Research and analysis

Road traffic forecasts 2018

Report, workbooks and a visualisation tool presenting forecasts of road traffic, congestion and emissions in England and Wales up to 2050.

Documents

Road traffic forecasts 2018

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Scenario 1: reference

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Scenario 2: high gross domestic product, low fuel

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Scenario 3: low gross domestic product, high fuel

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Scenario 4: high migration

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Scenario 5: low migration

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Scenario 6: extrapolated trip rates

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Scenario 7: shift to zero emission vehicles

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Details

Report presenting the Department for Transports’s updated strategic view of future road travel demand.

Forecasts are produced using the National Transport Model (NTM), incorporating economic and demographic data and evidence on travel behaviour and the factors influencing it.

A number of plausible scenarios are used to reflect the uncertainty in the factors affecting road traffic demand. These scenarios have been updated since the Road Traffic Forecasts 2015 publication.

National traffic and congestion is forecast to increase in all scenarios, but the size of that growth varies depending on the assumptions made about factors influencing future road demand.

This publication follows a substantial update to our modelling suite, the report details this and an overview of the approach to forecasting and the modelling suite.

Supporting excel documents for 7 scenarios

The published workbooks contain outputs from the Road Traffic Forecasts 2018 for the 7 scenarios used to capture the uncertainty in forecasting. Outputs that can be viewed are traffic, emissions, average speed, average delay and congested conditions.

Visualisation tool

A tool has been produced to visualise and explore outputs and inputs of the Road Traffic Forecasts 2018.

You can view the forecasts for traffic, congestion and emissions by region, road type and vehicle (plus time period for congestion).

You can also view some of the inputs that go into the model. These include gross domestic product (GDP), population, fuel price and the trips and car ownership outputs of the department’s National Trip End Model (NTEM).

Road traffic forecasts were previously produced in 2015 and 2013.

Published 14 September 2018