Forthcoming change: updates to road freight values of travel time
Updated 18 December 2025
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Description: updates to road freight values of travel time and accompanying guidance on the appraisal of user impacts, highway assignment modelling and the presentation of appraisal outputs.
Unit: TAG data book, A1.3 (user and provider impacts), M3.1 (highway assignment modelling), transport economic efficiency and appraisal summary tables
Change announced: December 2025
Expected release date: May 2026
Description
This forthcoming change sets out updates to TAG unit A1.3 – user and provider impacts, TAG unit M3.1 – highway assignment modelling and the TAG data book to reflect new evidence and guidance for the appraisal and modelling of road freight. Additionally, the transport economic efficiency table and appraisal summary table worksheets will be updated to clarify the contribution of freight to monetised scheme impacts.
A forthcoming change version of Transport Users Benefit Appraisal (TUBA) will be made available in January 2026 to accompany the guidance, and all updates will become definitive in May 2026, when an updated version of TUBA will be made available to reflect the values.
Detail
Background to the updates
In October 2025, we published research into Understanding and valuing road freight travel time.
The main report summarised the evidence gathered and set out proposals for updating TAG to reflect this evidence. This was accompanied by the publication of a package of research undertaken by DfT and National Highways into the topic. We sought feedback on the proposals for guidance, welcoming your views on a range of specific questions.
We are grateful for the participation and contributions of those who attended our event on 30 October 2025, and provided detailed written comments during the feedback window. We have had a chance to review this feedback, consider the implications for our proposals and prepare a final set of updates to guidance.
The vast majority of the feedback we received was supportive of the proposals, and welcoming of the proposed updates to better reflect the value of road freight travel time. We are therefore content that much of the previously published proposals are appropriate to put into guidance without change. Subsequently, much of the evidence and rationale for the changes to guidance set out in The value of road freight travel: updated evidence for transport analysis guidance remains relevant and we reference that document where appropriate throughout this note.
There are however a few areas where, in light of the feedback received and our own further review of the evidence, we feel the need to amend, clarify, or add to the proposed guidance.
This note sets out the final updates to TAG following this process, with the sections below reflecting the feedback received and subsequent changes to the guidance in TAG.
TAG unit A1.3 – user and provider impacts
TAG unit A1.3 – user and provider impacts presently recommends that road freight values of travel time (VTTs); that is, those values relating to other goods vehicles (OGVs), sometimes referred to as HGVs, and light goods vehicles (LGVs), are based on the ‘cost-savings approach’. This uses the cost of employing the driver as a proxy for the per-hour value associated with improved journey times.
An updated version of unit A1.3, to be published as a forthcoming change version in December 2025 and become definitive guidance in May 2026, will contain guidance that reflects new evidence on road freight VTTs.
For OGVs, stated preference evidence from Freight value of time and value of reliability (Arup, AECOM, Institute for Transport Studies Leeds and Significance, 2023) provides an estimate of the willingness-to-pay of businesses for improved journey times.
The values for OGVs will be drawn from responses from ‘carrier’ businesses (for example, hauliers), but are considered to represent a joint estimate of the willingness-to-pay of both carriers and ‘shippers’ (those that move cargo in the course of business, such as retailers) for timely delivery.
For LGVs, an estimate based on a combination of industry cost data and wage statistics is recommended for freight purposes. This estimate reflects the value to LGV freight operators of an hour of working vehicle use and assumes that 100% of the cost components in the VTT are time-dependent over the long run. For non-freight work purposes (termed ‘services’), a new value using the cost-savings approach is recommended.
For more detail on OGV and LGV VTT, see chapter 3 of The value of road freight travel: updated evidence for transport analysis guidance.
Both OGV and freight LGV VTT are assumed to grow over time at a rate that blends real wage growth for the wage-related component of VTT, with the GDP deflator for the residual component.
The values for both OGV and freight LGVs capture changes in time-related depreciation, as previously captured by the b1 non-fuel vehicle operating cost parameter. The b1 parameter is therefore not recommended to be applied to OGVs and freight LGVs, to avoid double-counting this effect in appraisal.
