Improving probabilistic flood risk modelling
A project to develop a new method of validating probabilistic flood model results and trial new methods of conducting local probabilistic flood risk assessments.
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Details
This project by the Environment Agency looks at ways to improve our confidence in the use of probabilistic flood modelling as part of risk assessments to help manage flood risk.
Probabilistic models provide a better estimate of risk by considering uncertainty and giving an estimate of confidence. This allows users to make more informed decisions. However, there are challenges with probabilistic forecasting, such as how to validate probabilistic results. For example, whether there’s a 2% chance of being flooded. Another challenge is how to best use more detailed models in a probabilistic manner.
This project produced new evidence and prototype methods, which improve knowledge and understanding through the:
- development and testing of a new approach to validating probabilistic flood model results
- trialling of new methods of conducting local probabilistic flood risk assessments
This project ran from 2009 to 2012.