Research and analysis

4. Agriculture - drought risks, impacts and actions: Drought prospects for spring 2026

Published 14 November 2025

Applies to England

The impact of drought on agriculture this year has been significant. Farmers have experienced a challenging and difficult season with poor grass growth, low forage yields and, where no irrigation has been available, reduced quality and yields for field vegetables.  

The harvest season finishes with minimal reservoir volumes available for carry-over to next year for irrigation and dry soils. The success and yield of crops planted this winter and next spring are dependent on the rainfall this winter and groundwater recharge. This is needed to improve soil moisture and refill reservoirs (where farmers have this available as a resilience option). 

Autumn drilled crops (for example oil seed rape and winter wheat) are dependent on soil moisture for germination. The decisions made by farmers on timing of drilling will affect germination success and requirements for the control of black grass, pests and disease risk. Some areas of England have seen improving soil moisture, whilst others have not. 

For livestock producers, this year has been poor for growing forage stocks. The dry conditions have led to farmers feeding existing forage stocks to their livestock in the summer months. Producers are looking to extend the grazing season as long as possible to reduce costs. Some livestock businesses are now short of forage for feeding their livestock over the winter months and will need to find alternative sources such as by-product feeds or sell their stock. 

The risk to agriculture of a dry autumn and winter is complex as farming is affected by a multitude of different factors, of which winter rainfall is but one. The impacts of the 3 rainfall scenarios on this sector will now be considered below.  

4.1 100% long-term average rainfall scenario 

In this rainfall scenario, the sector expects most irrigation reservoirs across the country to be sufficiently refilled ahead of next year’s irrigation season as shown in figure 10.  

Prospects are good across most parts of England, but where groundwater or river flows are below normal over the winter, there is a risk that some reservoirs may not completely refill ahead of the irrigation season. This is because there may be some local restrictions on abstraction. 

Figure 10: Irrigation reservoir refill prospects under 100% LTA rainfall scenario

4.2 80% long-term average rainfall scenario 

In this rainfall scenario, the sector expects there will be a risk that not all irrigation reservoirs will be completely refilled. Figure 11 shows that the prospects of refilling irrigation reservoirs over the winter are moderate across most parts of England. West Midlands is an exception, where poor conditions are expected under this scenario. Good conditions are expected across Yorkshire, Wessex and Devon, Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly area. 

Hands-off flow restrictions will likely be in force, especially as river flows and groundwater are projected to be below average through to March 2026 under this scenario. Hands off flows are in-built conditions on some abstraction licences. They require abstractors to either reduce or stop abstraction when river flows fall below a predetermined level set out in the licence. This will limit reservoir refill and is likely to increase the risk to water supplies for crops that require irrigation in spring 2026.  

Some impacts on agriculture will depend on whether farm storage reservoirs can be successfully recharged to full capacity and whether soils have wetted sufficiently for non-irrigated crops to thrive. This scenario is likely to result in reduced vegetable production and cropping plans may need to be reviewed if there are concerns around water availability for next year. 

Under this scenario, there is also an increased risk that Section 57 restrictions may be required during the spring across some areas of the country. This is especially the case if groundwater and river flows are significantly below average. Section 57 restrictions are emergency restrictions for spray irrigation only. They are implemented as part of a phased approach to reduce water abstraction, to protect the environment when water resources are critically low. 

Figure 11: Irrigation reservoir refill prospects under 80% LTA rainfall scenario

4.3 60% long-term average rainfall scenario 

In this scenario, there is a significant risk that irrigation reservoirs will not be refilled sufficiently by the spring. Figure 12 shows that reservoir refill prospects are poor across most areas of England with the exception to Yorkshire, East Midlands, Wessex and Devon, Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly area that are expected to have moderate prospects. 

Hands-off flow abstraction restrictions are likely to be widespread. This is because river flows and groundwater levels are projected to be exceptionally low across most parts of England through to March 2026 under this scenario. This will significantly reduce the ability for irrigators to adequately refill reservoirs ahead of spring and will impact on water resilience for next year. 

The lack of access to water for irrigating crops in spring and the possibility of early hands-off flow restrictions are likely to make this situation far worse in terms of reduced vegetable production next year. 

Low rainfall into spring 2026 could also impact grass growth. With an already limited supply of forage going into winter, forage is unlikely to be available at reasonable cost. Soils are unlikely to have rewetted over the winter which in turn will result in a limited and reduced recharge of groundwater. 

There is also a significant risk of Section 57 restrictions on spray irrigation being implemented during the spring. This is particularly for areas where groundwater and river flows are likely to be significantly below average.

Figure 12: Irrigation reservoir refill prospects under 60% LTA rainfall

4.4 Actions by the farming community to reduce the impacts of a dry winter and drought in spring 2026 

Some farmers might choose to adjust their cropping patterns to grow more drought tolerant crops or adjust areas based on limited water availability. Farmers can seek to trade water rights, form abstractor groups to share water or apply for variations to their abstraction licences so they have enough resilience in place. Alternatively, farmers may decide whether to adjust their cropping patterns to include more drought tolerant crops or varieties (with a move away from field vegetables).  

These decisions will be made based not only on water availability but also on disease pressure and demand from producers. 

We are supporting farmers with a continued package of measures which are described below. 

Short term access to water 

Short term options may be available to improve access to water outside of licence conditions provided that other abstractors and the environment remain protected.  

For more information see the our guidance water abstraction during prolonged dry weather and drought. We will talk to farmers about short-term options for improving access to water outside abstraction licence conditions. 

Regulatory position statements 

Our regulatory position statement available that covers information on when abstractors can take water outside of abstraction licence conditions during a flood warning. 

Trading water rights 

Abstractors can consider trading water rights with other licence holders or sharing water to improve access to water supplies. See guidance on trading water abstraction rights which includes links to Help for Water Rights Trading Data and a water rights trading map.   

Managing abstraction or impoundment licences online 

Sign up to our Managing your water abstraction or impoundment licence online service. This will allow abstractors to submit abstraction returns and view their licence information. Some licence holders will also have access to water abstraction email alerts which will inform them when hands off flow restrictions are in force or lifted. 

Winter farm preparation blog 

Advice is available on the preparations farmers can take over the winter following this year dry weather on our latest blog. 

The National Farmers Union will continue to provide support and advice through its dry weather web page on its website. It plans to update its advice and guidance on preparedness for a dry winter and spring and this will include: 

• checking reservoir integrity and leaks  

• changes to agri-environment schemes that are affected by dry weather 

Farmers should take the earliest opportunity to refill irrigation reservoirs if conditions allow, to ensure that they increase their water resilience for next year. Farmers should be ready to take water during any high flow events to maximise the fill of on farm reservoirs.  

Farmers may struggle to deliver agri-environment schemes due to dry weather or a requirement to manage land differently to support grazing. The Rural Payments Agency has provided guidance to farmers on adjustments that could lead to agreement values for these schemes being amended.  

4.5 Long-term actions 

We are encouraging farmers to develop and join Water Abstractor Groups. The National Farmers Union and Regional Water Resources Groups are actively meeting with groups of farmers to support the formation of new groups. The UK Irrigation Association has a directory of existing Water Abstractor Groups and hosts a booklet which explains how they might support abstractors.  

The Environment Agency, funded by Defra, has also been progressing Local Resource Option Screening studies. Currently there are 33 studies looking at improving water resources resilience for groups of farmers. Examples include rainwater harvesting, high flow abstraction, re-cycled water and use of water from Internal Drainage Boards.