Resilience to long-term trends and transitions to 2050

A Foresight project supporting a holistic and long-term approach to resilience and risk planning across government.



This Resilience Foresight project is developing an evidence base, methodologies and tools to explore the interactions between long-term trends and a subset of acute risks in the National Security Risk Assessment.

Work on the Resilience to Long Term Trends project has been paused and is entering a new phase.

As the UK Government Resilience Framework outlined, the National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA) process is being refreshed and acute and chronic risks are now being looked at separately. The government is establishing a new process for identifying and assessing chronic risks, which are enduring challenges that gradually erode elements of our economy, society, way of life and/or national security, such as antimicrobial resistance, climate change and Artificial Intelligence.

Whilst we support this new assessment of chronic risks, which is ongoing, we are working on publishing interim outputs from the Resilience to Long Term Trends project in the near future.

Updates to this page

Published 21 July 2022
Last updated 19 February 2024 + show all updates
  1. I added up to date information on the project.

  2. First published.

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