Those providing feedback expressed a desire to see guidance on reflecting uncertainty in the derived estimates and flexibility to reflect local differences in values, where these arise.
Unit A1.3 will contain the recommendation of a sensitivity test of +/- 15% around the values of time, which should be used for freight and professional drivers. This is based on the 95% confidence interval around the OGV VTT from Freight value of time and value of reliability (see table 39) and will help to demonstrate to decision makers some of the uncertainty inherent in the estimation of the road freight VTTs.
On reflecting local evidence in transport modelling, appendix B of TAG unit M2.1 – variable demand modelling contains existing, relevant advice. In appraisal, the recommended values set out in TAG unit A1.3 should be used to ensure a consistent approach across schemes.
We also received a range of comments on whether and how to reflect any potential additional value attributable to road freight trips to and from ports.[footnote 1]
We have reconsidered the evidence presented in Freight value of time and value of reliability, and while this research did find some evidence of higher VTT for trips to port, as explained in The value of road freight travel: updated evidence for transport analysis guidance (paragraphs 3.15 to 3.18), we did not have full confidence in the empirical basis for these values. Despite reviewing the evidence further, we have concluded that we cannot confidently recommend the use of these values in guidance. We will, however, draw lessons from the design of the study in attempting to elicit port-specific values in future research.
Beyond the VTT, the new version of unit A1.3 will also contain updated guidance on the appraisal of journey time reliability. The key parameter in this area is the reliability ratio, which represents the ratio of the value of travel time reliability (where reliability is measured by the standard deviation) to the VTT.
Firstly, the updated guidance will clarify that the existing recommended reliability ratio of 0.4 is applicable to cars and non-freight LGVs only. The ratios for OGVs and freight LGVs will be drawn from stated preference evidence in Freight value of time and value of reliability, with the reliability ratio for the ‘carrier’ segment adopted into guidance, in line with the proposals published in October 2025. The ratios for OGVs and freight LGVs are 0.58 and 0.7, respectively, resulting in a weighted average LGV reliability ratio of 0.47.
TAG unit M3.1 – highway assignment modelling
At present, TAG unit M3.1 – highway assignment modelling advises (paragraph 2.8.8) that analysts ‘use a value of time around twice the TAG unit A1.3 values’ when modelling OGVs. The rationale provided is that this is because the existing OGV VTT ‘[relates] to the driver’s time and does not take account for the influence of owners on the routeing of these vehicles.’
An updated version of TAG unit M3.1 will remove this advice, given the updated OGV values described above represent a more comprehensive coverage of the value attributable to journey time improvements. This will mean that modelling and appraisal VTTs for OGVs are aligned.
In the feedback received on the proposals, several respondents highlighted that the updates to VTT imply that (all things equal) a greater share of monetised impacts arising from a scheme will be attributable to freight, where in many cases less high-quality data is available to inform modelling.
We recognise the challenges of modelling freight and plan to explore and expand the department’s capabilities and guidance in this area with a research agenda over 2026 and beyond. As a more immediate measure, to ensure that decision-makers reviewing business cases based on the new VTTs can easily understand the share of monetised benefits attributable to freight, we are making updates to 2 appraisal table templates, as described later in this note.
TAG data book
A new forthcoming change version of the TAG data book (v2.03FC, December 2025) will contain most of the numerical updates to guidance to reflect the evidence on road freight VTT. The sub-sections below contain further detail on the changes, broken down by the relevant table.
Annual parameters
As described in The value of road freight travel: updated evidence for transport analysis guidance (paragraphs 4.14 to 4.19), informed by the recent programme of research, we consider that OGV and LGV freight VTT will grow over time at a rate that blends real wage growth for the wage-related component of VTT, with the GDP deflator for the residual component.
For LGVs in the work (services) purpose, we apply an ‘average LGV’ uprating series, which is a weighted average of the above LGV freight approach, and the relevant existing TAG VoT growth approach (using either GDP per capita or 1.5% growth for future years, depending on whether it is being applied in modelling or appraisal). These 4 ‘uprating’ series (LGV freight, average LGV modelling, average LGV appraisal, and OGV) will be added to the annual parameters table of the TAG data book, in per annum growth and index form.
