This is the fourteenth paper in the Scotland analysis series and examines the outlook for Scotland’s public finances and the financial implications of independence for Scottish households and businesses.
It finds that Scotland’s future public finances would be substantially stronger were Scotland to remain part of the UK. This conclusion is consistent with findings from independent experts such as the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).
The analysis concludes that the benefit for people in Scotland of remaining part of the UK – the ‘UK Dividend’ – is worth around £1,400 per person per year over the 20 years from 2016 to 2017. This is the amount per year that each person in Scotland would be better off by, from lower taxes and sustained public services as part of the UK.