Research and analysis

Heathrow expansion economic impact modelling

Estimates of the economic impacts of Heathrow expansion using spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) modelling.

• From: Department for Transport
• Published: 30 June 2026

Documents

Spatial computable general equilibrium modelling of capacity expansion at Heathrow Airport

PDF, 1.12 MB, 69 pages

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S-CGE modelling of Heathrow Airport expansion peer review

PDF, 571 KB, 36 pages

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Aviation connectivity and economic growth literature review

PDF, 1.33 MB, 102 pages

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Details

This assessment estimates the potential impact of the expansion of Heathrow Airport on the UK economy, including GDP, trade and employment.

This research informs the government’s review of the Airports National Policy Statement (ANPS) and the Draft Heathrow Expansion National Policy Statement (HENPS).

To support this assessment, DfT commissioned 2 further pieces of work:

• a peer review of the above spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) modelling
• a literature review of existing research on the relationship between aviation, connectivity and economic growth

The Department for Transport (DfT) commissioned Frontier Economics to undertake this SCGE modelling research and Peak Economics to undertake the literature review and peer review.

Published 30 June 2026