Guidance

Universal Credit Work Capability Assessment statistics: methodology

Updated 14 March 2024

Applies to England, Scotland and Wales

This document provides users with information about the methodology and quality assurance steps used to produce the Universal Credit (UC) Work Capability Assessments (WCA) statistical releases in accordance with practices set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

1. Purpose

Universal Credit (UC) has replaced income-related Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) for new claimants from January 2021. Consequently, the ESA-WCA National Statistics publication no longer tells a full story on Work Capability Assessments (WCAs).

The UC WCA Statistics have been developed to fill in a gap in information on:

• the number of people who have a health condition or disability which restricts their ability to work when making a claim for Universal Credit (UC)
• the proportion of UC claimants on UC health
• DWP decisions and outcomes of UC WCAs within Great Britain

This information is tabulated by:

• stage of assessment (pre-WCA or limited capability for work or limited capability for work and work-related activity)
• personal characteristics (gender and age)
• geography (region, local authority areas, parliamentary constituency, small areas)

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on Universal Credit Work Capability Assessments

As part of the government’s strategy to support people affected by COVID-19, DWP made several changes to the UC WCA process to ensure people who needed financial help had access to the benefit system.

Eligibility for UC was temporarily changed so that everyone who made a new claim for UC and was infected with COVID-19 or had been advised to stay at home and self-isolate in line with government guidance was treated as having limited capability for work (LCW) from day one of their award. They were not required to provide fit notes or have a WCA.

Other changes made to the UC WCA process during the COVID-19 pandemic included:

• temporary suspension of face-to-face assessments for 15 months from March 2020. Face-to-face assessments resumed from May 2021

• recommendations were available from May 2020 allowing for Limited capability for work and work-related activity (LCWRA) decisions, while LCW decisions became possible from September 2020. No limited capability for work (NLCW) decisions were made from February 2021

• video assessments were trialled in November 2020 for LCWRA, to then include LCW as possible outcomes in December 2020 and NCLW since April 2021

Operational and policy changes in response to the coronavirus pandemic have affected the time series for UC WCA statistics. Therefore, we advise caution in comparing trends before the COVID-19 pandemic to during and after it.

These changes adversely impacted DWP’s ability to complete assessments and led to a decrease in volumes of completed assessments.

Note: The UC WCA temporary Coronavirus Regulations came into force on 13 March 2020 and applied until 12 November 2021.

2. Source data

The UC WCA statistical release uses data from the following main administrative data sources:

• Universal Credit Full Service (UCFS)

UCFS is main the data source for the administration of UC claims. Information is entered by the claimant and verified by the Jobcentre plus officials. Used as the base data source for these statistics to determine who is on UC at every second Thursday of the month and volumes of UC WCA decisions made every month.

• Customer Information System (CIS)

The Customer Information System contains a record for all individuals who have registered and been issued with a National Insurance number. This data is used to assign geography information and derive sex and date of birth (DOB) information.

• Medical Services Referral System (MSRS)

The Medical Services Referral System (MSRS) is a portal between the Health Assessment Advisory Service (HAAS) and the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP). The portal allows DWP to register and monitor electronic assessment referrals for UC health journey claimants subject to the Work Capability Assessment (WCA) process.

MSRS records the conditions that claimants detail in their medical questionnaire (UC50) and from evidence provided at assessment. These are entered by the assessor at the time of the WCA.

3. Methodology

DWP’s statistical team splits the Universal Credit Full-Service (UCFS) data and creates two new datasets to underpin the suite of official statistics.

3.1 Published data

UC Health Caseload dataset

The UC Health Caseload dataset is a historic, cumulative dataset containing all live UCFS claims at the second Thursday of each month in Great Britain. This is also known as the count date. It contains individual information at claimant level and is organised as one row, per live claimant, per caseload month. It captures information about:

• claimants who had their Statement of Fitness for Work (SoFFW) verified and accepted at each caseload month

• people who are on UC Health at each second Thursday of the month

• age distribution of people on UC Health

• sex distribution of people on UC Health

The UC Health Caseload is a monthly back series reporting data from April 2019 onward. Prior to this date some UC claims were recorded on an interim operational system called UC Live Service (UCLS), but this ceased in March 2019 when all claims were moved over to UCFS. There is no plan to release figures prior to April 2019 as they would be difficult to develop and, as the operational processes for UCLS and UCFS differ, it would not be possible to publish like for like figures from both systems.

