Transparency data

Northern Powerhouse Rail: Millington to Manchester alignment for the route between Liverpool and Manchester - accounting officer assessment summary (January 2026)

Updated 14 January 2026

Background

This accounting officer assessment (AOA) summary has been completed following the government’s decision to proceed with Northern Powerhouse Rail, and to do so on the basis of a route between Liverpool and Manchester, which serves Manchester Airport and makes use of the former HS2 alignment into Manchester via Millington.

Overview

Relative to comparable economies such as Germany and France, the UK has both lower labour productivity and a long-standing internal regional productivity gap. London is one of the most productive regions in Europe, but regional imbalances in the UK are greater than in any other OECD country, which can also be seen in lower living standards (income), even after adjusting for housing costs. The major cities of the North of England together have a population similar to London, but an economy half the size, so the opportunity to drive growth is substantial (alongside wider local and national policy interventions on business, jobs and housing).

One reason for this regional economic divergence is that much of the rail and road infrastructure in the North of England is highly congested, hindering opportunities to live in one city and work in another. The rail network in the North of England is largely a Victorian two-track railway with limited electrification, constraining the effective capacity for both passenger and freight services. This means that services run less frequently and at lower speeds than is typically the case elsewhere in the country. This discourages rail travel between northern cities and diminishes the economic advantages of close geographic proximity.

NPR will address the government’s commitment to supporting growth across the North, strengthening regional and inter-regional connectivity. It will also support the ultimate completion of a new line from Manchester to Birmingham, capable of providing services to London and capacity and connectivity (in terms of journey time, reliability, frequency, train paths and number of seats) for the wider North West and Scotland. It will create a turn-up-and-go railway across the Northern Growth Corridor cities of Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield, Leeds and Bradford, with regular services continuing to Newcastle, Hull and to Chester for North Wales connections. An element of this will be proceeding with a route between Liverpool and Manchester, which serves Manchester Airport and makes use of the former HS2 alignment into Manchester via Millington.

Regularity

Forecast spend in 2025 to 2026 and in 2026 to 2027 (ahead of the next programme business case) is affordable within the budget agreed at the Spending Review. This expenditure will focus on the development of more detailed plans, seeking to optimise benefits and reduce scope and cost through value engineering and developing a delivery and construction methodology aimed at ensuring efficient delivery. Delivery of Northern Powerhouse Rail in the medium and long term will be reliant on agreeing funding at future spending reviews, as is always the case with programmes that will be delivered over many years.

Legal authority for spend on NPR is covered by section 6 Railways Act 2005, which provides a power to spend on rail enhancements. The High Speed Rail (Crewe- Manchester) Bill will then provide powers to construct a section of NPR between Manchester and Millington, as well as spending powers associated with the construction of that infrastructure. Given the broad scope of section 6 of the 2005 Act, the inclusion of spending powers in the hybrid bill is arguably extraneous, but they are included as a courtesy to Parliament, given the substantial nature of the spend.

Value for money

The BCR of the NPR programme overall was last assessed as 0.4, following the then government’s Network North announcement, and will be subject to change as the analysis is developed as part of the programme business case.

As set out above, there is also a strong strategic case for the scheme as part of the government’s overall strategy for the North. It is reasonable to assume wider economic benefits across the North from the government’s overall strategy, but the level of those benefits will be highly dependent on wider factors, some of which could be outside of central government’s control. In isolation, the value for money of the transport initiatives will be much more limited and the relative value for money of the different options will vary.

The government has selected the Millington route as its preferred route between Manchester and Liverpool. Based on the information available today there are potentially other routes available between Manchester and Liverpool that would deliver better value for money if connectivity between those two cities is considered in isolation, although these routes would not be aligned with local growth plans (including a strong desire to put the airport at the heart of plans) and so may not deliver the same transformational benefits.

The government has been clear, however, one of the values of the Liverpool-Manchester line via Millington is to support the ultimate delivery of a future new line south from Manchester to Birmingham that is also capable of supporting capacity and connectivity (in terms of journey time, reliability, frequency, train paths and number of seats) to the wider North West and Scotland. The government has assessed that, on the basis of ongoing investment to deliver a more balanced and productive economy, ultimately the country will require the additional capacity and connectivity of a full new line. Long term projections of demand for rail services are always highly uncertain and this is exacerbated both by COVID-19 and the well-documented challenges around reliable West Coast Main Line services. Both will have suppressed demand to an extent and make it particularly difficult to assess the long-term growth trajectory.

While there is uncertainty about demand at this stage, the government’s clear strategic objective is to ultimately build such a new line connecting Manchester and Birmingham and that the line from Liverpool to Manchester should represent the first increment of this north-south work. The only option that will deliver this objective is the route via Millington, and therefore it represents the best value for money approach to deliver the government’s objectives. Construction of remaining elements will follow completion of the Northern Powerhouse programme and it will be essential to learn lessons from HS2 and ensure specification is carefully considered

Propriety

Decision making will continue to be supported by strong internal governance. NPR is a Tier 1 GMPP programme. The NPR programme business case (PBC) – expected summer 2026 – will be subject to formal oversight by the NPR Programme Board, DfT Centres of Excellence, DfT’s Investment Committee, and the cross-government Major Projects Review Group.

Feasibility

The next phase of development work on the Liverpool to Manchester section will be conducted through HS2 Ltd and whilst there is a future decision to come about responsibility for actual construction, we judge there is sufficient time before construction would start to either ensure adequate capacity at one of the department’s existing delivery bodies or to create a new one.

Conclusion

The major cities of the North of England have a comparable population to Greater London, but an economy less than half the size. NPR could deliver significant transformational benefits across the North of England in terms of not just transport, but additional economic output, jobs and welfare improvements, including widening the aggregated local market through better connected towns and cities and directly supporting Foreign Direct Investment and international connectivity through Manchester Airport.

The current strategic case for NPR as a whole is strong and made stronger by its inclusion as a key plank of a wider economic plan for the North. With regard to Liverpool-Manchester connectivity, the Millington route is the only route which delivers the government’s strategic objective of supporting a balanced and productive national economy, requiring the ultimate completion of a new line from Manchester to Birmingham capable of providing services to London and capacity and connectivity for the wider North West and Scotland. While the extremely long time periods mean there will always be uncertainty, on balance, I am satisfied that the government’s decisions on the overall NPR programme and Liverpool-Manchester line specifically are in the public interest and consistent with the requirements of managing public money for the reasons set out above.

A full revised AOA, including an updated value for money (VfM) assessment, will be carried out alongside the revised programme business case in summer 2026.