Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire water situation: March 2024 summary
Updated 15 April 2024
Applies to England
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1. Summary
Following an exceptionally wet February, March returned above normal levels of rainfall with an averaged total of 61mm, which was 127% of the Long-term average (LTA) for Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire. Soil moisture deficits (SMD) responded in line with the rainfall received over March and levels slightly increased in all the six catchments from exceptionally low to below normal levels. Due to the record-breaking rainfall totals over winter, river flows at most sites continues to be exceptionally high. Monthly mean river flows were between 112% and 282% of the LTA. In response to above normal levels of rainfall across the region in March, groundwater levels showed a slight decline but all classified as notably high to exceptionally still. Reservoir levels across the region remained healthy and are above their normal operating curves with the exemption of Rutland which remained slightly below target.
2. Rainfall
The Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire area received an average of 61mm of rainfall in March which was 127% of the long-term average. Precipitation fell in a somewhat evenly distributed manner through the month; however the lowest rainfall totals were recorded in the first week of the month. Rainfall totals were classified as above normal across the 6 hydrological areas; with all catchments being over 100% of the LTA. The highest rainfall totals were in Upper Welland and Nene catchments with 74.3mm, 149% of the LTA. The exceptionally high rainfall totals of October 2023, December 2023 and the record breaking rainfall totals received in February 2024 are still having an impact on the long term analysis with the last 3-month, 6-month and last 12-month rainfall totals in most catchments still being exceptionally high during these periods.
3. Soil moisture deficit and recharge
At the end of March, SMD was at below normal levels in all the 6 catchments. SMD responded in line with the rainfall received over March. Compared to the LTA, SMD have slightly increased from exceptionally low levels to below normal in March in the region. This was due to temperatures increasing as we move from Winter to Spring. The area as a whole ended the month with an SMD of 3.5mm, in comparison to 2mm at the end of February.
4. River flows
In March, monthly river flows have remained exceptionally high for a number of monitoring sites, particularly those in the south of the region. Other monitoring sites in the North show flows ranging from normal to notably high levels. The monthly mean flows ranged between 112% and 282% of the LTA. An exceptionally wet winter, resulting in high groundwater and low levels of SMD meant that most river flow sites stayed at exceptionally high levels even though March’s rainfall was classified as above normal.
5. Groundwater levels
As a result of the exceptionally wet winter, the majority of groundwater sites started March at exceptionally high levels for the time of year. Following the above normal levels of rainfall throughout March, most sites have seen groundwater levels slightly decline; but still remain at notably high to exceptionally high levels at indicator sites with data. The groundwater levels at Hanthorpe, Grange Farm Aswarby, and Grainsby remained exceptionally high, showing no change in banding since December 2023. It is normal for groundwater levels to start declining slowly as we move out of winter into spring.
6. Reservoir stocks
With the exception of Rutland, all reservoirs in the area ended the month above their normal operating curves. Levels at Rutland was 1% below target curve in March compared with 2% below target curve last month.
7. Environmental impact
All transfer schemes remained off throughout March. There were no cessation notices issued due to the high flows. There were 10 flood alerts and 1 flood warning.
8. Forward look
8.1 Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites
June 2024: Nene Northampton and Nene Wansford both show an increased probability of normal flows with none of the modelled rainfall scenarios showing below normal, notably or exceptionally low levels.
September 2024: There is an increased probability of normal or higher flows with none of the modelled rainfall scenarios showing exceptionally low levels.
8.2 Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers
September 2024: All sites are showing an increased probability of groundwater levels being normal or higher with none of the modelled rainfall scenarios showing notably or exceptionally low levels.
March 2025: All sites are showing a decreased probability of groundwater levels being notably low or exceptionally low.
Author: Pan Hydrology Team, Hydrology-EAN-and-LNA@environment-agency.gov.uk
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.
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