Research and analysis
Estimated progression model tranche release volumes
This report sets out the methodology and estimates for the volume of offenders expected to be released on the first day of each progression model tranche release from October 2026 to June 2027.
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Details
This analytical transparency report sets out the methodology and estimates for the volume of offenders expected to be released, and those ineligible due to introduced offence exclusions, on the first day of releases for each progression model tranche from October 2026 to June 2027.
Updates to this page
Published 30 August 2026