Research and analysis

Forecasting 2020 waste arisings and treatment capacity

This paper sets out the analysis used to forecast levels of waste arisings and treatment capacity in England in 2020.


Forecasting 2020 waste arisings and treatment capacity

Data for household waste arisings forecasts contained in figure 2

Request an accessible format.
If you use assistive technology (such as a screen reader) and need a version of this document in a more accessible format, please email Please tell us what format you need. It will help us if you say what assistive technology you use.


The forecasts are used to assess the amount of biodegradable municipal waste that goes to landfill and hence whether England is expected to meet the necessary requirements of the EU Landfill Directive. The analysis provides estimates of the likelihood of meeting the Landfill Directive target and the impact of withdrawing Defra’s provisional allocation of financial support for three residual waste projects.

This paper is a revised version of that published in February 2013. This is because the original analysis in February 2013 did not fully account for all of the known potential capacity expected to be delivered by 2020. This meant that the likelihood of meeting the target was underestimated. The revised publication contains more details of the changes made.

See also

Published 21 February 2013
Last updated 4 March 2014 + show all updates
  1. Further annex relating to raw data underlying figure 2 in the above report.

  2. Added a revised version of the document.

  3. First published.