Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire water situation: April 2024 summary
Updated 15 May 2024
Applies to England
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1. Summary
The Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire area received above average rainfall of 58mm in April, which was 119% of the long-term average (LTA). Soil moisture deficits (SMD) responded in line with the rainfall received over April and levels slightly increased in all the 6 catchments but saw a slight decrease again towards the end of the month when the month’s main rainfall fell. Mean monthly flows ranged from 110% to 308% of the LTA which were classified from normal to exceptionally high for the time of year. In response to above normal levels of rainfall across the area, groundwater levels remained high. At all sites with data, groundwater levels were classified as normal to exceptionally high for the time of year. Reservoirs in the area ended the month above their normal operating curves with the exemption of Covenham which remained slightly below target.
2. Rainfall
The Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire area received above average rainfall of 58mm in April, which was 119% of the LTA. This is now the eight month in succession with above average rainfall. It has been the wettest September to April period across Lincs and Northants since records began in 1871. Precipitation fell in somewhat evenly distributed manner; however most notable rain was recorded on 27 April of which frontal system brought rainfall totals ranging between 14mm in South Forty Foot and Hobhole and 22mm in Upper Welland and Nene catchments. The rainfall totals received across the 6 hydrological areas were classified above average (relative to the monthly LTA); with the lowest rainfall amount in South Forty Foot and Hobhole (43mm which was 95% of the LTA) and the highest in the Upper Welland and Nene catchments (69.5mm which was 138% of the LTA).The exceptionally high rainfall totals of October 2023 and the record breaking rainfall totals over winter are still having an impact on the long term analysis with the last 3 months, the last 6 months and the last 12 months rainfall totals in all catchments still being exceptionally high during these periods.
3. Soil moisture deficit and recharge
Soil moisture deficit responded in line with the rainfall received across April; SMD increased in all 6 catchments but saw a slight decrease again towards the end of the month, when the month’s main rainfall fell. The area as a whole ended the month with an SMD of 13.4mm, in comparison to 3.5mm at the end of March. This figure is still within the below normal range for the time of year.
4. River flows
River flows remained relatively healthy at all key indicator sites. Mean monthly flows ranged from 110% to 308% of the LTA which were classified from normal to exceptionally high for the time of year. The mean monthly flow at Upton Mill Total, Nene (Kislingbury Branch) remained exceptionally high, showing no change in banding since December 2023.
5. Groundwater levels
Following the above normal levels of rainfall and below normal SMD across Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire area in April, groundwater remained high, but levels showed a slight decline at all indicator sites. However, the groundwater levels at Hanthorpe, remained exceptionally high, showing no change in banding since December 2023. Overall, at all sites with data, groundwater levels were classified as normal to exceptionally high for the time of year.
6. Reservoir stocks
With the exception of Covenham, reservoirs in the area ended the month above their normal operating curves. Levels at Covenham was 3% below target curve in April.
7. Environmental impact
All transfer schemes remained off throughout April. There were no cessation notices issued due to the high flows. There were12 flood alerts and 1 flood warning.
8. Forward look
8.1 Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites
June 2024: There is an increased probability of normal flows with none of modelled rainfall scenarios showing below normal low levels at Nene Northampton and Nene Wansford.
September 2024: There is an increased probability of normal or higher flows with none of modelled rainfall scenarios showing notably low levels at Nene Northampton and Nene Wansford.
8.2 Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers
September 2024: All sites are showing an increased probability of groundwater levels being normal or higher with none of modelled rainfall scenarios showing notably or exceptionally low levels.
March 2025: All sites are showing a decreased probability of groundwater levels being notably low or exceptionally low.
Author: Pan Hydrology Team, hydrology-EAN-and-LNA@environment-agency.gov.uk
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report
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