Research and analysis

Dry weather and drought in England: 9 to 15 October 2026

Updated 16 October 2026

Applies to England

1. Summary

The drought situation in England has continued to worsen, despite some rainfall across parts of the country. Although rainfall during the week was above average in some north-western areas, October as a whole remains much drier than normal. River flows increased at the majority of sites we report on when compared to the previous week, although most sites remain classed as below normal or lower for the time of year. Groundwater levels continue their expected seasonal decline at most sites, with groundwater status categories largely similar to the previous week. Reservoir levels continue to be exceptionally low, with national storage at 54% of capacity, around 21% below the long-term average (LTA) for this time of year. Eighteen reservoir groups are now less than 50% full, with 11 classed as exceptionally low.

On 9 October, Yorkshire area moved into drought status. On 15 October, the government declared severe drought in parts of Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Somerset, East Sussex and West Sussex. 

Water demand is relatively stable as a result of cooler temperatures and the implementation of temporary use bans (TUBs), although it remains above expected levels in some areas. Public water supply reservoir and groundwater storage continues to decline for several water companies, although for some the rate of decline has slowed. Further significant rainfall is needed to return to normal water resource conditions for many water companies. There have been no changes to the TUBs in place. Water companies continue to progress drought permits and orders. Public water supply concerns are currently focused around Wimbleball reservoir in the south-west and Ardingly reservoir in the south-east.

There are growing concerns that farmers may not be able to refill water storage reservoirs over the winter because reservoir levels are exceptionally low and river flows remain below normal, particularly across central and southern England. This could affect water availability for the 2027 irrigation season. We released an updated regulatory position statement on 1 October to allow existing abstraction licence holders to take water outside of their authorised abstraction period for filling water storage reservoirs subject to specified conditions.

Numbers of confirmed environmental incidents caused by drought and dry weather continue to increase, though this has slowed since the end of August, with a smaller increase this week.

The Canal & River Trust has seen some improvements in more reactive reservoirs in northern canal sections and a reduction in the number of canal restrictions and closures. Overall, most canals have seen no significant recovery.

2. Active temporary use bans (TUBs)

The following companies have implemented TUBs, in all or part of their supply areas:

• Affinity Water – Central and East regions, covering Bedfordshire, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Hertfordshire, Surrey, and parts of London and Essex
• Anglian Water – whole company area, excluding Hartlepool
• Bristol Water – whole company area
• Cambridge Water – whole company area
• Essex and Suffolk Water – whole company area
• Southern Water – Hampshire and the Isle of Wight
• South East Water – whole company area
• South West Water – whole company area, excluding Bournemouth
• Thames Water – whole company area
• Wessex Water – whole company area

The Water Industry Act 1991 incorporates legislation which makes provision for another water undertaker to supply sites within an existing water undertaker’s area. Where an alternative undertaker is appointed, a New Appointment and Variation (NAV) is made by Ofwat. Companies operating as a NAV have the same legal duties and responsibilities as other water companies to produce drought plans. NAVs can have their own sources of supply but are primarily supplied by bulk supply agreements with the water undertaker in the area. NAV TUBs were introduced at the same time as their respective incumbent companies as follows:

• Leaf Water implemented TUBs for its customers in areas supplied by South East Water, Essex and Suffolk Water, and Cambridge Water
• Albion Water implemented TUBs for its customers in areas supplied by Thames Water
• Leep Water implemented TUBs for its customers in areas supplied by South East Water, Southern Water, South West Water, Thames Water, Wessex Water, Anglian Water, Affinity Water, Bristol Water, and Essex and Suffolk Water
• Independent Water Networks (IWN) implemented TUBs for its customers in areas supplied by South East Water, Southern Water, South West Water, Thames Water, Wessex Water, Anglian Water, Affinity Water, Bristol Water, Cambridge Water, and Essex and Suffolk Water
• Last Mile Water implemented TUBs for its customers in areas supplied by South East Water, Southern Water, South West Water, Anglian Water, Affinity Water, Thames Water, Essex and Suffolk Water, Wessex Water and Bristol Water
• MUA implemented TUBs for its customers in areas supplied by Affinity Water and Anglian Water
• ESP implemented TUBs for its customers in areas supplied by Bristol Water, Wessex Water, Thames Water, South East Water, Affinity Water and Anglian Water
• Matrix implemented TUBs for its customers in areas supplied by Thames Water

Further information can be found on each company’s website.

