Research and analysis

Theory of Change- DCMS contribution to the opportunity mission: appendices

Published 10 July 2025

Annex A: sector specific Theory of Change figures

Theory of Change - sport and physical activity

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Theory of Change – culture and creative industries

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Theory of Change – youth

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Annex B: methodology annex

Theories of Change

A Theory of Change provides a logical and evidence-based model that explains how a policy programme or intervention leads to its desired outcomes and contributes to social or economic change. It achieves this by identifying, defining and showing the relationships between:

• Inputs – the resources available to tackle a problem 
• Activities – the policy programmes and interventions that the organisation puts in place
• Outputs– the direct, and often immediate, results from the activities 
• Outcomes – the medium-term results that arise directly as a consequence of the outputs 
• Impact– longer-term results that summarise significant social change

A Theory of Change therefore explores and explains the relationships between the planned activities (i.e. what the programme is doing – say, funding sports activities) and the end goals (say, improved health outcomes for underserved communities). The Theory of Change should also explain how (the mechanisms – say, by enabling a certain group to participate through subsidising funding), through which the programme will lead to these goals. This is often referred to as the ‘missing middle’. The ‘missing middle’ is important because many assumptions about how a programme will work need to be clearly defined and thoroughly tested. 

This review created a high-level (nested) Theory of Change with an overarching logic model and a ToC for each sector. The ToC convers the current DCMS remit, including where projects might be improved but does not suggest new mandates. Additionally, this ToC focused on Policies and programmes that deliver outcomes for the missions, noting where there are gaps. 

While Theories of Change are most often used to underpin monitoring and evaluation frameworks that assess an intervention’s effectiveness, they are very effective as a core method of developing and improving policies and programs from the start. By defining clear, measurable objectives and the pathways to achieve them, they can ensure logical and evidenced links between the intervention and the objective, and any assumptions or unknown factors are recognised and reflected on. Specifically, Theories of Change help policymakers and programme designers:

• Define the policy problem and objectives: identifying the key outcomes and impacts that policymakers want to achieve in the context of a clearly defined problem statement.
• Identify and explain the intervention logic: mapping out the activities and outputs needed to reach those goals, including the pathways between the activities and the outcomes. 
• Understand assumptions: surfacing and testing the assumptions in the programme logic, without which the pathways may not materialise.
• Overcome obstacles and leverage enablers: identifying potential barriers or enablers that could affect success.
• Establish measurable outputs for monitoring and evaluation: developing metrics to track progress and gauge the effect of the programme. 
• Communicate the vision and secure buy-in: developing a shared understanding of the programme among stakeholders to encourage a shared understanding of the problem and direction of policy.

For example, when considering opportunities, as this report will highlight, a likely key factor is ensuring access for target populations. Considered as a whole, developing a Theory of Change can ensure that policymaking is evidence-based, maximise the likelihood of an intervention delivering the target impacts, and support consensus-building and communication of the direction of policy with key stakeholders. 

Approach to develop the Theory of Change 

In this review, we developed one overarching Theory of Change that articulates how interventions in DCMS sectors as a whole support the Opportunity Mission, underpinned by three separate Theories of Change covering (1) culture and the creative industries; (2) sport and (3) other youth initiatives (defined in section 2.2) and their contribution to the mission. We primarily used a bottom-up approach to developing these models, first developing sector-specific models drawing on the evidence from those sectors (covered in section 2.3), before assessing the areas of commonality and difference and consolidating the models into an overarching Theory of Change.

The strategic-level Theory of Change is designed to support those working on the cross-government mission and at the departmental level, as well as those focused on specific sectors. By providing a high-level view of how DCMS sectors contribute to the mission, it facilitates joined up thinking and collaboration. In turn, the nested structure, through which the strategic level Theory of Change can be viewed and considered within a sector-specific context, allows for an understanding of how different sectors and interventions work together to support the overarching goals of the Opportunity Mission. 

This approach, therefore, seeks to provide a common language and framework for stakeholders across different departments and sectors to align their efforts and identify potential synergies or gaps. Moreover, the visual nature of the Theory of Change makes it an effective tool for communicating the complex interplay of interventions, outputs, and outcomes across sectors to a wide range of audiences. It can help senior officials and policymakers quickly grasp the key elements and pathways of change, facilitating strategic decision-making and resource allocation.

Scope

Gathering and analysing the evidence to underpin a Theory of Change requires a clear understanding of its scope and the definition of the sectors under consideration. This review covers: 

• Culture and creative industries programmes – in relation to culture, the arts, music and libraries; the creative industries; museums and cultural properties; and heritage sites.
• Sport and physical activity programmes – both individual and team sports, and physical activity (on either a voluntary or compulsory inside or outside of an educational setting).
• Other youth programmes – other initiatives targeted at children and young people which are not predominantly focused on culture or sport (but may contain elements of them), such as youth clubs, mentoring schemes, youth achievement awards, scouting and uniformed youth initiatives or volunteering schemes. 

The review also considered DCMS’s work in Civil Society, which supports charities and volunteer organisations. As set out in the Civil Society covenant, the government’s policy is to collaborate with Civil Society to work towards:

• A fair and equal society, centred around resilient, connected and empowered communities that are ready to grow and thrive.
• A strong, diverse and independent civil society that can act as a constructive friend and willing partner who can provide insight, innovation, expertise and challenge to drive sound decision-making.
• A government that embraces and facilitates civil society, valuing, understanding and respecting the fundamental benefits of working with civil society.
• A new model of civil society focused on prevention and early intervention, with collaboration that joins up local services and supports people in all parts of the country.
• These policy objectives focus on supporting and strengthening the Civil Society sector and its organisations, rather than on the specific programmes or interventions they may deliver (which may also focus on culture, sport and other youth initiatives). Therefore, we have not considered civil society in the same way as cultural, sports or other youth programmes, which are more directly focused on delivering interventions. 

