%
4	84%
5	82%
6	77%
7	75%
8	74%
9	74%
10	74%
11	74%

25-34

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	97%
3	93%
4	86%
5	84%
6	78%
7	76%
8	76%
9	76%
10	75%
11	75%

35-44

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	97%
3	93%
4	84%
5	82%
6	74%
7	72%
8	71%
9	71%
10	71%
11	70%

45-54

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	96%
3	91%
4	78%
5	74%
6	58%
7	54%
8	54%
9	53%
10	53%
11	52%

55+

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	96%
2	90%
3	81%
4	62%
5	56%
6	36%
7	31%
8	30%
9	30%
10	29%
11	29%

Figure 4.5: Stay rate by gender

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Note: For brevity and to ensure outputs are not disclosive of individuals, the results have been aggregated on the annual rather than daily level. Valid immigration status includes those with valid visas, ILR and citizenship.

Male

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	96%
3	91%
4	82%
5	80%
6	73%
7	71%
8	70%
9	70%
10	70%
11	70%

Female

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	98%
3	95%
4	87%
5	85%
6	80%
7	77%
8	77%
9	77%
10	76%
11	76%

Figure 4.6: Stay rate by application location

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Note: For brevity and to ensure outputs are not disclosive of individuals, the results have been aggregated on the annual rather than daily level. Valid immigration status includes those with valid visas, ILR and citizenship.

In-country

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	98%
3	94%
4	87%
5	86%
6	83%
7	81%
8	81%
9	81%
10	81%
11	81%

Out-of-country

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	97%
3	93%
4	83%
5	81%
6	73%
7	70%
8	70%
9	70%
10	69%
11	69%

Figure 4.7: Stay rate by salary and visa start date cohort

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Note: For brevity and to ensure outputs are not disclosive of individuals, the results have been aggregated on the annual rather than daily level. Salaries are inflated to reflect 2024 earning levels. Valid immigration status includes those with valid visas, ILR and citizenship.

2014-2016 cohort

<£40,000 sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	98%
3	92%
4	82%
5	80%
6	78%
7	77%
8	77%
9	76%
10	76%
11	76%

£40,000-£50,000 sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	98%
2	94%
3	86%
4	75%
5	72%
6	69%
7	67%
8	67%
9	67%
10	67%
11	67%

£50,000-£75,000 sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	97%
3	90%
4	79%
5	76%
6	71%
7	69%
8	69%
9	68%
10	68%
11	68%

£75,000-£125,000 sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	97%
3	94%
4	80%
5	79%
6	65%
7	62%
8	62%
9	62%
10	62%
11	62%

£125,000+ sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	98%
2	96%
3	91%
4	73%
5	70%
6	51%
7	45%
8	45%
9	44%
10	44%
11	43%

2017-2019 cohort

<£40,000 sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	99%
3	96%
4	91%
5	90%
6	87%
7	84%
8	84%

£40,000-£50,000 sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	98%
2	93%
3	86%
4	77%
5	74%
6	71%
7	70%
8	69%

£50,000-£75,000 sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	97%
3	92%
4	85%
5	83%
6	78%
7	77%
8	76%

£75,000-£125,000 sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	96%
3	93%
4	85%
5	84%
6	74%
7	73%
8	72%

£125,000+ sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	97%
3	92%
4	79%
5	76%
6	55%
7	53%
8	52%

2020-2022 cohort

<£40,000 sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	98%
3	96%
4	89%
5	88%

£40,000-£50,000 sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	98%
2	95%
3	89%
4	82%
5	79%

£50,000-£75,000 sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	96%
3	92%
4	85%
5	82%

£75,000-£125,000 sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	97%
3	95%
4	88%
5	85%

£125,000+ sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	97%
3	93%
4	84%
5	81%

2023-2024 cohort

<£40,000 sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	98%

£40,000-£50,000 sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	98%
2	94%

£50,000-£75,000 sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	97%
2	93%

£75,000-£125,000 sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	97%
2	95%

£125,000+ sub-cohort

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	97%
2	95%

Figure 4.8: Stay rate by industry

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Note: For brevity and to ensure outputs are not disclosive of individuals, the results have been aggregated on the annual rather than daily level. Valid immigration status includes those with valid visas, ILR and citizenship.

