Research and analysis

Child Poverty Strategy: Impact on low income poverty levels and children gaining in the UK: December 2025

Published 5 December 2025

Summary 

On 5 December 2025 the government published its Child Poverty Strategy. This publication provides an estimate of the combined impact on low income poverty levels, and the number of children gaining, from measures in the strategy which directly impact children’s measurable incomes.  

It is estimated that there will be 550,000 fewer children in relative low income after housing costs in the financial year ending (FYE) 2030 as a result of the Child Poverty Strategy, compared to baseline projections. 7.1 Million children will see their household incomes increase due to the strategy, including 1.4 million children in deep material poverty. 

Alongside measures to increase incomes, the Child Poverty Strategy also includes a range of activity to improve children’s lives through reducing essential costs and improving financial resilience and local support. These measures do not directly impact incomes and are not included in this analysis. However, they would be expected to further improve the lives of children and their living standards beyond the impacts reported here.

Introduction 

In July 2024, the Prime Minister announced the creation of a Ministerial Taskforce on Child Poverty, supported by a Child Poverty Unit in Cabinet Office, consisting of officials from across government. The role of the Taskforce was to oversee the development and delivery of an ambitious cross-government Child Poverty Strategy to reduce and alleviate child poverty.  

On 5 December 2025 the government published its Child Poverty Strategy. The aim of this UK-wide strategy is to improve children’s lives and life chances now and tackle the root causes of child poverty in the long term. The Strategy looks at levers across the key themes of increasing incomes, reducing essential costs, and better local support especially in the early years. It builds on the reform plans underway across government and work underway in Devolved Governments.

This publication provides an assessment of the cumulative impact on low income poverty levels, and the number of children gaining, from the main changes included in the strategy which impact families’ measurable incomes. Specifically: 

• removing the two-child limit so that families can receive the child element of Universal Credit for all children regardless of family size 

• expanding Free School Meals eligibility to all pupils in England with a parent receiving Universal Credit 

• providing funding to schools in England to deliver a free breakfast club for primary-aged children 

• increasing the amount provided through the Healthy Start scheme to £9.30 per week for children under one, £4.65 per week for children aged 1 to 4, and £4.65 each week of pregnancy from 10 weeks

• increase the eligibility for the Warm House Discount in England and Wales by removing the high cost to heat threshold

• reforming the Child Maintenance Service by removing Direct Pay

Alongside measures to increase incomes, the Child Poverty Strategy also includes a range of activity to improve children’s lives through reducing essential costs and improving financial resilience and services. Where these measures do not directly impact incomes in the short term, we have been unable to include them in this analysis. This includes measures such as spending on housing, childcare and parental employment. Many of these measures directly improve the lives of children and their living standards beyond the impacts reported here, including potentially reducing poverty in the longer term.

Methodology 

The Department for Work and Pensions’ Policy Simulation Model (PSM) is used to model the impact of policies on individuals and low income poverty levels. The PSM is a static microsimulation mode^{[footnote 1]} based on a snapshot of the UK population from the Family Resources Survey (FRS), currently for the financial years ending (FYE) 2022, 2023 and 2024. It uses caseload forecasts alongside benefit rules to simulate results such as poverty levels for each year, currently up to and including FYE 2031. Because the PSM is a static model it does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as changed work incentives due to reductions or increases in benefit rates, or an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming due to the increased amount.

To model the impact of policies, the PSM compares new policies to a baseline scenario, which assumes existing benefit rules, and estimates the impact of the policy change on poverty rates and incomes in the year in question. The analysis uses the most up to date model available, consistent with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) November 2025 forecasts.

As the poverty impacts presented are independent of the underlying trends in poverty, they are not an estimate of the total change in poverty over time. Instead, they show the difference between our expectations of the number of children in poverty in a given year with and without the measures listed above.

Separately, we have published an estimate of the total change in child poverty trends over the Parliament Low income poverty projections for children, FYE 2025 to FYE 2030, November 2025 - GOV.UK. These estimates take into account everything that affects poverty, including wider economic factors like wage growth and inflation and measure how poverty in the future compares to poverty now. These will be updated to account for the impact of Budget 2025 measures and updated economic and caseload forecasts.

This analysis uses equivalised incomes both before (BHC) and after housing costs (AHC). Equivalised incomes are calculated at the household level. This means that individuals not directly affected by the policy can lose or gain as a result of being in the same household as someone who is impacted.

Differences in the BHC and AHC poverty impacts are seen because poverty impacts are affected by where individuals sit on the income distribution. For example, individuals in receipt of housing support will be in a different place in the distribution BHC than AHC, as their housing support is treated as income before housing costs purposes, but is offset against housing costs after housing costs are taken into account.  

Estimates are rounded to the nearest 50,000 individuals and the nearest 0.1 percentage point due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach. 

Poverty analysis is presented for five measures of poverty: both relative and absolute low income, both before and after housing costs, and deep material poverty.

Further information on the methodology behind the low income measures can be found in How low income is measured in households below average income statistics - GOV.UK and Household below average income series: quality and methodology information report FYE 2024 - GOV.UK.

This publication also includes estimates of the number of children living in households that will see incomes increase as a result of the impacted measures, including whether they are in deep material poverty.