Rather, a strong civil society is seen as part of the infrastructure that enables the delivery of outcomes and impacts for the mission and a precondition for achieving the mission objectives. Civil society organisations can provide input, such as volunteers and space, and be a key part of the mechanisms across the theory of change, working with government and services (e.g., schools) to develop programmes tailored to a specific area. 

Literature review 

The Theory of Change is underpinned by a literature review, which formed the core evidence for the review. The literature review aimed to critically evaluate the evidence of the impact of DCMS sector interventions and programmes on the objectives of the Opportunity Mission, focusing on identifying how programmes lead to outcomes that support opportunity and assessing the strength of evidence.

It is important to note that the evidence reviewed covers programmes and interventions within the broad DCMS sectors - culture, sports, and other youth activities. This includes but is not limited to programmes directly funded or managed by DCMS. The review aimed to capture insights from a wide range of relevant initiatives, regardless of their specific connection to DCMS, to build a comprehensive understanding of how these sectors contribute to the Opportunity Mission. This includes analyses of programmes developed and delivered outside of the UK. 

Given the broad scope of both DCMS sectors and the Opportunity Mission, we worked with DCMS to identify the most important priority areas for research (see section 2.4). They devised a search strategy and analytical framework to identify and systematically extract key insights from published research. 

The search strategy included the development of a thorough list of search terms focused on the DCMS sectors and specific activities within them – such as “Culture” or “Museums” – combined with outcome areas tied to the Opportunity Mission – such as “Educational attainment”, “Skills”, “Belonging”, amongst others. The outcomes incorporated in this search were informed by discussions with DCMS officials and drew on initial logic models produced by DCMS. A full list of search terms used is included in Annex D. Within this search, we prioritised and included studies that directly examine the impacts of interventions or programmes in DCMS sectors, with interventions covering children and young people between 0-18 years of age; that measure outcomes at the individual, community or societal level; that are published in peer-reviewed academic journals or by reputable grey literature sources; and that use robust quantitative, qualitative or mixed methodologies. This literature review also prioritised studies published within the last 15 years (2010 – 2024), with some flexibility for seminal or highly relevant works.

The initial literature search focused on ‘Civil Society and Youth’ as the third DCMS sector alongside culture and sport. However, following the initial literature search, it became clear that research related to civil society did not capture the impact of other youth initiatives beyond culture and sport sufficiently. Instead, research affirmed our supposition that, within the context of this theory of change, civil society and its incumbent infrastructure, networks and systems all play a fundamental role in determining whether an individual faces barriers to participation and how DCMS sector interventions can contribute to the Opportunity Mission. As such, each sector-specific theory of change is based on the presence of a robust civil society to provide some of the inputs and facilitate activities and outputs, but we have not produced a Theory of Change for civil society programmes. 

Therefore, there is a Theory of Change for ‘Youth’ initiatives, underpinning by a literature review. The search strategy for ‘Youth’ used the same search terms as those for the other sectors, however, given the limited literature available for ‘youth initiatives’ in comparison to that of sport and culture, we extended the search. This involved searching for longer phrases like “participation in youth initiatives and outcomes”, or using articles identified in the bibliographies, literature reviews or in-text citations of literature from the initial review we conducted.

The literature search on this basis yielded [193] relevant articles for consideration. Upon identifying this research, we subsequently reviewed these materials to assess their: 

• Links to outcomes and impacts relevant to the Opportunity Mission - the DCMS pillars of focus and outcomes related to education; employment; health and wellbeing; individual skills and knowledge; attitudes, values and beliefs; and civic impacts.
• Research design – the programme/activity being researched; the participant ages; programme frequency, and target demographic groups and communities.
• Programme details – whether the activity was outside of educational settings) or in school; the delivery organisation (e.g. school or non-school); the facilities discussed; the involvement of parents and trusted adults; programme costs; and research outputs and benefits.
• Long term outcomes – the types of long-term impacts discussed, for example health or wellbeing outcomes such as improved mental health.
• Analysis methods – including the evaluation methodology used; statistical significance of findings; monetary benefits identified; indicators analysed, and survey questions used.
• Research quality – including the data sources used and an assessment of the research against the Maryland Scientific Methods Scale. 

While all the literature identified provides helpful context for the policy problem – how DCMS sector interventions contribute to the Opportunity Mission - a focus on research demonstrating causality (or at least quasi-causality), not just correlation, is crucial for building a robust evidence base and Theory of Change.

The Maryland Scientific Methods Scale (SMS) is a widely used tool for assessing the methodological quality of evaluation studies. It ranks studies from 1 to 5 based on their design and ability to establish relationships between interventions and outcomes. For the purposes of identifying outcomes of DCMS sector interventions that contribute to the Opportunity Mission and subsequently developing a Theory of Change, we considered only research rated 2 or higher on the Maryland SMS:

• SMS Level 1: A cross-sectional comparison of treated and untreated groups, or a before and after comparison without a control group.
• SMS Level 2: A cross-sectional comparison with control variables, or a before and after comparison with control variables.
• SMS Level 3: A before and after comparison with a comparable control group.
• SMS Level 4: A before and after comparison with multiple experimental and control groups.
• SMS Level 5: A randomised control trial (RCT).

