Research and analysis

National Minimum Wage evaluation: counterfactual research

Research exploring what the wages of those affected by the national minimum wage would be if the annual uprating had not taken place.

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This report by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) reviews the methodology used for estimating the cost to business of upratings to the National Minimum Wage and National Living Wage rates. It focuses on the ‘counterfactual’ - what the wages of those affected by the NMW and NLW would be if the annual uprating had not taken place - which underpins the costs estimate.

The counterfactual recommended in this report was used in the impact assessment for the April 2018 rates.

Published 5 February 2018