Changes to medical evidence guidance and procedures

Before November 2023

Prior to November 2023, the derivation of the fit note caseload covered claimants remained on the caseload for a ’10-day grace period’ following the expiry of a fit note.

From 1 November 2023

From 1 November 2023, a clearer and more formal process was introduced.

Two weeks after a claimant’s fit note has expired, if they have not provided new medical evidence or reported they are no longer ill, they are sent a second reminder in their online account. One week after the second reminder, the claimant is removed from the health journey unless they have provided new acceptable medical evidence or they have given good reason for not providing medical evidence, or they have complex needs which mean a home visit or additional supportive actions need to be taken.

The new definition effectively now allows for 21 days from the expiry of a fit note.

Difference between live service and full service

Live service was the original system when Universal Credit was first introduced in 2013. It limited claims for Universal Credit to a narrow group of claimants: single people who did not have children, had low savings, were seeking work and met some other conditions. Claimants could make new claims online, but they had to contact DWP by telephone to report any changes in their circumstances. ‘Nil’ claims were closed after 6 months. Nil claims are claims where a claimant’s UC payment is reduced to zero.

Live service was gradually introduced to Jobcentres and was in every Jobcentre in Great Britain by May 2016 (it was never introduced to Northern Ireland). It closed to new claims from 1 January 2018 and closed to existing claimants by March 2019.

Full service is the final system that offers Universal Credit to the full range of claimant groups. It is also known as the digital service. New claims are made on gov.uk and most accounts are managed only through an online account. ‘Nil’ claims are closed after 1 month.

Full service was gradually introduced to Jobcentres from 2016 and was available in every Jobcentre across Great Britain and Northern Ireland by December 2018. When full service became available in a Jobcentre, existing Universal Credit claimants on live service were transferred to full service within 3 months.

How data is created

As the UC Health Caseload dataset is a subset of the Universal Credit Official Statistics dataset, DWP statisticians have used a similar methodology as the Universal Credit Official Statistics of counting the number of people on Universal Credit with a health condition, on the second Thursday of each month.

The data used for these statistics is a snapshot on the count date. Consequently, these statistics only represent the circumstances that claimants are in at that point in time.

A copy of administrative data is taken on the Monday following full count date. This is then converted by data teams into datasets that can be processed. Statisticians then produce output summaries following the established definitions, guidelines and processes outlined below.

Retrospection and revisions

DWP statisticians create the UC health caseload data created monthly. This data contains little retrospection, which enables DWP statisticians to publish accurate data with just a 3-month lag. For example, caseload figures covering the period to the second Thursday of March 2023 were published on 8 June 2023. The historic figures are not refreshed each quarter for each publication. Therefore, the most recent figures will not change.

UC WCA dataset

The UC WCA data is a dataset containing information on all live UCFS final DWP decisions made on UC WCAs in Great Britain. It captures information on:

• number of UC WCA decisions made every month

• outcomes of UC WCA decisions

• numbers of terminally ill cases

How data is created

A copy of administrative data is taken on the Monday following the second Thursday of each month from UCFS. This is then converted by data teams into datasets that can be processed by statisticians. The entire historic back series for the UC WCA dataset is re-created each month.

Refreshing the back series entails updating historic numbers with each issue to reflect changes resulted from appeals outcomes on initial decisions and WCA decisions which are not recorded until after the 13-week assessment phase, which can take time to be recorded.

UC WCA MSRS dataset – medical conditions

Medical conditions are determined by matching UC WCA data to the Medical Services Referral System (MSRS) which shows the medical conditions recorded by Assessment Providers based on claimants self-reported medical conditions in combination with the WCA. Clerical or paper based assessments are not recorded on the MSRS system (No medical condition information available). These are generally claimants who are too ill to attend a WCA based on medical grounds, including severely or terminally ill cases.