While SMS Level 1 studies can demonstrate correlation between interventions and outcomes, they do not provide strong evidence of causation given the absence of control variables. While there is variation in robustness between SMS Levels 2 to 5, by focusing on SMS Level 2 and above, we prioritise studies that use more rigorous designs, such as controlling for confounding variables, using comparable control groups, or randomising participants, which allow for stronger inferences. Notwithstanding this, the higher the SMS level, the greater the evidence of causation; while we can have greater faith in the robustness of SMS Level 2 articles, for instance, they do not necessarily prove causation. 

Workshops 

• To explore the implications of the review and test pathways with perspectives and expertise from within government, and to challenge the emerging findings, the project team held two rounds of workshops with officials from DCMS. 
• An initial round of workshops took place in December 2024, before the literature review, to jointly develop views on the potential constituent parts of a Theory of Change and inform the literature review strategy. This included one cross-cutting workshop with DCMS’s central analysis team and individual workshops with DCMS sector policy leads and analysts, covering culture and the creative industries, sport, and civil society and youth. 
• A second round of workshops was held with the same teams in March 2025, following the conclusion of the literature review, to present the emerging findings of the work and test their implications. 

Limitations 

This review has a very broad scope, aiming to explore and evidence the overall impact of programmes in each DCMS sector on the outcomes linked to the Opportunity Mission. The literature review was comprehensive in its coverage of research examining how programmes in each DCMS sector impact outcomes related to the mission. However, given the breadth of the sectors and the mission, an exhaustive exploration and comparison of the effectiveness of different programme designs within each sector was not feasible.

While a bottom-up analysis across culture, sport, and other youth initiatives has been central to developing an overarching Theory of Change, the literature search strategy and workshop engagement prioritised identifying key pathways from each sector to the mission outcomes over detailed comparisons of different intervention types within and between sectors. Developing more granular Theories of Change for sub-sectors (e.g., museums within culture vs team sports within sport) would show more nuanced pathways and mechanisms within the overarching model.

Similarly, although the outcomes across sectors can be grouped into common themes, such as health and wellbeing, each sector tends to influence different sub-groups or outcomes within those broader categories. For example, sport participation may lead more directly to physical health outcomes and mental wellbeing. At the same time, cultural activities might have a stronger influence on mental wellbeing than physical health outcomes. However, there is significant overlap and similarity in how they ultimately contribute to the impacts of the Opportunity Mission.

In focusing on research rated level 2 or higher on the Maryland SMS scale, this review draws on the more robust studies on culture, sport and youth programmes to inform the Theory of Change. However, as noted in section 2.4, the higher the SMS Level, the greater the evidence of causation and an SMS Level of 2 does not necessarily prove causation. Equally, given that many of the outcomes that underpin the Opportunity Mission are inherently challenging to measure – such as “belonging”, “motivation”, or “thriving” – these outcomes are less likely to be well-represented within those studies. In turn, these outcomes may come through less strongly within the Theory of Change. Any absence or under-emphasis of such “intangible” outcome areas within the studies rated 2 or higher on the Maryland SMS scale does not, however, disprove an association between DCMS sector activities and those outcomes. Rather, definitively proving links between DCMS sector interventions and those intangible outcomes may be a desirable area for further research. 

