Rail fares freeze: passenger savings estimate
Published 24 November 2025
Applies to England
© Crown copyright 2025
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The government has frozen rail fares to help commuters with living costs and boost the economy.
According to analysis produced and internally assured by DfT, the fares freeze is expected to save existing rail passengers £600 million in 2026/27. The freeze is assumed to stimulate new journeys, so the net cost of the policy will be significantly lower than this.
This analysis is based on data for the 14 Department for Transport (DfT)-managed train operating companies (TOCs) operating passenger services in Great Britain.
Calculating existing passenger savings
To calculate the revenue saving figure, DfT calculated the revenue earned by the relevant TOCs from rail period 7, 2024 to 2025, to rail period 6, 2025 to 2026.
This figure was then multiplied by July 2025 RPI + 1% (1.058) published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This represents the counterfactual fares rise.
The difference between these two figures was calculated as £600 million.
This figure does not represent a forecast, as it does not include forecast revenue growth due to macroeconomic factors. It assumes that unregulated fares move in line with regulated fares.
The estimate only considers fare revenue saved by existing passengers, assumes no changes in passenger numbers and does not include a demand response.
We would expect the demand response to be in line with elasticity estimates published in table 6 of TAG unit M2.1 variable demand modelling.
Data used for this analysis
This analysis used data from Latest Earnings Networked Nationally Overnight settlement system (LENNON), an automated system based upon ticket sales. This holds information on the vast majority of national rail tickets purchased in Great Britain and is used to allocate the revenue from ticket sales between TOCs.
The analysis makes an implicit assumption that all DfT-managed TOCs earn revenue through fares they control. In practice, DfT-managed TOCs may earn some revenue from fares set by a TOC outside the scope of the fare freeze. However, this is a reasonable approximation, and the headline existing passenger saving figure has been rounded to the nearest £100 million.
Contact information
Rail statistics enquiries
Email rail.stats@dft.gov.uk
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