Estimating pupil numbers: how to complete your return for 2027 to 2028
How to complete the estimating pupil numbers form for academic year 2027 to 2028.
Applies to England
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The estimating pupil numbers form is now available for schools to provide estimated pupil numbers for the academic year 2027 to 2028, where the funding agreement allows for estimate funding.
Please submit your form by 5:00pm on Friday, 23 October 2026. Your final budgets may be delayed if we do not receive your pupil number estimates by the deadline.
For multi-academy trusts (MATs), a return is required for each estimate funded academy in your trust. Once logged into the form, you will be able to see details for all academies within your trust that are in scope of this process.
We appreciate that estimating pupil numbers is not an exact science and can prove challenging. For most schools, a reasonable starting point to determine your estimated pupil numbers for the academic year 2027 to 2028 is your current actual intake. Where schools are expecting new year groups to be occupied within academic year 2027 to 2028, these should be reflected in the return.
Trusts that have met the conditions in their funding agreement to move to census funding
It may be that the basis of funding for your academy will change to the census for 2027 to 2028. This is because, for most estimate funded institutions, determining the pupil number basis for funding requires certain conditions to be met. These conditions are set out in the funding agreement and, in most cases, relate to occupancy levels or that there are pupils in all expected year groups. We will use the autumn 2026 census to establish if these conditions have been met.
If the conditions have been met, the academy will move onto the lagged basis of funding methodology which will use the autumn 2026 census to determine the pupil numbers in the general annual grant (GAG) allocation. There is no pupil number adjustment with the lagged methodology.
Validated autumn 2026 school census data will be available in December 2026. We will then be able to determine the funding basis for academies with these conditional clauses. We are therefore asking for these estimates now as it will be too late to request EPN in time to inform this funding allocation round. We will confirm whether the basis for funding will be lagged or estimates for your academy in January 2027.