Annex C: outcome evidence tables

Table 1.1: evidence table- health and wellbeing

Citation	Title	SMS-level	Program	Outcomes	Groups mentioned	Value for Money assessment?
Culture
(Smyth, 2020)	Arts Participation Among 17-year-olds	2	Arts participation outside of school	Wellbeing	N/A	N/A
(Fluharty et al., 2023).	Associations between extracurricular arts activities, school-based arts engagement, and subsequent externalising behaviours in the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study	3	Extracurricular arts activities and school-based arts engagement	Wellbeing	N/A	N/A
(Fujiwara et al., 2015)	The health and wellbeing benefits of public libraries	2	Library engagement	Health	N/A	N/A
Sport and physical activity
(Denovan and Dagnall, 2023)	Predicting Physical Activity and Lifelong Health Through Personal Control and Educational Attainment	2	Sport participation in lesson time and extracurricular clubs	Wellbeing, Mental Health	N/A	N/A
(Whooten et al., 2018)	Effects of Before School Physical Activity on Obesity Prevention and Wellness	3	Build Our Kids Success (BOKS)	Wellbeing, Health	N/A	N/A
(State of Life, 2024)	The social value of free physical activity in schools: pioneering new study and discussion paper	3	Physical activity both in and out of school	Wellbeing, Mental Health	SEND, Lower socioeconomic children	- 30 minutes of physical activity equals around £1,900 for every year that the provision lasts for secondary school children and £1,100 respectively for primary school children.
(Metelski, 2018)	Effects of Physical Activity on Income	3	Sport and physical activity in general	Health, Mental Health	N/A	N/A
(Fujiwara et al., 2014)	Quantifying the Social Impacts of Culture and Sport	3	Participation in sports (team and individual)	Health	N/A	N/A
(Fujiwara et al., 2015)	Further analysis to value the health and educational benefits of sport and culture	2	Sport and physical activity in general	Health, Mental Health	N/A	- Sports participants are 14.1% more likely to report good general health compared to non-participants and are 25.4% less likely to frequently visit GPs and 8.4% less likely to use psychotherapy. This estimates the annual NHS cost savings per sports participant of £13.25 from reduced GP visits and £17.86 from reduced psychotherapy usage. - Sport participants are 0.5% less likely to report clinical depression which would increase the annual per person QALY (quality-adjusted life year) value of this reduced likelihood of depression is about £40 for participation in any sport and £34 for individual sports.
(Zhou et al., 2021)	Predicting Physical Activity and Lifelong Health Through Personal Control and Educational Attainment	2	Physical activity in general	Health	N/A	N/A
(Smith et al., 2015)	Are active school transport and leisure-time physical activity associated with performance and wellbeing at secondary school? A population-based study	3	Active outdoor play	Health	N/A	N/A
(Ronca et al., 2024)	Decreasing Sedentary Time during Lessons Reduces Obesity in Primary School Children: The Active Movement Study	3	The Active Movement Programme	Health	N/A	N/A
(Booth et al., 2023)	Associations between physical activity and mental health and behaviour in early adolescence	4	Physical activity in general	Mental Health	N/A	N/A
Other youth programmes
(Herrera et al., 2023)	Effects of the Big Brothers Big Sisters of America Community-Based Mentoring Programme on social-emotional, behavioural, and academic outcomes of participating youth: A randomized controlled trial	5	Community mentoring programmes	Wellbeing	N/A	N/A
(Bellis et al., 2017)	Does continuous trusted adult support in childhood impart life-course resilience against adverse childhood experiences-a retrospective study on adult health-harming behaviours and mental wellbeing	3	Availability of trusted adult support	Health	N/A	N/A
(Zarrett et al., 2021)	Connect through PLAY: a randomized-controlled trial in afterschool programs to increase adolescents’ physical activity	5	Participation in a motivational social climate intervention, “Connect through PLAY”	Health	N/A	N/A
(Kuroko et al., 2020)	Create our own kai: A randomised control trial of a cooking intervention with group interview insights into adolescent cooking behaviours	5	Participation in cooking classes and following a meal planning programme	Health	N/A	N/A
(Santini et al., 2019)	Formal volunteer activity and psychological flourishing in Scandinavia: Findings from two cross-sectional rounds of the European social survey	2	Volunteering	Mental Health	N/A	N/A
(See et al., 2017)	Does participation in uniformed group activities in school improve young people’s non-cognitive outcomes?	5	Participation in Uniformed Group Activities in school	Mental Health	N/A	N/A
(Gulesci et al., 2021)	Can youth empowerment programs reduce violence against girls during the COVID-19 pandemic?	5	Youth empowerment programmes	Mental Health	Women and girls	N/A
(Iyer et al., 2023)	Impact of the Heartfulness programme on loneliness in high schoolers: Randomized survey study	5	Youth self-care programmes	Loneliness	N/A	N/A

Table 1.2: evidence table- educational outcomes

Citation	Title	SMS-level	Programme	Outcomes	Groups mentioned	Value for Money assessment?
Culture
(Smyth, 2020)	Arts Participation Among 17-year-olds	2	Arts participation outside of school	Attainment	N/A	N/A
(Román-Caballero et all, 2022)	Please don’t stop the music: A meta-analysis of the cognitive and academic benefits of instrumental musical training in childhood and adolescence	3	Learning to play a musical instrument	Attainment	N/A	N/A
(Stanley, 2006)	An Evaluation of the Impact of the NW Museum Hub’s Primary Consultant (Museums and Galleries) with Manchester Education Partnership	2	Attending Museums and Galleries	Attainment	N/A	N/A
(Royal Shakespeare Company, 2021)	Time to Act Randomised Control Trial	5	Studying Shakespeare	Attainment	N/A	N/A
(Fujiwara et al., 2015)	The health and wellbeing benefits of public libraries	2	Library engagement	Higher Education progression	N/A	N/A
(Catterall, 2012)	The Arts and Achievement in At-Risk Youth: Findings from Four Longitudinal Studies	3	Participation in the Arts	Higher Education Progression	Low socioeconomic groups	N/A
(Robinson, 2024)	Access to extra-curricular provision and the association with outcomes	3	Participation in Arts and Music clubs	Higher Education Progression	N/A	N/A
Sport and physical activity
(Owen et al, 2024)	Sport Participation for Academic Success: Evidence From the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children	3	Sport in general	Attendance, Attainment, Higher Educational Progression	N/A	N/A
(Fujiwara et al, 2015)	Further analysis to value the health and educational benefits of sport and culture	2	Sport and physical activity in general	Attendance, Higher Educational Progression	N/A	N/A
(Robinson, 2024)	Access to extra-curricular provision and the association with outcomes	3	Participation in Arts and Music clubs	Educational Attainment	N/A	N/A
(Denovan and Dagnall, 2023)	The benefits of sport participation and physical activity in schools	2	Sport participation in lesson time and extracurricular clubs	Attendance, Attainment	N/A	N/A
(Whooten et al, 2018)	Effects of Before School Physical Activity on Obesity Prevention and Wellness	3	Build Our Kids Success (BOKS)	Attendance	N/A	N/A
(Jussila et al, 2023)	Are active school transport and leisure-time physical activity associated with performance and wellbeing at secondary school? A population-based study	3	Active school transport	Attainment	N/A	N/A
(Fujiwara et al, 2014)	Quantifying the Social Impacts of Culture and Sport	3	Participation in sports (team and individual)	Higher Educational Progression	N/A	N/A
Other youth programmes
(Leos‐Urbel, 2014)	What is a summer job worth? The impact of summer youth employment on academic outcomes	4	Youth Employment Programmes	Attendance	Students with low-educational attainment	N/A
(Blomfield and Barber, 2010)	Australian Adolescents’ Extracurricular Activity Participation and Positive Development: Is the Relationship Mediated by Peer Attributes?	2	Extracurricular Arts activities	Attendance	Women and girls	N/A
(Carneiro et al., 2024)	The short-and medium-term impacts of Sure Start on educational outcomes	3	Attendance of Sure Start centres	Attainment	Low socioeconomic groups, Ethnic minorities	N/A
(Villa, 2024)	The effects of youth clubs on education and crime	3	Availability of Youth clubs	Attainment	Low socioeconomic groups	N/A
(Bavarian et al., 2013)	Effects of a school-based social–emotional and character development programme on health behaviours: A matched-pair, cluster-randomized controlled trial	4	School based social-emotional and character development programmes	Attainment	Ethnic minorities	N/A