3. Area drought status

There have been changes in area drought status this week. On 15 October the government declared severe drought in parts of Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Somerset, East Sussex and West Sussex.

3.1 Figure 1: Environment Agency drought status

3.2 Areas in severe drought

Parts of:

• Wessex
• Devon Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly
• Solent and South Downs
• Kent and South London

3.3 Areas in drought

• East Anglia
• Hertfordshire and North London
• Thames
• Devon, Cornwall and Isles of Scilly
• West Midlands
• Kent and South London
• Solent and South Downs
• East Midlands
• Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire
• Yorkshire

3.4 Areas in prolonged dry weather

• Northeast
• Cumbria and Lancashire
• Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Cheshire

3.5 How the stages of drought response work

Each area is reviewing its status depending on the triggers they have outlined in their drought plan.

More detail of how we manage drought, including our 4 stages of drought response, is available in Drought: how it is managed in England.

4. Current water situation

It has been a wetter week across much of England, particularly in the north-west, although rainfall totals for October to date are below average in all regions. Rainfall totals ranged from 10mm in central and south-east England to 33mm in the north-west. Rainfall totals for October to date range from 18% of the LTA in south-east and south-west England to 41% in the north-west. For England as a whole, 26% of the October LTA has been received to date.

River flows increased at the majority of sites we report on when compared to the previous week, although most sites remain classed as below normal or lower for the time of year. Fourteen sites (25%) were classed as normal and one site (2%) was classed as above normal. Twenty-four sites (44% of the total) were classed as below normal and 10 sites (18%) were classed as notably low. Six sites (11%) were classed as exceptionally low:

• the Rivers Yare and Ely Ouse in east England
• the Rivers Derwent and Wear in north-east England
• the Bristol Avon and River Tone in south-west England

Groundwater levels continue their expected seasonal decline at most sites, with groundwater status categories largely similar to the previous week. Chalk aquifer sites are all normal or lower for the time of year, with a number classed as notably or exceptionally low. Groundwater levels are classed as exceptionally low at:

• Tilshead in the upper Hampshire Avon Chalk
• Chipstead in the Epsom North Downs Chalk
• Jackaments Bottom in the oolitic limestone of the Cotswolds

Over two-thirds of reservoirs recorded a decrease in storage in the week ending 13 October 2026, whilst 10 reservoirs predominately in northern England and Wales recorded an increase. Overall, England storage remains at 54%. Despite a slight increase in storage in northern reservoirs storage overall is now 21% below average for the time of year. Eighteen reservoirs groups are now less than 50% full, and all except 2 are classed as below normal or lower for the time of year. Eleven reservoirs or reservoir groups are now classed as exceptionally low (Figure 2):

• Ardingly reservoir operated by South East Water
• Clatworthy reservoir operated by Wessex Water
• Colliford, Wimbleball and Stithans reservoirs operated by South West Water
• Chew Valley operated by Bristol Water
• Dove Group operated by Severn Trent Water, where winter refill was impacted by water quality and operational issues
• Hanningfield reservoir operated by Essex and Suffolk Water
• Pennines Group operated by United Utilities Water
• Grafham Water and Rutland Water reservoirs operated by Anglian Water

More details are available in our water situation reports for England.

Figure 2: Reservoir stocks at key individual and groups of reservoirs for week ending 13 October 2026 as a percentage of total capacity and classed relative to an analysis of historic values.

Classes shown may not necessarily relate to control curves or triggers for drought actions. As well as for public water supply, some reservoirs are drawn down to provide flood storage, river compensation flows or for reservoir safety inspections. In some cases, current reservoir operating rules may differ from historic ones.

Kielder reservoir levels are lower than historic levels due to a new flood alleviation control curve in use. The Dee System, Elan Valley Group, Clywedog and Vyrnwy reservoirs provide water resources to central and north-west England. Teesdale Group is impacted by planned maintenance and safety works. The Dove Group and Lower Thames Group are impacted by a previously planned outage.