As part of the discovery phase for these statistics, the proportion of cases for which medical condition is recorded has been monitored over time. The proportion of known cases has generally improved since the series started in April 2019 and since January 2022 has exceeded 80% of all WCA decisions. On this basis, statistics have been published for the cumulative period from January 2022. Further updates to these statistics are dependent on achieving the threshold for reported medical conditions.

Statistics are shown against the International Classification of Diseases (ICD10) system. Unlike ESA statistics, Primary medical condition is not recorded for UC health claimants. Claimants often have complex health issues and can thus be recorded with multiple conditions across Classifications but are only recorded once within a specific classification. For reporting purposes, the conditions as recorded on MSRS have been mapped to reflect as closely as possible the appropriate ICD10 code – ICD10 Classification.

Retrospection and revisions

DWP statisticians create the UC WCA data monthly. This data contains some retrospection, which enables us to publish data with a 4-month lag. For example, WCA outcome figures covering data up until February 2023 were published on 8 June 2023. The historic figures are refreshed each quarter for each publication. Therefore, the most recent figures are likely to change in the subsequent release.

4. Users and use of the data

The UC WCA statistics are used by a wide variety of people and teams within the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), other central government departments, Scottish and Welsh devolved administrations and local authorities across Great Britain.

To ensure that the UC WCA publication is accessible to as wide an audience as possible we categorised our users using the ONS user personas:

• inquiring citizen – these users require simply-worded, high-level and visually engaging summaries, charts and infographics

• information forager – these users look for data to make practical, strategic business decisions and require high-level summaries, narratives and charts

• expert analyst – these users tend to download data to carry out their own detailed analyses and to create bespoke reports

The following table illustrates how the various UC WCA resources align to the 3 different user personas.

User persona	UC WCA Resources	Rationale
Inquiring citizen, for example, claimants, the public, the media	HTML Statistical Release Summary. Interpretation Guidance	The summary aims to provide a user-friendly introduction to the statistics. The main findings and key caveats are explained, using non-technical language as far as possible.
Information forager, for example, DWP analysts, government department policy teams	Universal Credit Health Caseload data. Work Capability Assessment data	Universal Credit Health Caseload individual data can be used to identify the number of people with a health condition claiming UC at each second Thursday of the month. Work Capability Assessment data can be used to identify the number of work capability assessments taking place by each month of decision.
Expert analyst, for example analysts outside DWP	Data downloads from StatXplore	Stat-Xplore provides a guided way to explore DWP benefit statistics, allowing users to create customised tabulations, view results in interactive charts and download into common file formats.

What the data can be used for

The data can be used to answer the following questions:

• how many people are on UC Health at each second Thursday of the month in Great Britain? What proportion of the total UC caseload does this represent?

• what is the proportion of men and women on UC Health in Great Britain?

• what is the age distribution of people on UC Health in Great Britain?

• how many WCA decisions have been made?

• how many WCA decisions resulted in a LCW outcome?

• how many WCA decisions resulted in a LCWRA outcome?

• how many WCA decisions resulted in NLCW?

• how many UC WCAs resulted in a LCW/LCWRA outcome due to a terminal illness?

What the data cannot be used for

The data cannot be used to directly compare UC WCA figures with ESA WCA figures.

The ESA-WCA and UC-WCA statistics are extracted from different data sources (JSAPS versus UCFS) and will have different extraction dates and retrospection periods. UC relates to income-based benefit claims, whilst ESA for new claims now only relates to Contributions based claims.

Strengths and limitations

The statistics are based on administrative data and can be used as the official measure of the Universal Credit Work Capability Assessments and outcomes.

Since not all Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) claimants with a health condition or disability have moved onto Universal Credit, increases in Universal Credit Work Capability Assessments should be interpreted in that context. New income-based claims that would have been for ESA, are now moving to Universal Credit. There are also people coming on to Universal Credit who are transferring from ESA because of a change in circumstances.