Table 1.3: evidence table- employment outcomes

Citation	Title	SMS-level	Programme	Outcomes	Groups mentioned	Value for Money assessment?
Culture- N/A
Sport and physical activity
(Robinson, 2024)	Extracurricular activities and later outcomes	4	Extracurricular activities in secondary school	Employment	N/A	N/A
(Metelski, 2018)	Effects of Physical Activity on Income	3	Sport and physical activity in general	Income	N/A	N/A
(Fujiwara et al, 2014)	Quantifying the Social Impacts of Culture and Sport	3	Participation in sports (team and individual)	Employment	N/A	N/A
Other youth programmes
(See et al., 2017)	Does participation in uniformed group activities in school improve young people’s non-cognitive outcomes?	5	Participation in Uniformed Group Activities in school	Employment	N/A	N/A
(Gulesci et al., 2021)	Can youth empowerment programs reduce violence against girls during the COVID-19 pandemic?	5	Youth empowerment programmes	Income	Women and girls	N/A

Table 1.4: evidence table- individual skills and knowledge outcomes

Citation	Title	SMS-level	Programme	Outcomes	Groups mentioned	Value for Money assessment?
Culture
(Smyth, 2020)	Arts Participation Among 17-year-olds	2	Arts participation outside of school	Skills	N/A	N/A
(Fluharty et al., 2023).	Associations between extracurricular arts activities, school-based arts engagement, and subsequent externalising behaviours in the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study	3	Extracurricular arts activities and school-based arts engagement	Skills	N/A	N/A
(Mecocci et al., 2022)	The effect of cultural and creative production on human capital: Evidence from European regions	3	Participating in culture in general	Cognition	N/A	N/A
(Román-Caballero et all, 2022)	Please don’t stop the music: A meta analysis of the cognitive and academic benefits of instrumental musical training in childhood and adolescence	3	Learning to play a musical instrument	Cognition	N/A	N/A
(Bowen et al., 2014)	Learning to think critically: A visual art experiment	5	Attending art museums	Cognition	Low socioeconomic groups	N/A
(Fujiwara et al, 2014)	Quantifying the Social Impacts of Culture and Sport	3	Participation in sports (team and individual)	Creativity	N/A	N/A
(Preedy et al., 2020)	Physical development in the early years: the impact of a daily movement programme on young children’s physical development.	2	Movement for Learning programme	Skills	N/A	N/A
Sport and physical activity
(Metelski, 2018)	Effects of Physical Activity on Income	3	Sport and physical activity in general	Skills Social Capital	N/A	N/A
(Trajkovi et al, 2020)	Reducing Aggression and Improving Physical Fitness in Adolescents Through an After-School Volleyball Program	3	After-school volleyball program	Skills	N/A	N/A
(Loturco et al, 2022)	A Systematic Review of the Effects of Physical Activity on Specific Academic Skills of School Students	4	Physical activity in general	Skills Cognition	N/A	N/A
(Denovan and Dagnall, 2023)	The benefits of sport participation and physical activity in schools	2	Sport participation in lesson time and extracurricular clubs	Skills, Social Capital	N/A	N/A
(Fujiwara et al, 2015)	Further analysis to value the health and educational benefits of sport and culture	2	Sport and physical activity in general	Skills	N/A	N/A
(Owen et al, 2024)	Sport Participation for Academic Success: Evidence From the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children	3	Sport in general	Skills, Cognition, Social Capital	N/A	N/A
(Gilbert et al, 2023)	Effects of a games-based physical education lesson on cognitive function in adolescents	3	60-minute games-based physical education (PE) lesson	Cognition	N/A	N/A
(Whooten et al, 2018)	Effects of Before School Physical Activity on Obesity Prevention and Wellness	3	Build Our Kids Success (BOKS)	Cognition	N/A	N/A
(Harris et al, 2018)	Impact of Coordinated-Bilateral Physical Activities on Attention and Concentration in School-Aged Children	3	Daily 6-minute coordinated-bilateral physical activity (CBPA) breaks in the classroom	Cognition	N/A	N/A
(Zhou et al, 2021)	Predicting Physical Activity and Lifelong Health Through Personal Control and Educational Attainment	2	Physical activity in general	Cognition	N/A	N/A
Other youth programmes
(McDaniel et al., 2022)	Exploring extracurricular clubs for building social competence of students with autism	3	Participating in extracurricular activities	Skills	SEND	N/A
(Kim et al., 2016)	Tying Knots with Communities: Youth Involvement in Scouting and Civic Engagement in Adulthood	2	Participating in Scouting and Civic Engagement	Skills	N/A	N/A
(Cunningham et al., 2023)	Feasibility study of a Movement and Story-Telling intervention (MAST) for Reception children	3	Participation in Movement and Storytelling interventions	Cognition	N/A	N/A
(Carneiro et al., 2024)	The short-and medium-term impacts of Sure Start on educational outcomes	3	Attendance of Sure Start centres	Cognition	Low socioeconomic groups, ethnic minorities	N/A