Education

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	97%
2	89%
3	79%
4	70%
5	66%
6	62%
7	60%
8	59%
9	59%
10	59%
11	58%

Financial and Insurance Activities

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	98%
2	97%
3	95%
4	84%
5	83%
6	73%
7	70%
8	69%
9	69%
10	69%
11	68%

Human Health and Social Work Activities

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	100%
2	98%
3	96%
4	91%
5	90%
6	87%
7	85%
8	85%
9	85%
10	85%
11	84%

Information and Communications

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	97%
3	93%
4	84%
5	82%
6	72%
7	70%
8	70%
9	69%
10	69%
11	69%

Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	97%
3	92%
4	81%
5	80%
6	73%
7	71%
8	70%
9	70%
10	70%
11	70%

Other

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	96%
3	91%
4	81%
5	79%
6	70%
7	68%
8	68%
9	67%
10	67%
11	67%

Figure 4.9: Stay rate by occupation

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Note: For brevity and to ensure outputs are not disclosive of individuals, the results have been aggregated on the annual rather than daily level. SOC codes are presented in the 2010 format. Valid immigration status includes those with valid visas, ILR and citizenship.

*Incomplete year, presented data is stay rate at final available data point.

Natural and social science professionals n.e.c.

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	96%
2	85%
3	72%
4	62%
5	57%
6	54%
7	52%
8	52%
9	52%
10	51%
11	51%

IT business analysts, architects and systems designers

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	98%
3	94%
4	87%
5	86%
6	80%
7	78%
8	78%
9	78%
10	77%
11	77%

Programmers and software development professionals

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	98%
3	95%
4	87%
5	86%
6	76%
7	74%
8	74%
9	74%
10	74%
11	74%

Medical practitioners

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	93%
3	88%
4	85%
5	83%
6	82%
7	81%
8	81%
9	81%
10	81%
11	81%

Nurses

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	100%
2	100%
3	99%
4	94%
5	93%
6	89%
7	87%
8	86%
9	86%
10	86%
11	86%

Management consultants and business analysts

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	98%
3	95%
4	84%
5	83%
6	75%
7	73%
8	73%
9	72%
10	72%
11	72%

Care workers and home carers

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	100%
2	99%
3*	99%

Senior care workers

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	100%
2	100%
3	97%
4*	95%

All other occupations

Years since arrival	Stay rate (% with valid immigration status)
0	100%
1	99%
2	96%
3	92%
4	81%
5	79%
6	71%
7	68%
8	68%
9	67%
10	67%
11	67%

Figure 4.10: Stay rate by UK nations and regions

Region	Stay rate among skilled worker visa holders
East Midlands	81%
East of England	82%
London	80%
North East	80%
North West	80%
Northern Ireland	81%
Scotland	73%
South East	79%
South West	81%
Wales	78%
West Midlands	83%
Yorkshire and the Humber	78%

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Table 4.1: Logistic regression results presented in odds ratios

Variable	Odds Ratio	Lower or higher odds of holding valid immigration status after five years? (compared to reference)
Visa application was submitted out-of-country	0.71***	Lower
Applicant is female	1.27***	Higher
Age at entry (reference: age less than 25)
25-34	1.31***	Higher
35-44	1.14***	Higher
45-54	0.85***	Lower
55+	0.53***	Lower
Region of origin (reference: Europe – non-EU)
Africa	1.04	Not statistically significant
Western Asia	0.80***	Lower
Southern Asia	0.80***	Lower
Asia (other)	0.57***	Lower
Latin America and the Caribbean	0.67***	Lower
North America	0.41***	Lower
Oceania	0.30***	Lower
Industry (reference: all other industries)
Education	0.52***	Lower
Financial and insurance activities	1.39***	Higher
Human health and social work activities	1.77***	Higher
Information and communications	1.02	Not statistically significant
Professional, scientific and technical activities	1.04	Not statistically significant
Employer UK nation or region (reference: London)
East Midlands	0.90**	Lower
East of England	0.94*	Lower
North East	0.99	Not statistically significant
North West	0.81***	Lower
Northern Ireland	0.87*	Lower
Scotland	0.76***	Lower
South East	0.86***	Lower
South West	0.92*	Lower
Wales	0.72***	Lower
West Midlands	0.96	Not statistically significant
Yorkshire and the Humber	0.90*	Lower
Year of entry (reference: 2014)
2015	1.27***	Higher
2016	1.36***	Higher
2017	1.50***	Higher
2018	1.70***	Higher
2019	1.91***	Higher

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Note: *** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05. No asterisk signifies that the result is not statistically significant. All values in the table are rounded to two decimal places.

