Guidance

DfT register of business critical models – November 2025

Updated 30 April 2026

A list of all DfTc business critical models held within the Department for Transport (DfT), as of November 2025.

The Macpherson Review of the quality assurance of government models classed a model as business critical where:

• the modelling drives essential financial and funding decisions
• the model is essential to the achievement of business plan actions and priorities
• errors could engender serious financial, legal, reputational damages or penalties

The table provides a list of the business critical models held and used within DfT in November 2025.

Model Number	Name	Description
1	Active Mode Appraisal Toolkit (AMAT)	AMAT quantifies the key impacts and estimates the benefit-cost ratio for walking and cycling interventions, using the assumptions and methods set out in TAG Unit A5.1 Active Mode Appraisal.
2	Aviation model	The model forecasts aviation passenger demand, air transport movements and carbon emissions. It can also output estimated user benefits attached to an airport capacity scheme.
3	Charge Point Demand Model	A model jointly developed with the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, designed to estimate the power supply implications of future electric car and light van uptake scenarios. The model also estimates the number of charge points that could be demanded
4	Cobalt	Software calculating the impact on accidents as part of an economic appraisal of a road scheme in line with transport analysis guidance.
5	Concessionary Travel Reimbursement Tool	The model provides travel concession authorities (TCAs) and bus operators with a tool to estimate concessionary reimbursement rates. It is also used by independent adjudicators acting on behalf of the Secretary of State for Transport in arbitrating disputes between TCAs and operators.
6	Cycling and Walking Investment Strategy (CWIS) model	The model estimates the number of additional cycling, walking, and walk to school stages generated by different levels of active travel investment, accounting for differences in the cost effectiveness of interventions by location.
7	Demand Driver Generator (DDG) network of models	This network of spreadsheet models produces a standardised set of socio-demographic and economic drivers for use in rail demand forecasting models.
8	Departmental Pay model	This model is used to cost the annual pay award for staff at delegated grades in the central department and its executive agencies.
9	DfT CTRL Model Master Sheet	Calculates cash and non-cash movements on financial instruments issued by CTRL Section 1 Finance plc
10	Dynamic Integrated Assignment and Demand Modelling (DIADEM)	A generic software package that enables practitioners to easily set up variable demand models in accordance with the advice provided in TAG. This tool provides a simple way to link highway assignment models to a variable demand model.
11	Discounted Cash Flow Model (DCFM)	DCFM is a discounted cash flow model regularly used across Rail Analysis, for use in business cases where it computes BCR, NPV and appraisal summary tables. DCFM is an appraisal tool to carry out cost benefit analysis, in line with TAG. It takes as input MOIRA value of time reports which summarise the user benefits associated with a rail scheme.
12	Electric Car Consumers model (ECCo)	The ECCo model is a consumer choice model which used to produce projections of ULEV (ultra low emission vehicle) costs and uptake.
13	General Lighthouse Fund Long-Term Forecast Model	The model produces a 10-year forecast of the General Lighthouse Fund cash reserves. It is used to predict the performance of the fund, sensitivity test the fund’s resilience to changes in external factors and achieve the department’s strategy of maintaining stability in light dues rates.
14	GLA Loan for Crossrail Model – Commitments 2 and 3	Interest and principal repayment model in spreadsheet format for tranches 2 and 3 of the GLA Loan. The objective is to understand: 1, when and how much to invoice to GLA or TfL in terms of principal and interest payments. 2, the impact on budgets for finance.
15	Greener Bus Model	The tool allows users to estimate the cost benefit ratio (CBR) of investment in different types of buses (e.g. electric or hydrogen) compared to the diesel equivalent. The model takes into consideration the different in upfront capital costs, infrastructure as well as operating costs and environmental benefits.
16	Highways Maintenance Block funding allocations model	The model is used to allocate annual highways maintenance funding to local highway authorities. The model uses an established formula that takes road length and the number of bridges and lighting columns in each local highway authority as its inputs.
17	HS2 landscape appraisal model	This model aims to estimate the monetised impact of landscape changes from large rail schemes.