Table 1.5: evidence table- attitudes, beliefs and values outcomes

Citation	Title	SMS-level	Programme	Outcomes	Groups mentioned	Value for Money assessment?
Culture
(Bone et al., 2023)	Longitudinal associations between arts engagement and flourishing in young adults: a fixed effects analysis of the panel study of income dynamics	3	Participation in artistic, musical and theatrical activities	Self-esteem, Belonging	N/A	N/A
(Frontier Economics, 2024)	Culture and Heritage Capital: Monetising the Impact of Culture and Heritage on Health and Wellbeing	2	Participation in arts and music activities	Self-esteem	N/A	Using per-person figures, which reflect the benefits to individuals, NHS and social care cost savings, and productivity benefits, it was found that engagement with arts had a positive influence on self-esteem for 10–14-year-olds, and an economic value of £134pp. Similarly, music was found to have a positive influence on individual self-esteem for 10–14-year-olds, with an economic value of £68pp.
(Olivares and Piatak, 2021)	Exhibiting Inclusion: An Examination of Race, Ethnicity, and Museum Participation	2	Attending museums	Belonging	N/A	N/A
Sport and physical activity
(Trajkovi et al, 2020)	Reducing Aggression and Improving Physical Fitness in Adolescents Through an After-School Volleyball Program	3	After-school volleyball program	Motivation	N/A	N/A
(Denovan and Dagnall, 2023)	The benefits of sport participation and physical activity in schools	2	Sport participation in lesson time and extracurricular clubs	Belonging, Self-Esteem	N/A	N/A
(Fujiwara et al, 2015)	Further analysis to value the health and educational benefits of sport and culture	2	Sport and physical activity in general	Motivation	N/A	N/A
(Owen et al, 2024)	Sport Participation for Academic Success: Evidence From the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children	3	Sport in general	Self-Esteem	N/A	N/A
(Whooten et al, 2018)	Effects of Before School Physical Activity on Obesity Prevention and Wellness	3	Build Our Kids Success (BOKS)	Flourishing	N/A	N/A
(Zhou et al, 2021)	Predicting Physical Activity and Lifelong Health Through Personal Control and Educational Attainment	2	Physical activity in general	Motivation	N/A	N/A
(State of Life, 2024).	The social value of free physical activity in schools: pioneering new study and discussion paper	3	Physical activity both in and out of school	Self-Esteem	Lower socioeconomic backgrounds	N/A
(Booth et al., 2023).	Associations between physical activity and mental health and behaviour in early adolescence	4	Physical activity in general	Self-Esteem	N/A	N/A
(Smith et al., 2015).	Are active school transport and leisure-time physical activity associated with performance and wellbeing at secondary school? A population-based study	3	Active outdoor play	Flourishing, Self-Esteem, Motivation	N/A	N/A
Other youth programmes
(Tingey et al., 2020)	Entrepreneurial, economic, and social wellbeing outcomes from an RCT of a youth entrepreneurship education intervention among Native American adolescents	5	Entrepreneurship Education Programmes	Belonging	Ethnic minorities	N/A
(Santini et al., 2019)	Formal volunteer activity and psychological flourishing in Scandinavia: Findings from two cross-sectional rounds of the European social survey	2	Volunteering	Flourishing	N/A	N/A
(Bavarian et al., 2013)	Effects of a school-based social–emotional and character development programme on health behaviours: A matched-pair, cluster-randomized controlled trial	4	School based social-emotional and character development programmes	Motivation	N/A	N/A
(Kim et al., 2016)	Tying Knots with Communities: Youth Involvement in Scouting and Civic Engagement in Adulthood	2	Participating in Scouting and Civic Engagement	Self-efficacy	N/A	N/A

Table 1.6: evidence table- civic impact outcomes

Citation	Title	SMS-level	Programme	Outcomes	Groups mentioned	Value for Money assessment?
Culture
(Catterall, 2012)	The Arts and Achievement in At-Risk Youth: Findings from Four Longitudinal Studies	3	Participation in the Arts	Volunteering, Civic identity and Civic Participation	Low socioeconomic groups	N/A
(Garrod and Dowell, 2020)	The role of childhood participation in cultural activities in the promotion of pro-social behaviours in later life	2	Participation in cultural activities in general	Volunteering, Civic identity and Civic Participation	N/A	N/A
(Bone et al., 2023)	Longitudinal associations between arts engagement and flourishing in young adults: a fixed effects analysis of the panel study of income dynamics	3	Participation in artistic, musical and theatrical activities	Community	N/A	N/A
Sport and physical activity
(Fujiwara et al, 2014)	Quantifying the Social Impacts of Culture and Sport	3	Participation in sports (team and individual)	Volunteering	N/A	N/A
(Trajkovi et al, 2020)	Reducing Aggression and Improving Physical Fitness in Adolescents Through an After-School Volleyball Program	3	After-school volleyball program	Antisocial behaviour	N/A	N/A
(Denovan and Dagnall, 2023)	The benefits of sport participation and physical activity in schools	2	Sport participation in lesson time and extracurricular clubs	Antisocial behaviour	N/A	N/A
Other youth programmes
(Heller, 2014)	Summer jobs reduce violence among disadvantaged youth	5	Participation in Summer Employment Programmes	Violence	Low socioeconomic groups, Ethnic minorities	N/A
(Villa, 2024)	The effects of youth clubs on education and crime	3	Availability of Youth clubs	Antisocial behaviour	N/A	N/A
(Millard and Hutchinson, 2024)	Youth provision and life outcomes A study of longitudinal research	3	Exploration of youth provision expenditure	Antisocial behaviour	N/A	N/A
(See et al., 2017)	Does participation in uniformed group activities in school improve young people’s non-cognitive outcomes?	5	Participation in Uniformed Group Activities in school	Civic Participation and Civic Engagement	N/A	N/A
(Kim et al., 2016)	Tying Knots with Communities: Youth Involvement in Scouting and Civic Engagement in Adulthood	2	Participating in Scouting and Civic Engagement	Civic Participation and Civic Engagement	N/A	N/A
(McDaniel et al., 2022)	Exploring extracurricular clubs for building social competence of students with autism	3	Participating in extracurricular activities	Community	SEND	N/A
(Kirkman et al., 2016)	Evaluating youth social action: Does participating in social action boost the skills young people need to succeed in adult life	3	Participating in Social Action initiatives	Community	N/A	N/A

