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Resilience to long-term trends and transitions to 2050

Updated 19 February 2024

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1. Overview

Long-term planning is notoriously complex, and increasingly so with our reliance on closely interconnected systems and the uncertainty of rapid global change. But it is essential for whole of society resilience so we can prepare in advance of and recover quickly following new or interacting challenges. This Foresight project seeks to support a holistic and long-term approach to resilience and risk planning across government, answering the question ‘how can government understand and prepare for longer-term trends and build its resilience to them?’​

2. Project outline and objectives

The Resilience Foresight project is developing an evidence base, methodologies and tools to explore the interactions between long-term trends and a subset of acute risks in the National Security Risk Assessment. The project aims to:

  • support more holistic risk planning within and across government

  • upskill both policy and risk and resilience communities so that they can consider longer-term trends, manage related risks and maximise resilience to change

  • embed long-term thinking on resilience into policy development

  • encourage better use of science to anticipate and develop responses to evolving risks

3. Project outputs

The project outputs will include:

  • an evidence base describing 17 long-term global trends, for example, rise of global technology companies, competition for control of critical natural resources and ageing populations

  • a methodology for describing the interactions between long-term trends and risks

  • a visual systems map of the connections between trends and risks

  • policy case studies that provide a practical illustration of how to use this evidence and methodology to stress-test critical infrastructure and public service systems

A final report will detail the methodology, case studies, guidance on wider use for policy makers, identification of areas of preparedness where investment may be needed (including research or scientific advice) and emerging areas of concern to monitor.

4. Project timeline

The project is currently underway. For more information, please contact: foresight@go-science.gov.uk.

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