The predictors of police demand: A rapid evidence review
Review enhances insight to inform decisions within crime and policing. Predictors are identified that explain changes in crime and non-crime demand.
Applies to England and Wales
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This rapid evidence review examines the main predictors of police demand across crime and non-crime activity, drawing on UK-based research. It highlights how socio-economic factors such as deprivation, unemployment and education, along with demographic and traffic environment characteristics, are linked to variation in demand.
The findings show that demand is shaped by a combination of area factors (for example, population change and urban environment), individual risks (for example, substance use and mental health), and events (for example, political or sporting). While these relationships help explain patterns in crime and incidents, they are often correlational and vary by context. The review supports the development of more evidence-based models to predict and understand demand more effectively.