These series feature lower growth than the equivalent TAG ‘VoT growth’ series, which applies to passenger VTT and grows with income with an elasticity of 1.0. For instance, LGV freight VTT shows around 60% of the growth experienced by passenger VTT from 2010 to 2075, while OGV VTT shows around 20%.[footnote 2]
We think these growth rates are a reasonable representation of how we can expect freight VTT to grow over time.
The wage component of VTT will grow in line with real earnings, while the non-wage component of freight VTT (relating to components like logistical savings, vehicle excise duty and time-related vehicle depreciation) is assumed not to grow in real terms over time (it will move in line with general inflation). This latter assumption is equivalent to that currently in place for non-fuel vehicle operating costs in TAG. We do, however, recognise the uncertainty around these uprating assumptions and will seek to further examine the evidence in this area as part of future value of time research.
Table A1.3.1: values of time per person
This table will include updated values for LGV (freight) and OGV, plus the addition of a new row for LGV (services). In 2023 prices and values, the ‘perceived cost’ VTT for these 3 vehicle types are:
- LGV freight (driver or passenger): £22.83
- LGV services (driver or passenger): £20.92
- OGV (driver or passenger): £87.00
These base values are unchanged from the proposed values set out in The value of road freight travel: updated evidence for transport analysis guidance.
These changes will automatically impact upon tables A1.3.2 (forecast values of time per person), A1.3.5 (market price values of time per vehicle) and A1.3.6 (forecast market price values of time per vehicle).
Table A1.3.4: proportions of travel and trips
Table A1.3.4 sets out the proportions of distance travelled by vehicles of different types and purposes, by day of week and time of day. At present, the recommended LGV shares use data from the National Travel Survey (1996 to 1998) and only differentiates between the categories of work (freight) and non-work.
As discussed in The value of road freight travel: ipdated evidence for transport analysis guidance (paragraphs 3.49 to 3.51), we consider it important to introduce a distinction between freight and non-freight work LGV trips, to ensure the updated VTTs are applied suitably in modelling and appraisal.
Table A1.3.4 will be updated with new LGV splits, by 4 categories:
- work (freight): 24.4%
- work (services): 61.1%
- non-work (commute): 8.3%
- non-work (other): 6.2%
These values, derived from table VAN0211 of the DfT Van Survey 2019 to 2020, are assumed to apply equally across time of day, day of week and percentage of distance/percentage of vehicle trips.
We acknowledge that robust evidence in this area is limited. In particular, the derivation of the distance-weighted purpose splits from the 2019 to 2020 van survey may understate non-work trips. This is because the survey asked respondents to report the primary use or activity of their vehicle(s) and many non-work trips will be undertaken in LGVs that have work as a primary purpose.
Feedback on our proposals for guidance highlighted 2 DfT surveys that were undertaken at a ‘trip level’ (that is, they contained detailed questions on distance travelled for trips of specific purposes):
While these surveys have strengths in terms of the level of information collected, there is a degree of uncertainty over the clarity of the purpose definitions used in the surveys, and the evidence is markedly dated.
On balance, we consider the evidence from the 2019 to 2020 survey to provide the best available evidence at present, however, we will keep this evidence under review and seek to gather improved evidence via future data collection.
The values in table A1.3.4 hold implications for a range of tables, most notably table A1.3.3 (car and vehicle occupancies). Specifically, while we are not changing any of the underlying occupancy data itself, the updated LGV purpose splits generate updated average LGV occupancy figures. These are shown in the table below, which corrects the figures in table 8 of The value of road freight travel: updated evidence for transport analysis guidance, which were erroneously reported.
Table 1: LGV occupancy per vehicle kilometre travelled
| Journey purpose | Weekday average | Weekend average | All week average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Work (freight) and work (services) | 1.20 | 1.26 | 1.20 |
| Non-work | 1.46 | 2.03 | 1.59 |
| Current average LGV | 1.23 | 1.35 | 1.25 |
| New average LGV | 1.24 | 1.37 | 1.26 |
Table A1.3.14: non-fuel resource vehicle operating costs
The b1 non-fuel vehicle operating cost parameter captures changes in the productivity of vehicles in working time, in p/hour terms.