18	Integrated Transport Fund (ITF) model	The model is used to allocate funding using 2 formulas, the Integrated Transport Block (ITB) and Local Transport Grant (LTG) formulas. The ITB model (a scaled approach) is a relatively simple calculator that uses a range of inputs to calculate ITB allocations. The ITB formula is used in the first year only (2025/26). The LTG formula is applied going forward, which allocates funding based on population (70%) and IMD (30%).
19	Maritime Emissions Model	The model estimates historical emissions from shipping and produces emissions forecasts under various scenarios to support policy development.
20	MOIRA (DfTc)	MOIRA is an industry standard model for analysing changes in timetables, allocate demand and monetise such impacts focusing train loadings and revenue allocations. The model is also often a core model of most analysis of revenue and demand.
21	MOIRA 2.2 (DfTc)	MOIRA2 was developed jointly between DfT and the rest of the rail industry, as an addition and improvement to current MOIRA model. This model is aimed at analysing timetable-related changes but also undertaking crowding calculation which MOIRA does not do.
22	National Transport Model (NTM) Version 2R	NTM is a department’s strategic transport analysis tool based on statistics and transport modelling algorithm. It supports the department’s policy developments and transport infrastructure investments by estimating the impacts of interventions on the regional and national road traffic.
23	National Transport Model version 5 (NTMv5)	NTMv5 is a model of travel demand and highway traffic in England. It is used to assess travel demand and highway traffic at a sub-national level.
24	PEDGE	PEDGE is a rail forecasting model used to calculate demand and revenue growth rates for station pairs using demand drivers (such as GDP, population, and employment) and their corresponding functional form (based on TAG and PDFH, usually an elasticity). These growth rates are then used in most allocation and crowding models.
25	PERFORM (PEriodic Revenue FORecasting Model)	Produces TOC-level revenue forecasts at periodic (monthly) frequency.
26	Property Management Model	The model is used to help inform property management decisions relating to properties acquired by the Secretary of State for Transport as a result of the HS2 programme. The model can also be adapted to inform decisions on any other property owned by the Secretary of State for Transport.
27	Road Carbon and Fuel Fleet (RoCaFF) model	Projects road transport fleet average emissions and fuel/energy consumption per km, alongside the split of mileage by electric, petrol or diesel vehicles.
28	Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO) model	The model is used to assess the impacts of an increase in the use of renewable fuels in surface transport under the RTFO, including the cost on suppliers and motorists and the benefits from reduced GHG emissions.
29	Simplified Greenhouse Gas Tool	A simple regression tool that estimates miles driven and greenhouse gas emissions. This is a meta tool that estimates (and is trained on) the NTM runs.
30	Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG) Data Book	The TAG data book contains all the values in DfT TAG to be used in transport modelling and appraisal applications. Note: it is more a spreadsheet of information than a model.
31	The National Trip End Modelling suite (NTEM)	A model used to input travel demand forecasts into the NTM and other transport models.
32	The Trip End Model Presentation Program (TEMPRO)	A software package that presents the NTEM data set in the public domain.
33	Transport Users Benefit Appraisal (TUBA)	TUBA takes transport model outputs and converts the cost and demand matrices into monetisable user benefits for use in appraisal.
34	UK Civil Aircraft Noise Contour Model (ANCON)	A model used for aviation noise mapping.
35	Values of travel time savings and reliability	This model is an implementation tool used to estimate the values of time to be used in appraisal. The model was developed as part of the value of time study with ITS Leeds in 2015.
36	Vehicle Emissions Carbon Tool (VECAT)	Tool is used to quantify road user carbon emissions for transport scheme appraisal. The Tool works on a link-by-link basis using the parameters and formulae from the DfT’s TAG and the TAG data book.
37	Vehicle Emissions Trading Schemes (VETS) CO2 Baseline Analysis Model	VETS CO2 baseline model calculates the CO2 emissions targets for vehicle manufacturers as set out in the VETS. The targets that the model produces will apply annually between 2024 and 2030.
38	Wider Impacts in Transport Appraisal (WITA)	WITA software allows analysts to estimate the wider economic impacts of transport schemes in line with methodologies set out in TAG.