Annex D: search terms by sector

Culture and creative industries

Culture: “Involvement with Culture” AND “Attainment”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Skills”; “Involvement with Culture” AND “Income”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Individual income”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Employment”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Productivity”; “Involvement with Culture” AND “Health”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Wellbeing”; “Involvement with Culture” AND “Self-esteem”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Social capital”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Self-identity”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Flourishing”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Human Capital”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Personal Development”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Creativity”; “Involvement with Culture” AND “National Pride”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Community cohesion”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Pride”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Belonging”; “Involvement with Culture” AND “Crime, Violence”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Youth offending”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Mental Health”; “Involvement with Culture” AND “Opportunity”; “Involvement with Culture” AND “Soft Skills”; “Involvement with Culture” AND “Life skills”; “Involvement with Culture” AND “Knowledge”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Success”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Aspiration”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Motivation”, “Involvement with Culture” AND “Enrichment” “Involvement with Culture” AND “Youth Services”

Creative Industries: “Creative Industries” AND “Attainment”, “Creative Industries” AND “Employment”, “Creative Industries” AND “Productivity”; “Creative Industries” AND “Health”, “Creative Industries” AND “Wellbeing”; “Creative Industries” AND “Self-esteem”, “Creative Industries” AND “Social capital”, “Creative Industries” AND “Self-identity”, “Creative Industries” AND “Flourishing”, “Creative Industries” AND “Human Capital”, “Creative Industries” AND “Personal Development”, “Creative Industries” AND “Creativity”; “Creative Industries” AND “National Pride”, “Creative Industries” AND “Community cohesion”, “Creative Industries” AND “Pride”, “Creative Industries” AND “Belonging”; “Creative Industries” AND “Crime, Violence”, “Creative Industries” AND “Youth offending”, “Creative Industries” AND “Mental Health”; “Creative Industries” AND “Opportunity”; “Creative Industries” AND “Soft Skills”; “Creative Industries” AND “Life skills”; “Creative Industries” AND “Knowledge”, “Creative Industries” AND “Success”, “Creative Industries” AND “Aspiration”, “Creative Industries” AND “Motivation”, “Creative Industries” AND “Inspiration” “Creative Industries” AND “Enrichment”, “Creative Industries AND “Enrichment”, “Creative Industries” AND “Youth Services”

Civil society and youth

Civil Society: “Civil Society” AND “Attainment”, “Civil Society” AND “Skills”; “Civil Society” AND “Income”, “Civil Society” AND “Employment”, “Civil Society” AND “Productivity”; “Civil Society” AND “Health”, “Civil Society” AND “Wellbeing”; “Civil Society” AND “Self-esteem”, “Civil Society” AND “Social capital”, “Civil Society” AND “Self-identity”, “Civil Society” AND “Flourishing”, “Civil Society” AND “Human Capital”, “Civil Society” AND “Personal Development”, “Civil Society” AND “Creativity”; “Civil Society” AND “National Pride”, “Civil Society” AND “Community cohesion”, “Civil Society” AND “Pride”, “Civil Society” AND “Belonging”; “Civil Society” AND “Crime, Violence”, “Civil Society” AND “Youth offending”; “Civil Society” AND “Knowledge”, “Civil Society” AND “Success”, “Civil Society” AND “Aspiration”, “Civil Society” AND “Motivation”, “Civil Society” AND “Inspiration”

Youth initiatives: “Youth initiatives” AND “Attainment”, “Youth initiatives” AND “Skills”; “Youth initiatives” AND “Income”, “Youth initiatives” AND “Employment”, “Youth initiatives” AND “Productivity”; “Youth initiatives” AND “Health”, “Youth initiatives” AND “Wellbeing”; “Youth initiatives” AND “Self-esteem”, “Youth initiatives” AND “Social capital”, “Youth initiatives” AND “Self-identity”, “Youth initiatives” AND “Flourishing”, “Youth initiatives” AND “Human Capital”, “Youth initiatives” AND “Personal Development”, “Youth initiatives” AND “Creativity”; “Youth initiatives” AND “National Pride”, “Youth initiatives” AND “Community cohesion”, “Youth initiatives” AND “Pride”, “Youth initiatives” AND “Belonging”; “Youth initiatives” AND “Crime, Violence”, “Youth initiatives” AND “Youth offending”; “Youth initiatives” AND “Knowledge”, “Youth initiatives” AND “Success”, “Youth initiatives” AND “Aspiration”, “Youth initiatives” AND “Motivation”, “Youth initiatives” AND “Inspiration”