As described earlier in this note, it is considered that the updated VTT estimates for both OGV and freight LGVs capture changes in time-related depreciation, as previously captured by the b1 non-fuel vehicle operating cost parameter. Table A1.3.14 will therefore be updated to remove the b1 parameter for these vehicle type/purpose combinations, to avoid double-counting this effect in appraisal.
The b1 parameter will remain for work cars, work (services) LGVs and PSVs.
Tables A5.4.2 and A5.4.4: marginal external costs
TAG unit A5.4 – marginal external costs sets out how, in instances where a multi-modal model is not used, decongestion benefits can be estimated via a marginal external cost (MEC) method. These MEC values capture the change in external costs borne by those beyond the individual traveller, when a vehicle kilometre is added or removed from the highway network (for instance, when a rail freight intervention leads to a decrease in road freight kilometres).
Tables A5.4.2 and A5.4.4 set out values for use in estimating the MEC of a change in modelled vehicle kilometres. That is, they report by region, road type, time of day and day of week, the p/vehicle kilometre MEC by different types of impact and forecast year.
Updated versions of these tables will be included in v2.03FC of the data book, based on an ‘off-model’ adjustment to the department’s MEC calculations. That is, the tables will be updated with values derived without a full run of the National Transport Model (NTM), and hence will relate exclusively to the ‘congestion’ MEC (MEC-C) and exclude any effects from the potential redistribution of traffic, following updates to road freight VTT. This approach has been taken to enable a timely publication of forthcoming changes to guidance following the feedback period.
The adjustment has been calculated by estimating the combined change in both VTT and the b1 non-fuel parameter, and applying this to the forecast Great Britain traffic splits from the National road traffic projections 2022 to generate fleet-weighted uplifts by road type and region for each forecast year.
The congestion MECs in table A5.4.2 will be uplifted by a range of 5 to 30%, depending on road type and region, with a GB average of 10 to 15%, depending on year. The MECs in table A5.4.4, for use when analysing changes by time of day, will be uplifted by a single GB average figure for each forecast year, for simplicity.
A ‘fully-modelled’ approach, involving a full run of NTM, will inform fully updated versions of these tables for the definitive release of guidance in May 2026. This will account for the redistribution of traffic in the model, following the application of road freight VTTs, and will accordingly see changes to other MEC categories, such as greenhouse gases and indirect tax. As an interim measure however, we believe the off-model approach provides a reasonable estimate of the likely effects on the congestion MEC, the largest contributor to total MECs. This in turn, will ensure that the effect of the updated road freight VTTs are reflected in appraisals of investments relating to non-road modes.
Appraisal tables
As referenced earlier in this note, 2 appraisal table templates will be updated to provide greater clarity and transparency of freight impacts on appraisal results.
Firstly, the transport economic efficiency (TEE) table will feature minor clarifications to the headings in the business user benefits (ROAD) columns. This update will change the column headings from ‘goods vehicles’ and ‘business cars & LGVs’ to ‘freight’ and ‘business cars & non-freight LGVs’ respectively. This change is intended to clarify the treatment of LGVs in particular.
Secondly, the appraisal summary table (AST) will feature a change to the ‘economy: business users & transport providers’ row, to better communicate the role of freight in a given scheme’s monetised impacts. In the ‘quantitative’ column, the value of journey time changes (£) cell will be broken down into ‘freight’ and ‘non-freight’ impacts. This will allow decision-makers to more easily understand the role of freight in the total monetised journey time impacts.
Transport User Benefits Appraisal (TUBA) software
A forthcoming change version of the TUBA economics file will be published in January 2026 to represent the changes set out in this note. Structurally, this will include the redefinition of vehicle type/submodes and purposes relating to LGVs and business trips, and the addition of 2 purposes, ‘LGV freight’ and ‘OGV freight’. These changes will be applied across all TUBA economics files, including the common analytical scenario files.
Contact
For further information on this guidance update, please contact:
Transport Appraisal and Strategic Modelling (TASM) division
Department for Transport
Zone 1/3 Great Minster House
33 Horseferry Road
London
SW1P 4DR
Email: tasm@dft.gov.uk