Free School Meals expansion to all children on Universal Credit – Impact on individual and child poverty levels and number of children in households receiving Universal Credit
Published 5 June 2025
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Introduction
In June 2025, the UK government announced that, from September 2026, the eligibility criteria for Free School Meals (FSM) in England will be expanded to all children in families receiving Universal Credit. This is a key milestone in the Government’s agenda to tackle Child Poverty and ensure all children have the Best Start in Life. Full details of the former will be set out later this year in our comprehensive Child Poverty Strategy targeted at tackling the structural and root causes of Child Poverty across the country.
This publication provides estimates of the impact of the policy change on the numbers and proportions of individuals in poverty by age group in FYE 2030. It also includes information on the number of children in households in England in receipt of Universal Credit by parliamentary constituency and age.
Methodology
Free School Meals count as income-in-kind for Households Below Average Income (HBAI). Therefore, an increase in the number of eligible children impacts the number of children in low-income.
The Department for Work and Pensions’ Policy Simulation Model (PSM) is used to model the impact of policies on individuals and poverty levels in the UK. The PSM is a static microsimulation model based on a snapshot of the UK population from the Family Resources Survey (FRS), currently for the financial years ending 2020, 2022 and 2023. It uses caseload forecasts alongside benefit rules to simulate results such as poverty levels for each year, currently up to and including FYE 2030.
To model the impact of policies on poverty the PSM compares new policies to a baseline scenario, which assumes existing benefit rules. It estimates the effect of the policies on equivalised household incomes both before (BHC) and after housing costs (AHC) and uses this information to estimate the change in poverty rates due to the policy.
As the poverty impacts presented are independent of the underlying trends in poverty, they are not an estimate of the change in poverty over time
This analysis has some limitations. The PSM models eligibility for FSM rather than take-up. This means that both the baseline and alternative scenarios assume 100% take-up of FSM by eligible children. The analysis also does not account for Transitional Protections (TP) for FSM. These were introduced in 2018 to protect families while UC rolled out and meant that children in families who lost eligibility to FSM could still receive them while UC was being rolled out and then until the end of their current phase of schooling.
Transitional protections mean some of the children gaining from the measure are in practice already currently receiving FSM. However, the impact on the analysis for FYE 2030 is expected to be minimal given these protections were being phased out from April 2025.
Estimates are rounded to the nearest 50,000 individuals and the nearest 0.1 percentage point due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach.
Poverty analysis is presented for four measures of poverty, both relative and absolute low income, both before and after housing costs. Further information on the methodology behind these measures can be found in How low income is measured in households below average income statistics and Household below average income series: quality and methodology information report FYE 2021.
Numbers of children by school year and 2024 Parliamentary Constituency derived from UC admin data. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 10 children, and so the numbers for each school year may not add to the totals shown for Reception to Year 11. In England in November 2024, there were 3,389,480 children in UC households that were in the Reception to Year 11 school year groups. 2024 Parliamentary Constituency and year group breakdowns are included in the accompanying spreadsheet.
Poverty impacts of the policy change
It is estimated that there will be 150,000 fewer people in relative poverty after housing costs in FYE 2030 as a result of expanding Free School Meals in England to all children on Universal Credit, compared to baseline projections. This includes 100,000 fewer children in relative poverty after housing costs compared to the baseline.
For all other measures of poverty for children and other individuals, see table 1.
| Change in poverty levels compared to baseline (FYE 2030) | Relative poverty AHC | Absolute poverty AHC | Relative poverty BHC | Absolute poverty BHC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Children (number) | -100,000 | -100,000 | -100,000 | -50,000 |
| Children (percentage points) | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| Working age adults (number) | -50,000 | -50,000 | -50,000 | -50,000 |
| Working age adults (percentage points) | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Pensioners (number) | - | - | - | - |
| Pensioners (percentage points) | - | - | 0.1 | - |
| All individuals (number) | -150,000 | -150,000 | -100,000 | -100,000 |
| All individuals (percentage points) | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding
Statement of compliance with the Code of Practice for Statistics
The Code of Practice for Statistics (the Code) is built around 3 main concepts, or pillars:
- trustworthiness – is about having confidence in the people and organisations that publish statistics
- quality – is about using data and methods that produce statistics
- value – is about publishing statistics that support society’s needs
The following explains how we have applied the pillars of the Code in a proportionate way.
Trustworthiness
The figures were created following internal Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) interest in understanding the impact of expanding Free School Meals in England to all children in families receiving Universal Credit on household incomes and individuals in low income. They are being published to give equal access to all those with an interest in them.
Quality
The data that underpins this information is taken from DWP’s Policy Simulation Model, DWP’s administrative data and includes caseload forecasts taken from DWP and HMRC data.
The information used refers to individuals and families who will be affected by the change to the Free School Meal eligibility requirements, as above.
Value
Releasing this information serves the public interest in the poverty impacts of expanding Free School Meals in England to all children in families receiving Universal Credit. The figures also help reduce the administrative burden of answering Parliamentary questions, Freedom of Information requests and other forms of ad hoc enquiry and serves public.
Further information and feedback
Contact DWP Press Office if you have any questions or feedback.