Figure 4.11: Logistic regression results presented in odds ratios

Variable	Raw Odds Ratio	Adjusted Odds Ratio	Lower or higher odds of holding valid immigration status after five years? (compared to reference)
Visa application was submitted out-of-country	0.82	0.71***	Lower
Applicant is female	1.42	1.27***	Higher
Age at entry (reference: age less than 25)
25-34	1.03	1.31***	Higher
35-44	0.8	1.14***	Higher
45-54	0.5	0.85***	Lower
55+	0.26	0.53***	Lower
Region of origin (reference: Europe – non-EU)
Africa	1.16	1.04	Not statistically significant
Western Asia	0.81	0.80***	Lower
Southern Asia	0.94	0.80***	Lower
Asia (other)	0.75	0.57***	Lower
Latin America and the Caribbean	0.67	0.67***	Lower
North America	0.38	0.41***	Lower
Oceania	0.31	0.30***	Lower
Industry (reference: all other industries)
Education	0.57	0.52***	Lower
Financial and insurance activities	1.51	1.39***	Higher
Human health and social work activities	2.35	1.77***	Higher
Information and communications	1.19	1.02	Not statistically significant
Professional, scientific and technical activities	1.21	1.04	Not statistically significant
Employer UK nation or region (reference: London)
East Midlands	1.07	0.90**	Lower
East of England	1.14	0.94*	Lower
North East	0.96	0.99	Not statistically significant
North West	0.96	0.81***	Lower
Northern Ireland	1.07	0.87*	Lower
Scotland	0.65	0.76***	Lower
South East	0.9	0.86***	Lower
South West	1.04	0.92*	Lower
Wales	0.85	0.72***	Lower
West Midlands	1.17	0.96	Not statistically significant
Yorkshire and the Humber	0.85	0.90*	Lower
Year of entry (reference: 2014)
2015	1.15	1.27***	Higher
2016	1.25	1.36***	Higher
2017	1.39	1.50***	Higher
2018	1.68	1.70***	Higher
2019	2.09	1.91***	Higher

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Note: For adjusted ORs *** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05. No asterisk signifies that the adjusted OR is not statistically significant. European nationality group includes non-EU countries only with Russians and Ukrainians being the most commonly occurring. The dark blue line surrounding each adjusted OR shows the range of values in its 95% confidence interval.

Table 4.2: Occupation logistic regression results: odds ratios

Occupation (reference: all other occupations)	Odds Ratio	Lower or higher odds of holding valid immigration status after five years? (compared to reference)
Natural and social science professionals	0.35***	Lower
IT business analysts, architects and systems designers	1.35***	Higher
Programmers and software development professionals	1.32***	Higher
Medical practitioners	1.17***	Higher
Nurses	3.93***	Higher
Management consultants and business analysts	1.17***	Higher

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Note: *** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05. No asterisk signifies that the result is not statistically significant. All values in the table are rounded to two decimal places. We control for the full set of covariates presented in Table 4.1 with the exception of industry due to the risk of multicollinearity; the odds ratios for factors we have previously controlled for have been omitted for brevity.

Table 4.3: Salary band logistic regression results: odds ratios

Salary band (reference: <£40,000)	Odds Ratio	Lower or higher odds of holding valid immigration status after five years? (compared to reference)
£40,000-£50,000	0.52***	Lower
£50,000-£75,000	0.77***	Lower
£75,000-£125,000	0.94*	Lower
£125,000+	0.86***	Lower

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Note: *** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05. No asterisk signifies that the result is not statistically significant. All values in the table are rounded to two decimal places. We control for the full set of covariates presented in Table 4.1 with the exception of industry and age due to the risk of multicollinearity; age band was found to be highly correlated with salary. The odds ratios for factors we have previously controlled for have been omitted for brevity. Salaries have been adjusted to 2024 earning levels.

