Research and analysis

Road traffic forecasts 2015

Forecasts of road traffic, congestion and emissions.

Documents

Road traffic forecasts 2015

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English regional plus Welsh traffic growth and speeds forecasts: scenario 1

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English regional plus Welsh traffic growth and speeds forecasts: scenario 2

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English regional plus Welsh traffic growth and speeds forecasts: scenario 3

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English regional plus Welsh traffic growth and speeds forecasts: scenario 4

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English regional plus Welsh traffic growth and speeds forecasts: scenario 5

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Detail

This report presents forecasts of road traffic that were produced during 2015.

Forecasts are produced using the National Transport Model (NTM), incorporating economic and demographic data and evidence on travel behaviour and the factors influencing it.

Five scenarios are used to capture the uncertainty in forecasting. These take account of the influence of income and the cost of driving on road traffic. They also expand on previously published forecasts to consider the potential effect of recent trends in travel.

Traffic growth is forecast to be positive in all scenarios. This however masks a more complicated picture of traffic and congestion between different road and area types.

The report also provides a more detailed explanation of the NTM and how these forecasts are produced.

Estimates of the tailpipe emissions resulting from the forecast levels of traffic are also included.