Volunteer: “Volunteer” AND “Attainment”, “Volunteer” AND “Skills”; “Volunteer” AND “Income”, “Volunteer” AND “Employment”, “Volunteer” AND “Productivity”; “Volunteer” AND “Health”, “Volunteer” AND “Wellbeing”; “Volunteer” AND “Self-esteem”, “Volunteer” AND “Social capital”, “Volunteer” AND “Self-identity”, “Volunteer” AND “Flourishing”, “Volunteer” AND “Human Capital”, “Volunteer” AND “Personal Development”, “Volunteer” AND “Creativity”; “Volunteer” AND “National Pride”, “Volunteer” AND “Community cohesion”, “Volunteer” AND “Pride”, “Volunteer” AND “Belonging”; “Volunteer” AND “Crime, Violence”, “Volunteer” AND “Youth offending”, “Volunteer” AND “Mental Health”; “Volunteer” AND “Opportunity”; “Volunteer” AND “Soft Skills”; “Volunteer” AND “Life skills”; “Volunteer” AND “Knowledge”, “Volunteer” AND “Success”, “Volunteer” AND “Aspiration”, “Volunteer” AND “Motivation”, “Volunteer” AND “Inspiration”, 

Community: “Community” AND “Attainment”, “Community” AND “Skills”; “Community” AND “Income”, “Community” AND “Employment”, “Community” AND “Productivity”; “Community” AND “Health”, “Community” AND “Wellbeing”; “Community” AND “Self-esteem”, “Community” AND “Social capital”, “Community” AND “Self-identity”, “Community” AND “Flourishing”, “Community” AND “Human Capital”, “Community” AND “Personal Development”, “Community” AND “Creativity”; “Community” AND “National Pride”, “Community” AND “Community cohesion”, “Community” AND “Pride”, “Community” AND “Belonging”; “Community” AND “Crime, Violence”, “Community” AND “Youth offending”, “Community” AND “Mental Health”; “Community” AND “Opportunity”; “Community” AND “Soft Skills”; “Community” AND “Life skills”; “Community” AND “Knowledge”, “Community” AND “Success”, “Community” AND “Aspiration”, “Community” AND “Motivation”, “Community” AND “Inspiration”

Sport and physical activity 

Sport: “Sport” AND “Educational attainment”, “Sport” AND “Skills”; “Sport” AND “Income”, “Sport” AND “Employment”, “Sport” AND “Productivity”; “Sport” AND “Health”, “Sport” AND “Wellbeing”; “Sport” AND “Self-esteem”, “Sport” AND “Social capital”, “Sport” AND “Self-identity”, “Sport” AND “Flourishing”, “Sport” AND “Human Capital”, “Sport” AND “Personal Development”, “Sport” AND “Creativity”; “Sport” AND “National Pride”, “Sport” AND “Community cohesion”, “Sport” AND “Pride”, “Sport” AND “Belonging”; “Sport” AND “Crime, Violence”, “Sport” AND “Youth offending”; “Sport” AND “Wellness”; “Sport” AND “Knowledge”, “Sport” AND “Success”, “Sport” AND “Aspiration”, “Sport” AND “Motivation”, “Sport” AND “Inspiration”, “Sport” AND “Enrichment”, “Sport” AND “Youth Services”, “Sport” AND “Physical Education”

Activity: “Activity “ AND “Educational attainment”, “Activity “ AND “Skills”; “Activity “ AND “Income”, “Activity “ AND “Employment”, “Activity “ AND “Productivity”; “Activity “ AND “Health”, “Activity “ AND “Wellbeing”; “Activity “ AND “Self-esteem”, “Activity “ AND “Social capital”, “Activity “ AND “Self-identity”, “Activity “ AND “Flourishing”, “Activity “ AND “Human Capital”, “Activity “ AND “Personal Development”, “Activity “ AND “Creativity”; “Activity “ AND “National Pride”, “Activity “ AND “Community cohesion”, “Activity “ AND “Pride”, “Activity “ AND “Belonging”; “Activity “ AND “Crime, Violence”, “Activity “ AND “Youth offending”; “Activity “ AND “Wellness”; “Activity “ AND “Knowledge”, “Activity “ AND “Success”, “Activity “ AND “Aspiration”, “Activity “ AND “Motivation”, “Activity “ AND “Inspiration”, “Activity “ AND “Enrichment”, “Activity “ AND “Youth Services”, “Sport” AND “Physical Education”

Physical Activity: “Physical Activity” AND “Educational attainment”, “Physical Activity” AND “Skills”; “Physical Activity” AND “Income”, “Physical Activity” AND “Employment”, “Physical Activity” AND “Productivity”; “Physical Activity” AND “Health”, “Physical Activity” AND “Wellbeing”; “Physical Activity” AND “Self-esteem”, “Physical Activity” AND “Social capital”, “Physical Activity” AND “Self-identity”, “Physical Activity” AND “Flourishing”, “Physical Activity” AND “Human Capital”, “Physical Activity” AND “Personal Development”, “Physical Activity” AND “Creativity”; “Physical Activity” AND “National Pride”, “Physical Activity” AND “Community cohesion”, “Physical Activity” AND “Pride”, “Physical Activity” AND “Belonging”; “Physical Activity” AND “Crime, Violence”, “Physical Activity” AND “Youth offending”; “Physical Activity” AND “Wellness”; “Physical Activity” AND “Knowledge”, “Physical Activity” AND “Success”, “Physical Activity” AND “Aspiration”, “Physical Activity” AND “Motivation”, “Physical Activity” AND “Inspiration”, “Physical Activity” AND “Enrichment”, “Physical Activity” AND “Youth Services”, “Sport” AND “Physical Education”