Research and analysis

North East water situation: September 2026 summary

Updated 14 October 2026

Applies to England

• Publication for Northern Ireland
• Publication for Scotland
• Publication for Wales

1. Summary

September rainfall totals were below average across the area. Monthly mean river flows increased at half of the indicator sites and decreased at the other half. Soil moisture deficits (SMDs) remained within the same ranges as last month, but are now much drier than average in 2 catchments. Most reservoirs recorded a decrease in stocks and remained below average for the time of year. Groundwater levels showed a variable response, decreasing at 3 out of the 5 indicator sites and increasing at 2.

2. Rainfall

Rainfall remained below average for the time of year this month. September totals were more spatially varied than in August, ranging from 35% of the LTA in the Seaham catchment to 68% in the Tyne catchment. September totals were normal in the Tyne catchment and below normal in the Tweed, Wear, and Tees catchments. Totals were notably low in the Northumbria North Sea Tribs and Seaham catchments. Changeable weather at the end of August continued through much of September, with rainfall recorded on most days. However, daily totals were generally modest. The highest daily totals were typically recorded on 2, 14, and 17 September.

Cumulative 3-month totals were notably low in the Tweed catchment and exceptionally low in all other catchments. Cumulative 6-month totals were exceptionally low across all catchments, whilst cumulative 12-month totals were normal across all catchments. Rainfall has remained below average for 7 consecutive months in the Tweed and Northumbria North Sea Tribs catchments, 6 consecutive months in the Tyne catchment, and 4 consecutive months in the remaining catchments. Additionally, it has been the driest 4 months ending in September since at least 1871 in the Wear and Seaham catchments.

3. Soil moisture deficit

SMDs remained within the same ranges as last month across all catchments, with little sign of autumn recovery. Deficits were highest in the Seaham catchment, in the 101mm to 130mm range, and lowest in the Tyne catchment, in the 41mm to 70mm range. Across all other catchments, deficits fell in the 71mm to 100mm range. Soils remained drier than average for the time of year. SMDs increased to 51mm to 75mm above the LTA in the Tweed and Northumbria North Sea Tribs catchments. SMDs were 26mm to 50mm above the LTA in all other catchments.

4. River flows

Monthly mean river flows increased at half of the 8 indicator sites, whilst the other half recorded decreases. Monthly mean flows fell in the below normal, notably low, or exceptionally low ranges. Flows varied from just 11% of the LTA at Mitford on the River Wansbeck to 62% of the LTA at Middleton-in-Teesdale on the River Tees. Flows at Middleton-in-Teesdale are impacted by upstream releases from Cow Green reservoir.

At most indicator sites, daily mean flows were lower at the end of September than at the beginning, despite a slight increase in the final days. The largest peaks in daily mean flows generally occurred around 4, 16, and 19 September. By the end of the month, daily mean flows were normal at only one indicator site, which was Middleton-in-Teesdale.

The banding at Heaton Mill has been revised since last month to use rated rather than ultrasonic flow data. As a result, the daily and monthly mean flows presented in this report differ to those in previous reports. Revised mean monthly flows at Heaton Mill have been notably low since June 2026.

5. Groundwater levels   

In the Fell Sandstone, levels decreased at Royalty Observation, but remained in the normal range, and increased at Townlaw, but remained in the below normal range. In the Magnesian Limestone, groundwater levels decreased at Aycliffe Nra2 and Red Lion, and increased at West Hall Farm. Levels remained normal at Aycliffe Nra2 and above normal at West Hall Farm, for the time of year. Levels at Red Lion changed from the above normal range to normal range.

6. Reservoir stocks

Most reservoirs recorded a decline in stocks and remained below average for the time of year. Kielder was the only reservoir to record an increase, with stocks rising slightly from 76.8% to 77.2%. Overall, stocks appear to have stabilised compared to last month, with the largest decrease being 6.9 percentage points in the North Tynedale group.

The Kielder transfer system has been in operation since 28 May to support stocks in Waskerley reservoir within the Durham group. Additional support began on 13 July through releases at Frosterley to maintain flows in the River Wear and sustain public water supply abstraction. Substitution of the Derwent reservoir compensation flow began on 22 July. Hury reservoir in the Lune and Balder group has been drawn down since April for planned maintenance.

Reservoir or reservoir group	Percentage of current stocks	Percentage of previous month stocks
Kielder	77.2	76.8
North Tynedale group	45.3	52.2
Derwent	52.4	58.5
Durham group	44.7	46.1
Lune and Balder group	56.8	57.3
Cow Green	40.4	43.3

Author: Environment Agency, hydrology.northeast@environment-agency.gov.uk

Contact Details: 03708 506 506

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.