5. Public water supply

Water demand is relatively stable as a result of cooler temperatures and the implementation of TUBs, although it remains above expected levels in some areas. Public water supply reservoir and groundwater storage continues to decline for several water companies, although for some the rate of decline has slowed. Further significant rainfall is needed to return to normal water resource conditions for many water companies. 

Water companies report their drought response using operational drought levels, from drought level (DL) 1 escalating to DL4. We expect water companies to follow their drought plans and act early to ensure there are sufficient supplies.

We regularly engage with all water companies. The companies not included here are in business as usual (BAU). Further information on the situation can be found on each water company’s website.

5.1 Affinity Water

Affinity Water remains at business as usual (BAU). Its East region has reached the company’s environmental trigger. TUBs remain in place for customers in its Central region and East region, driven by high demand.

5.2 Anglian Water

Anglian Water remains at DL2 in its Fenland and Norfolk, Norwich and Broads water resource zones (WRZ). Ruthamford, Lincolnshire and Suffolk remain at DL1. TUBs remain in place across the whole company area, except for Hartlepool.

5.3 Bristol Water

Bristol Water remains in DL1. TUBs remain in place for all customers to help protect flows on the River Severn, after an application for a drought order by the Environment Agency.

5.4 Cambridge Water

Cambridge Water remains at DL1. TUBs remain in place for all its customers.

5.5 Essex and Suffolk Water

Essex and Suffolk Water remains at DL2 in all WRZs. TUBs remain in place for all its customers.

5.6 Northumbrian Water

Northumbrian Water remains at DL1 in all its WRZs.

5.7 Severn Trent Water

Severn Trent Water remains at DL2 in its North Staffs WRZ and in DL1 in its Strategic Grid North WRZ.

5.8 Southern Water

Southern Water is at DL1 in its Hampshire and Isle of Wight WRZs. Other WRZs remain at BAU. TUBs are still in force for customers in the Hampshire and the Isle of Wight area. The company applied to the Secretary of State for a drought order on the River Test and a non-essential drought order on 31 July. A public hearing was held on 25 August and additional information submitted on 27 August. We are awaiting the Secretary of State decision.

5.9 South East Water

The company is in DL3 in its Eastbourne and Haywards Heath WRZs. All other WRZs remain at DL1. Company-wide TUBs remain in force. The Environment Agency granted South East Water’s River Ouse (Ardingly reservoir) drought permit on 29 September. A non essential use ban (NEUB) drought order application was submitted on 2 October.

5.10 South West Water

South West Water’s Colliford WRZ, Roadford WRZ and Isles of Scilly remain at DL1. Wimbleball WRZ remains at DL3. TUBs remain in place for all South West Water customers, excluding Bournemouth. On the 2 October, a drought permit was issued at Wimbleball to reduce the compensation flow. Further information can be found on the company’s website. An application for a NEUB drought order was submitted on the 6 October. Storage at several reservoirs continues to decline.

5.11 South Staffordshire Water

South Staffordshire Water remains at DL2.

5.12 Thames Water

Thames Water remains at DL2 in all its WRZs. Company-wide TUBs remain in force. The Environment Agency granted the company’s Farmoor drought permit on 29 September.

5.13 United Utilities

United Utilities Strategic Resource Zone (SRZ) moved out of DL1 on Tuesday the 13 October. Carlisle WRZ remains in BAU.

5.14 Veolia Water

Veolia Water remains in DL2.

5.15 Wessex Water

Wessex Water remains in DL3. Storage at several reservoirs continues to decline. Company-wide TUBs remain in force.

5.16 Yorkshire Water

Yorkshire Water remains at DL1 in its Grid WRZ. 

6. Agriculture

There are increasing concerns for the agriculture sector regarding the ability for abstractors to refill storage reservoirs over the winter season. Some storage reservoirs are at historic lows due to the early start to the irrigation season and high demand for water this year. With river flows remaining below normal especially across central and southern parts of England, this is likely to impact the ability for abstractors to refill reservoirs, if the dry conditions continue. With continued uncertainty on water availability for next year, some farmers are considering planting smaller crop areas for irrigation, in particular high value vegetable crops.

