Research and analysis

SPI-M-O: Summary of further modelling of easing restrictions – roadmap Step 4, 9 June 2021

Statement from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O).

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SPI-M-O: Summary of further modelling of easing restrictions – roadmap Step 4, 9 June 2021

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Paper from SPI-M-O summarising further modelling on easing restrictions for England (Step 4). It was considered at SAGE 92 on 9 June 2021.

The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

This paper should be read alongside the accompanying modelling papers from SAGE 92:

It should also be read in the context of the SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 9 June 2021, also released under SAGE 92.

This updates earlier SPI-M-O statements on modelling of easing restrictions, such as the most recent SPI-M-O: Summary of further modelling of easing restrictions – roadmap Step 3, 5 May 2021 from SAGE 88.

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Figure 2 has been redacted as it includes statistically disclosive and identifiable data. We have provided an alternative Figure 2 for release which conveys a similar point.

Other redactions in this document have been made to remove security markings.

Updates to this page

Published 14 June 2021
Last updated 13 May 2022 + show all updates
  1. Added HTML version for accessibility. Some HTML images have minor formatting differences to improve accessibility of images.

  2. First published.

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