Research and analysis

Japan’s new energy plan: less nuclear but not zero April 2014

Published 16 April 2014

This research and analysis was withdrawn on 18 June 2014

This document is no longer current.

0.1 The new Energy Plan

Japan’s Cabinet approved a new Basic Energy Plan on 11 April. The highlight was the language on the role of nuclear energy. The plan described nuclear as an ‘important base-load power source as a low carbon and quasi-domestic energy, contributing to stability of energy supply-demand structures, on the major premise that safety assurance should be prioritised above all else.’ The plan pledged to ‘lower dependency on nuclear power as much as possible through energy saving, introducing renewable energy and improving the efficiency of thermal power generation.’

The plan describes policies for securing fossil fuel resources, energy saving, accelerating renewables (particularly wind, geothermal and biomass) and promoting ‘high-efficiency’ coal/ LNG generation. It also refers to the importance of continuing with electricity market and gas market reform and developing new storage technologies, including hydrogen. It indicates that Japan plans to publish a 2030 renewable energy target before COP 21 which will be at least 20% (including hydro) but contains no figures on Japan’s overall future energy mix. These are expected to be in the next plan due in 2-3 years time.

0.2 What it means

The plan provides official government approval for reactors which get safety approval from the new regulator to restart. It claims that Japan’s new regulatory requirements ‘have the world’s highest level of safety’. Japan now has official government approval to bring back some nuclear where the regulator approves reactors safe. The plan is a significant break from the LDP predecessors’ policy of aiming for a zero nuclear energy mix. Despite the inclusion of nuclear in their energy mix, continued public nervousness about the risk of another accident means that METI has pledged to reduce reliance on nuclear as much as possible.

0.3 Restarts

Japan has 48 idled but operable nuclear reactors. 17 have applied to the regulator for safety approval. The first two (at Sendai, Kagoshima, on the southern tip of Kyushu), are expected to get regulatory and local approval for restart by autumn 2014. There are three-four further reactors which could be restarted by the end of 2014. Local agreement is taking longer in some places than others. Many of the delays are due to the need for reactors to have local agreement for evacuation plans for local residents within a 30 km radius (previously this was 10km). Those further than 10 km from the plant see less of the benefits of hosting reactors and tend to be less willing to allow restarts. When the restarts do happen, LNG and oil imports will be reduced first, rather than coal: good for global gas demand and Japans’ economy, not so good for their emissions.

0.4 Comment

Cabinet agreement on the new Energy Plan has been in the offing for some time and its contents are not surprising. They could allow for Japan to get 8-10 reactors restarted by the middle of 2015. The very gradual pace of Japanese restarts means the beneficial effect in reducing global LNG demand will be quite limited at least for the next 12 months. By the time of the next Energy Plan in 2016-7 though, it is possible that Japan could have up to 20-30 reactors running which would have a noticeable if not game-changing effect in reducing global LNG demand.

0.5 Disclaimer

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