To help support abstractors refill reservoirs ahead of November, we have adopted a flexible approach with an updated regulatory position statement, released on 1 October. This will allow existing abstraction licence holders to take water outside of their authorised abstraction period for the purpose of filling water storage reservoirs from 1 to 31 October, providing they meet conditions outlined in Abstraction outside the authorised period for filling water storage reservoirs: RPS 382.

Many rivers remain below normal for the time of year and consequently some licence restrictions remain in force to protect the environment. There are currently 449 restrictions on abstraction licences. Formal section 57 restrictions remain in place in parts of East Anglia until 31 October. There are 1,383 voluntary restrictions in place reducing abstraction by 50%. Restrictions are spread across the Thames, Wye and Severn catchments.

The Environment Agency continues to work closely with abstractors on the implementation of any formal restrictions and is supporting farmers to help improve water resilience. We have received 42 flexible abstraction requests from the agriculture sector to date.

To protect rivers from pollution, farmers are advised to assess ground and weather conditions before spreading organic manures, including slurries.

7. Environment

Numbers of confirmed incidents caused by drought and dry weather continue to increase, though this has slowed since the end of August, with a smaller increase this week. The total of 403 incidents recorded since the start of 2026 now exceeds the overall total for 2022 (380) and 2025 (321). This figure of 403 will increase further due to reporting lags.

There have been 41 confirmed algae and 99 confirmed dead fish incidents that have been attributed to drought and dry weather in NIRS since the start of 2026. Ecological results are showing signs of drought and prolonged dry weather impacts in a number of catchments.

These figures are notably higher than the 2025 equivalent totals for incidents with algae and dead fish (attributed to drought and dry weather). The numbers attributed to drought and dry weather are likely under-recorded across all years.

To date there have been 186 confirmed abstraction or low flow incidents since the start of 2026, which is higher than the equivalent total from 2025. Relatively high numbers of drought and dry weather incidents have been reported in Devon, Cornwall and Isles of Scilly, East Anglia, Greater Manchester, Hertfordshire and North London, West Midlands and Thames areas this year.

8. Navigation

The Canal & River Trust has seen some improvements in more reactive reservoirs in northern canal sections and a reduction in the number of canal restrictions and closures, but overall, most canals have seen no significant recovery. Several lock flights on the Leeds and Liverpool Canal have restricted operating hours, but the canal is otherwise open to navigation.

Reservoir-fed canals are particularly affected, with reservoir feeds being restricted and compensation flows reduced. Restrictions are now very unlikely to become closures with recent rainfall and reducing demands. The Canal & River Trust is continuing its drought response and winter preparedness.

In Hertfordshire and North London area, some navigations have been closed to boat traffic.

Within Environment Agency navigation, current drought related closures remain in place across the River Thames and published Lock and Weir Keeper assisted passage and lock operating hours are in force. Locks subject to drought restrictions will be available for navigation each day between certain times. This will ensure there is sufficient time to implement and remove the restrictions safely at the beginning and end of each day. Locks continuing with navigation restrictions are St. John’s to Osney, Culham to Going and Penton Hook to Teddington.

At the end of November, there will be an end of season drought update for the River Wye in the West Midlands to the commercial canoe hire businesses. Boating activities are now mainly limited to rowing events at some clubs based in Monmouth as well as some canoe slalom events at Symonds Yat.

9. Weather forecast

Friday will see sunny spells and scattered showers after early rain clears the south-east. The weekend is expected to be largely dry and settled, although some showers are possible in eastern areas, with temperatures feeling much cooler. Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain mostly settled under the influence of high pressure, with generally dry conditions across England and only occasional outbreaks of rain moving in from the west or south-west.

10. Drought readiness actions

The Environment Agency has activated its incident response arrangements, with Gold Command structures in place and drought plans being implemented to support early intervention and coordinated action.

Enhanced communications activity being taken includes: 

• issuing press notices and holding media briefings
• increasing engagement with stakeholders, local partners and MPs
• publishing a weekly drought update on GOV.UK

The Environment Agency has strengthened environmental monitoring, increasing both surveillance and operational interventions to identify, assess and mitigate potential environmental impacts of the drought.

The National Drought Group continues to meet regularly to monitor risks, preparation and impacts of the ongoing drought. The next scheduled meeting is on 19 October.

11. Contact us

Contact drought.national@environment-agency.gov.uk if you have questions about this report.