Only a limited range of statistics is available. Due to data limitations, we are currently unable to publish numbers of initial and repeat claims/assessments, number of Mandatory Reconsiderations Registrations and Clearances and the number of Appeals. See the UC WCA release strategy for further information on developments to the statistics. Further information will be added as more claimants move onto Universal Credit, more is learned about the data, new methodologies developed and new data sources become available.

Whilst every effort is made to collect data to the highest quality, as with all administrative data it is dependent on the accuracy of information entered into the system. Checks are made throughout the process from collection of the data to producing the statistics, but some data entry or processing errors may filter through to the data used to produce the statistics.

5. Quality

Quality in statistics is a measure of their ‘fitness for purpose’. The European Statistics System (ESS) Dimensions of Quality provides a framework in which statisticians can assess the quality of their statistical outputs. These dimensions of quality are: relevance, accuracy and reliability, timeliness, accessibility and clarity, and comparability and coherence.

6. Status and administrative procedures for these statistics

Status

Official Statistics

The statistics in this bulletin are classified as Official Statistics. The Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 defines ‘Official Statistics’ as all those statistical outputs produced:

• by the UK Statistics Authority’s executive office (the Office for National Statistics)

• by central Government departments and agencies

• by the devolved administrations in Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales

• by other Crown bodies (over 200 bodies in total)

The statistics in this bulletin are compliant with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. The Code encourages and supports producers of statistics to maintain their independence and to ensure adequate resourcing for statistical production. It helps producers and users of statistics by setting out the necessary principles and practices to produce statistics that are trustworthy, high quality and of public value.

In Spring 2023, the Chief Statistician for DWP led and internal review of all experimental official statistics produced by DWP. This is in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics. The review found that it was appropriate to remove the experimental label from this publication because it was concluded that the statistics are suitable and of public value. As of 14 September 2023, these statistics are now classed as ‘Official Statistics’.

Compliance check against the Code of Practice for Statistics

These statistics have been developed to follow the Code of Practice for Statistics.

We have worked to the following principles in developing the new series so as to:

• be of appropriate quality

• give a rounded and impartial view – be produced impartially, and free from political influence

• include sufficient background and methodology information

• be presented in a politically neutral manner

• be useful, easy to access, remain relevant and support understanding of important issues

Rounding

Figures contained within the statistical bulletin (published quarterly) are subject to additional rounding unless otherwise stated. The level of rounding applied, which is dependent on the magnitude of the figure being quoted, is shown in the following table.

Table showing statistical bulletin rounding policy

Range	Rounded to the nearest
0 to 1,000	10
1,001 to 10,000	100
10,001 to 100,000	1,000
100,001 to 1,000,000	10,000
1,000,001 to 10,000,000	100,000
10,000,001 to 100,000,000	1,000,000

Users should note that percentages shown within the statistical bulletin are calculated using numbers prior to rounding and rounded to the nearest whole percentage point.

Geographic coverage

The Universal Credit Work Capability Assessment statistics present data on claims to Universal Credit in England, Scotland and Wales.

Lower-level geographical breakdowns (for example, region, Local Authority) are included in the datasets and made available on StatXplore.

The methodology involves taking address information from the Customer Information System (CIS) and geographies are from 2011 Census Output Areas (COAs). The COA 2011 hierarchy is built up from COA to the National Level based on the claimant’s address.

Residency based geographies are derived from address information as recorded on the CIS. CIS is a more reliable source of addresses as it links to all of the DWP benefit systems and contains the most up to date address for each individual.

These addresses are then put through a data cleansing procedure which makes sure postcodes are formatted correctly and the address fields are populated correctly. 2011 COAs are then assigned to claimants using the ONS Postcode Directory (ONSPD), starting with a direct postcode to COA lookup and then working through a logical allocation routine. These COAs are then used to merge on higher level geographies from the National Statistics Postcode Look-Up (NSPL).

This file is then matched to the UC health and UC WCA datasets, ensuring that the count date/date of decision is between the address start and end of spell dates. If no known address can be matched for a period of time, the closest address for that claimant is used, as this is more accurate than random allocation. There may still be a very small number of records that are still recorded as unknown.

