Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire water situation: October 2025 summary
Updated 12 November 2025
Applies to England
© Crown copyright 2025
This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: psi@nationalarchives.gov.uk.
Where we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned.
This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/water-situation-local-area-reports/lincolnshire-and-northamptonshire-water-situation-october-2025-summary
1. Summary
After an average September, October saw a continuation of average rainfall, with an area total of 55 mm (85% of the long-term average – LTA). Cooler temperatures and average rainfall led to a reduction in the soil moisture deficit (SMD). River flows remained largely normal, though several groundwater-fed catchments recorded below normal or notably low flows. Groundwater levels continued their gradual decline, remaining below the LTA across most sites, and reservoir stocks remained below their normal operating curves but above drought alert levels.
2. Rainfall
Across Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire, October recorded an average of 55mm of rainfall, equivalent to 85% of the LTA, placing it within the normal rainfall banding for the month. Rainfall was highest in the north of the area, with 61mm (96% LTA) recorded in the Grimsby Ancholme and Louth catchment, and 64mm (95% LTA) in the Steeping, Great Eau and Long Eau catchment. Totals declined southwards, with the Upper Welland and Nene catchments recording the lowest rainfall at 47mm (68% LTA), although all 6 hydrological areas remained within the normal classification.
Over longer-term periods, a persistent north-south rainfall gradient remains evident across the area. For the 6-month accumulation (May to October 2025), rainfall totals in the Welland and Nene catchments were notably low, while the remaining 4 hydrological areas were classed as below normal. This represents a marginal improvement compared to September, when the upper Welland and Nene catchments were exceptionally low over the corresponding 6-month period.
3. Soil moisture deficit and recharge
SMDs continued to decrease across all areas over October, reflecting cooler temperatures and the continuation of more normal rainfall. The average SMD for the area reduced from 122mm at the end of September to 106mm at the end of October.
SMDs remained above the LTA for the time of year across all six hydrological areas. The largest deficits persisted in the central and eastern catchments, where values exceeded 130mm, while the lowest deficits, between 70 and 100mm, were recorded in parts of the north. Compared with LTA, all areas remained drier than expected, with deficits typically 25 to 75mm higher than average.
4. River flows
River flows across Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire remained within the normal range at most sites during October 2025. Out of twelve indicator rivers, seven were classed as normal, including the Rase at Bishopbridge, Witham at Claypole, and Welland at Ashley. The Lymn at Partney and Louth at Louth recorded below normal flows, while the Barlings Eau at Langworth, Bain at Tattershall, and Glen at Kates Bridge were notably low. No sites were classified as exceptionally low or high for the time of year.
Monthly mean percentages ranged from 10% to 70% LTA, with the lowest flows observed in the Glen and Barlings Eau, and the highest in the Rase.
5. Groundwater levels
Groundwater levels remained stable or declined slightly through October. In the chalk aquifer of north Lincolnshire, Barton (Horkstow Road) remained normal, while Burnham and Grainsby recorded below normal levels.
Across the Lincolnshire Limestone, conditions were generally below normal, with Grange de Lings classed as normal and Dunholme Road now notably low. Leasingham Exploratory, Grange Farm, Hanthorpe, and Aslackby all recorded below normal groundwater levels, with Aslackby declining from normal in September. Castlethorpe Bridge had no data for October.
6. Reservoir stocks
Reservoir levels continued to be drawn down below their normal operating curves during October 2025. Rutland Water remains below Level 1, indicating demand exceeding abstraction potential, although all reservoirs remain above drought alert levels.
7. Environmental impact
The Trent-Witham-Ancholme transfer scheme was turned off on 22 October. The Gwash-Glen transfer and Slea Augmentation schemes were operational throughout the month. One hands off flow was issued in October on the Witham.
8. Forward look
8.1 Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites
December 2025: All flow sites are likely to experience below normal to exceptionally low flows.
March 2026: All flow show an increased likelihood of exceptionally low river flows.
8.2 Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers
March 2026: All sites are showing an increased probability of less than normal levels.
September 2026: All sites are showing a continued increase chance of less than normal levels.
Author: Pan Hydrology Team, Hydrology-EAN-and-LNA@environment-agency.gov.uk
Contact Details: 03708 506 506
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report