SPI-M-O: COVID-19 short-term forecasting: Academic summary positions, 2 April 2020
Summary by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) of 4 models for short-term forecasting.
Documents
Details
Summary of short-term forecasting models from Warwick, Imperial, LSHTM and PHE. This was considered at SAGE 22 on 2 April 2020.
Separate forecasts are produced using different models and approaches by the modelling groups represented at SPI-M-O. These individual forecasts are then combined to form a consensus forecast which is subsequently shared with the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
Please note that this paper is not representative of the full set of models that contributed short-term forecasts to SPI-M-O. The individual model submissions changed over the period, reflecting changes in group contributions, model development and data availability.
It should be viewed in context: the model descriptions here are very high-level summaries of four models used in the pilot short-term forecast. These are not the only models from these academic groups, or from SPI-M-O. They also reflect the available data and requested forecast specification at the time of writing. These descriptions serve a specific function (potential for short-term forecasting), and the models will have been further developed since.
Therefore, some of the information in this paper may have been superseded and the author’s opinion or conclusion may since have developed.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.