Annex

Figure A.1: Full occupation logistic regression results presented in odds ratios

fir	Raw Odds Ratio	Adjusted Odds Ratio	Lower or higher odds of holding valid immigration status after five years? (compared to reference)
Visa application was submitted out-of-country	0.82	0.65***	Lower
Applicant is female	1.42	1.14***	Higher
Age at entry (reference: age less than 25)
25-34	1.03	1.31***	Higher
35-44	0.8	1.15***	Higher
45-54	0.5	0.84***	Lower
55+	0.26	0.51***	Lower
Region of origin (reference: Europe – non-EU)
Africa	1.16	1.12*	Higher
Western Asia	0.81	0.85**	Lower
Southern Asia	0.94	0.79***	Lower
Asia (other)	0.75	0.53***	Lower
Latin America and the Caribbean	0.67	0.65***	Lower
North America	0.38	0.43***	Lower
Oceania	0.31	0.34***	Lower
Occupation (reference: all other occupations)
Natural and social science professionals	0.39	0.35***	Lower
IT business analysts, architects and system designers	1.63	1.35***	Higher
Programmers and development professionals	1.58	1.32***	Higher
Medical practitioners	1.55	1.17***	Higher
Management consultants and business analysts	1.38	1.17***	Higher
Nurses	4.46	3.93***	Higher
Employer UK nation or region (reference: London)
East Midlands	1.07	0.86***	Lower
East of England	1.14	0.92**	Lower
North East	0.96	0.92	Not statistically significant
North West	0.96	0.77***	Lower
Northern Ireland	1.07	0.77***	Lower
Scotland	0.65	0.78***	Lower
South East	0.9	0.81***	Lower
South West	1.04	0.89***	Lower
Wales	0.85	0.78***	Lower
West Midlands	1.17	1.01	Not statistically significant
Yorkshire and the Humber	0.85	0.95	Not statistically significant
Year of entry (reference: 2014)
2015	1.15	1.31***	Higher
2016	1.25	1.42***	Higher
2017	1.39	1.57***	Higher
2018	1.68	1.75***	Higher
2019	2.09	1.88***	Higher

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Note: For adjusted ORs *** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05. No asterisk signifies that the adjusted OR is not statistically significant. European nationality group includes non-EU countries only with Russians and Ukrainians being the most commonly occurring. The dark blue line surrounding each adjusted OR shows the range of values in its 95% confidence interval.

Figure A.2: Full salaries logistic regression results presented in odds ratios

Variable	Raw Odds Ratio	Adjusted Odds Ratio	Lower or higher odds of holding valid immigration status after five years? (compared to reference)
Visa application was submitted out-of-country	0.82	0.79***	Lower
Applicant is female	1.42	1.39***	Higher
Region of origin (reference: Europe – non-EU)
Africa	1.16	1.3***	Higher
Western Asia	0.81	0.81***	Lower
Southern Asia	0.94	0.95	Not statistically significant
Asia (other)	0.75	0.65***	Lower
Latin America and the Caribbean	0.67	0.67***	Lower
North America	0.38	0.36***	Lower
Oceania	0.31	0.32***	Lower
Salary band (reference: < £40,000)
£40,000-£50,000	0.44	0.52***	Lower
£50,000-£75,000	0.66	0.77***	Lower
£75,000-£125,000	0.73	0.94*	Lower
£125,000+	0.45	0.86***	Lower
Employer UK nation or region (reference: London)
East Midlands	1.07	0.88**	Lower
East of England	1.14	0.96	Not statistically significant
North East	0.96	0.92 (.)	Lower
North West	0.96	0.78***	Lower
Northern Ireland	1.07	0.92	Not statistically significant
Scotland	0.65	0.69***	Lower
South East	0.9	0.82***	Lower
South West	1.04	0.88***	Lower
Wales	0.85	0.72***	Lower
West Midlands	1.17	1.02	Not statistically significant
Yorkshire and the Humber	0.85	0.78***	Lower
Year of entry (reference: 2014)
2015	1.15	1.28***	Higher
2016	1.25	1.42***	Higher
2017	1.39	1.55***	Higher
2018	1.68	1.75***	Higher
2019	2.09	2.06***	Higher

Source: MAC internal analysis.

Note: For adjusted ORs *** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05; . p < 0.1. No asterisk/dot signifies that the adjusted OR is not statistically significant. European nationality group includes non-EU countries only with Russians and Ukrainians being the most commonly occurring. The dark blue line surrounding each adjusted OR shows the range of values in its 95% confidence interval.