Read DWP’s statistical geographies note for more information about this.

Data confidentiality

The Code of Practice for Statistics (COP), specifically Principle T6: Data Governance, sets out principles for how we protect data on individuals from being disclosed.

Some figures in this publication are derived from Stat-Xplore and are subject to Introduced Random Error to ensure that no data is released which could risk the identification of individuals.

Random adjustment of the data is considered to be the most satisfactory technique for avoiding the release of identifiable data. When the technique is applied, all cells may be slightly adjusted to prevent any identifiable data being exposed. These adjustments result in small introduced random errors. However, the information value of the table as a whole is not impaired. The technique allows very large tables, for which there is a strong customer demand, to be produced even though they contain numbers of very small cells.

Figures contained within the Statistical First Release (SFR) are also subject to additional rounding unless otherwise stated.

It is not possible to determine which individual figures have been affected by random error adjustments, but the small variance which may be associated with derived totals can, for the most part, be ignored.

No reliance should be placed on small cells as they are impacted by random adjustment, respondent and processing errors.

When calculating proportions, percentages or ratios from cross-classified or small area tables, the random error introduced can be ignored except when very small cells are involved, in which case the impact on percentages and ratios can be significant.

Pre-release access

The Code of Practice for Statistics, principle T3: Orderly release specifically references pre-release guidance in sections T3.3 & T3.4.

A list of officials who have received pre-release access to Universal Credit Work Capability Assessment Official Statistics up to 24 hours in advance of publication is available on the Pre-release access to DWP statistics page.

Frequency

Universal Credit Work Capability Assessment statistics are released on a quarterly basis. Quarterly data are published in March, June, September and December alongside a statistical bulletin providing detailed commentary on the latest statistics.

The exact dates for the monthly and quarterly releases are listed in the statistics release calendar.

7. Glossary

Claimant

Claimant – a claimant is anyone who has claimed the benefit.

Count date

Date used to count the number of people with a health condition restricting their ability to work claiming Universal Credit. It is the second Thursday of the month.

DWP decision date

Date the DWP decision maker makes a final decision on the UC award following the provider recommendation.

Full service

Digital service that provides the full Universal Credit offering. Replaced the more limited ‘live service’.

Initial assessment

An initial WCA that a claimant goes through.

Live service

Original system offering only a limited Universal Credit service. Replaced by full service.

Repeat assessment

An existing claim that has been reassessed for UC, as opposed to a new claim. A repeat assessment is the second or subsequent WCA undertaken on an existing, continuous UC claim, usually between 3 and 24 months after the previous assessment. These claimants will have already been assessed as having a limited capability for work at their initial WCA and the repeat assessment will assess if their capability for work has changed.

Snapshot

A view of the data at a particular point in time.

Stat-Xplore

Stat-Xplore is an online interactive tool, which allows users to create tables based on published Universal Credit Statistics.

UC Health

People on UC who have a restricted ability to work, and who have had medical evidence checked and are awaiting a decision, or are assessed as LCW or LCWRA.

Work Capability Assessment

Work Capability Assessments help the DWP to determine whether and to what extent claimants could be reasonably expected to do work or work-related activities.

8. Feedback

DWP would like to hear your views on these statistics. We would be interested in hearing what you use them for and how well they meet your requirements.

Feedback and queries about the statistics can be sent to stats.consultation-2018@dwp.gov.uk.

Press enquiries should be directed to the DWP Press Office: 0115 965 8781. E-mail: newsdesk@dwp.gov.uk.

9. Useful links

Universal Credit statistics complements other DWP statistics bulletins that, together, provide a comprehensive view of Universal Credit Work Capability Assessments.

Read the UC WCA release strategy.

Read more about UC statistics.

Read the ESA-WCA statistics.

See Transforming Support: the Health and Disability White Paper for information on proposed changes to support for those with health and disability needs.

This statistical bulletin gives an overview of the important points and trends. More detailed breakdowns can be found via the supporting data tables and DWP’s online tabulation tool Stat-Xplore.