UKHSA Advisory Board: Finance Report
Updated 11 September 2025
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1. Purpose of the paper
This paper gives an overview of the UK Health Security Agency’s finances as at month four of Financial Year 2025 to 2026 (July 2025).
2. Recommendations
The Advisory Board is asked to note UKHSA’s financial position.
3. Summary of 2025-26 financial performance (at end of July 2025)
The table below shows resource and capital departmental expenditure limits (RDEL and CDEL) for 2025 to 2026, split by the parts of:
- core agency costs
- non-COVID-19 vaccines and countermeasures and
- the COVID Vaccine Unit (CVU)
It shows the year-to-date position and the provisional outturn for the 12 months April 25 to March 26.
Table 1. Year to date resource departmental expenditure limits (RDEL) and capital departmental expenditure limits (CDEL)
| Budget | Actual | Variance | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core Admin RDEL | 39,403 | 41,201 | (1,799) |
| Programme RDEL | 105,129 | 97,250 | 7,879 |
| Trust Programme (Cyber) RDEL | 12 | 11 | 1 |
| ODA RDEL | 5,040 | 5,040 | 0 |
| CVU RDEL | 78,242 | 83,239 | (4,998) |
| VCR RDEL | 156,252 | 156,252 | 0 |
| Core CDEL | 28,689 | 24,038 | 4,651 |
| Science Hub CDEL | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CVU CDEL | (6,411) | 0 | (6,411) |
| VCR CDEL | 2,918 | 2,918 | 0 |
| UKHSA core resource | 144,531 | 138,451 | 6,080 |
| UKHSA total resource | 384,076 | 382,993 | 1,083 |
| UKHSA total capital | 25,196 | 26,956 | (1,760) |
| UKHSA total | 409,272 | 409,949 | (676) |
Table 2: Full year resource departmental expenditure limits (RDEL) and capital departmental expenditure limits (CDEL)
| Budget | Actual | Variance | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core Admin RDEL | 130,250 | 121,373 | 8,877 |
| Programme RDEL | 309,446 | 320,468 | (11,022) |
| Trust Programme (Cyber) RDEL | 8,500 | 7,701 | 799 |
| ODA RDEL | 17,600 | 17,553 | 46 |
| CVU RDEL | 581,334 | 453,859 | 127,475 |
| VCR RDEL | 636,658 | 633,915 | 2,743 |
| Core CDEL | 158,600 | 159,576 | (976) |
| Science Hub CDEL | 6,000 | 5,995 | 5 |
| CVU CDEL | (26,000) | (26,226) | 226 |
| VCR CDEL | 64,446 | 49,551 | 15,895 |
| UKHSA core resource | 439,696 | 441,841 | (2,145) |
| UKHSA total resource | 1,683,788 | 1,554,869 | 128,918 |
| UKHSA total capital | 204,046 | 188,895 | 15,151 |
| UKHSA total | 1,887,384 | 1,743,765 | 144,069 |
3.1 Core Resource budget
The total budget includes the initial settlement of £430.9 million with an increase of £8.8 million for pandemic preparedness and security clearance. We have not yet agreed funding for the additional Employers National Insurance Contributions (£6.5 million) or additional increase in Civil Service Pay Remit Guidance for 2025-26 (£5.5 million). Given the current pressure of £2.1 million we do not intend to seek all of the additional funding at the supplementary estimate. We have re-classified some expenditure from Admin to Programme relating to Technology costs (hence, an Admin underspend and Programme overspend). Budgets will be realigned at the supplementary estimates for the current year and through the Spending Review process for future years.
The year-to-date spend is £6.1 million below plan. The current run rate is £34.6 million giving an annual outturn of £415.4 million. There is an expected increase in monthly costs from August onwards which includes pay awards for civil service delegated grades. To achieve the current forecast the monthly run rate would need to increase to £37.9 million per month from August onwards. We are closely monitoring forecast spend in the final quarter of the year to ensure that the recurrent spend is sustainable into 2026 to 2027 given the need to increase the run rate to a peak in Q4.
We have also been notified by DHSC of the additional financial pressures faced in the current year following recent industrial action. All parts of the health group have been notified to introduce a spend moratorium. ALBs and agencies are expected to adopt similar approaches which makes savings from discretionary spend to mitigate the risk of an overspend at group level. We will seek to comply with the moratorium, recognising that a very substantial amount of our work meets the definition of continuing to deliver non-discretionary or critical health and social care services and priorities.
At month four there are net risks of £5.4 million which includes the risk of royalties income not increasing in line with planning assumptions of £2.0million. The risk adjusted overspend position is £7.5 million above the current budget.
3.2 Core Capital budget
The forecast position is £1 million above plan, noting that in previous years we have seen slippage throughout the year, and the year-to-date position is currently £4.7 million below plan. We have conducted capital review sessions with all groups at the end of quarter one. Spend is forecast to increase from the current run rate of £6 million per month to £17.5 million per month in the next four months. This increase will bring spend in line with plan by November. We are continuing to scrutinise and seek assurance regarding the Capital forecast ahead of finalising the month 6 position.
3.3 Covid Vaccine Unit Resource and Capital budget
The Covid Vaccine Unit (CVU) outturn is to be below plan by £127.5 million for the year. The forecast is based on the latest Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation published advice for autumn 2025 and spring 2026 vaccination programmes. The forecast underspend reflects an expected change in accounting treatment, awaiting formal sign off from the National Audit Office. The change in treatment has resulted in facility readiness payments being recognised over the life of contract instead of in 2025-26. This change has been factored into the spending review multi-year planning. There is a potential further reduction in the full year forecast from delays to facility readiness. These potential reductions would be somewhat offset by the cost of procuring doses for Spring 2026 elsewhere.
The capital credit outturn is generated by a repayment agreement in place for non-supply of vaccines agreed in the previous financial year.
3.4 Vaccines and countermeasures resource and capital budget
The budget has not been delegated by DHSC with the final budget to be confirmed. For reporting we will use the month three forecast as the budget until this is delegated. This is a demand led budget across 22 vaccine programmes. UKHSA is currently undertaking work to better use data to improve forecasting (including more regular engagement with DHSC on the forecast).
4. Spending Review Phase 2
Phase 2 of the Spending Review was announced on 11 June. In DHSC’s overall budget, day-to-day spending will increase from £202 billion in 2025 to 2026 (as of the Spring Statement 2025) to £232 billion in 2028 to 2029. Adjusted for inflation, this is a real terms annual increase of 2.8%. Capital spending (longer term investment) will increase from £13.6 billion in 2025-26 to £14.6 billion 2029 to 2030. This means the overall real terms value will remain the same across the period.
Arms Length Bodies’ allocations are yet to be settled and therefore this remains the biggest risk to UKHSA. We are in ongoing budget discussions with DHSC, examining different scenarios to ensure efficient resource allocation whilst maintaining essential health protection services. Final settlement decisions remain under negotiation and we expect this to conclude in the autumn.
Luke Heath
Director, Finance, Performance, Risk and Assurance
September 2025