Because deep material poverty is impacted by a range of un-modellable factors, such as families’ broader capabilities, support networks and financial resilience, it is not possible to model reductions in deep material poverty as a result of the strategy. Instead, we have provided analysis on number of children in deep material poverty who will gain from the strategy, based on whether the household was reported to be in deep material poverty in the original FRS data. Because the PSM uses three years of pooled data, but the deep poverty metric is only available for the most recent year, we have created a proxy indicator based on the previous suite of material deprivation question for earlier years. Further information on how deep material poverty is measured is available at Deep Material Poverty: Financial Year Ending 2024 - GOV.UK.

Poverty impacts  

It is estimated that there will be 750,000 fewer individuals in relative low income after housing costs in the final year of parliament (FYE 2030) as a result of the modelled measures in the strategy, compared to baseline projections. This includes 550,000 children and 250,000 working age individuals. Figures do not sum due to rounding.

The impact on the numbers in other measures of low income poverty are in tables 2 to 4 of this page.

Table 1: Impact of the Child Poverty Strategy on projected numbers and proportions of people in relative low income after housing costs (UK)

Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline	FYE 2027	FYE 2028	FYE 2029	FYE 2030	FYE 2031
Children: Number	-400,000	-450,000	-550,000	-550,000	-550,000
Children: %pt	-2.6%	-3.1%	-3.9%	-4.0%	-3.8%
Working age adults: Number	-150,000	-200,000	-250,000	-250,000	-200,000
Working age adults: %pt	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.5%
Individuals: Number	-550,000	-600,000	-750,000	-750,000	-700,000
Individuals: %pt	-0.8%	-0.9%	-1.1%	-1.1%	-1.0%

Table 2: Impact of the Child Poverty Strategy on projected numbers and proportions of people in relative low income before housing costs (UK)

Change in relative low income BHC compared to baseline	FYE 2027	FYE 2028	FYE 2029	FYE 2030	FYE 2031
Children: Number	-300,000	-350,000	-350,000	-350,000	-400,000
Children: %pt	-1.9%	-2.4%	-2.6%	-2.5%	-2.7%
Working age adults: Number	-100,000	-150,000	-150,000	-150,000	-150,000
Working age adults: %pt	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.4%
Individuals: Number	-350,000	-450,000	-500,000	-500,000	-500,000
Individuals: %pt	-0.5%	-0.7%	-0.7%	-0.7%	-0.7%

Table 3: Impact of the Child Poverty Strategy on projected numbers and proportions of people in absolute low income after housing costs (UK)

Change in absolute low income AHC compared to baseline	FYE 2027	FYE 2028	FYE 2029	FYE 2030	FYE 2031
Children: Number	-300,000	-350,000	-350,000	-350,000	-350,000
Children: %pt	-2.1%	-2.3%	-2.4%	-2.5%	-2.6%
Working age adults: Number	-150,000	-150,000	-150,000	-150,000	-150,000
Working age adults: %pt	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.4%
Individuals: Number	-450,000	-500,000	-500,000	-550,000	-500,000
Individuals: %pt	-0.7%	-0.7%	-0.7%	-0.7%	-0.7%

Table 4: Impact of the Child Poverty Strategy on projected numbers and proportions of people in absolute low income before housing costs (UK)

Change in absolute low income BHC compared to baseline	FYE 2027	FYE 2028	FYE 2029	FYE 2030	FYE 2031
Children: Number	-200,000	-250,000	-250,000	-300,000	-250,000
Children: %pt	-1.4%	-1.7%	-1.8%	-2.0%	-1.9%
Working age adults: Number	-100,000	-100,000	-150,000	-150,000	-150,000
Working age adults: %pt	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Individuals: Number	-300,000	-350,000	-400,000	-450,000	-400,000
Individuals: %pt	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.6%	-0.6%	-0.6%

Gainers  

It is estimated that 7.1 million children will live in households that see an increase in income as a result of the modelled measures in the final year of parliament (FYE 2030). Of these, 1.4 million are in households reporting deep material poverty in the underlying data.

Table 5: Gainers from the Child Poverty Strategy in FYE 2030 (UK)

Children in gaining households	Number of children
Children: all	7.1 million
Children: in deep material poverty	1.4 million

Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Annex: Impact of individual measures 

To support public understanding of the proposed changes and promote transparency, the tables below include the individual impacts of the core elements of the Child Poverty Strategy. These have been calculated independently of any other changes and are provided for information only. They should not be used to understand the overall impact of the package. 

The individual poverty impacts do not necessarily sum to the total impact of the Strategy due to rounding and the interactions between measures which mean that some people are affected by more than one measure. 

A: Removal of the two-child limit on benefit entitlement within Universal Credit 

Poverty impacts  

The poverty impacts of removing the two-child limit on benefit entitlement within Universal Credit have previously been published but included here for completeness. They can be found in Poverty impacts of social security changes at Budget 2025 - GOV.UK.

It is estimated that there will be 600,000 fewer individuals in relative low income after housing costs in the final year of parliament (FYE 2030) as a result of the removal of the two-child limit within Universal Credit, compared to baseline projections. This includes 450,000 children and 150,000 working age individuals.

The impact on the numbers in other measures of low income poverty are in tables 2 to 4 of this page.  

Table A1: Impact of the removal of the two-child limit on projected numbers and proportions of people in relative low income after housing costs (UK)

Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline	FYE 2027	FYE 2028	FYE 2029	FYE 2030	FYE 2031
Children: Number	-300,000	-350,000	-450,000	-450,000	-450,000
Children: %pt	-2.2%	-2.6%	-3.2%	-3.2%	-3.1%
Working age adults: Number	-100,000	-150,000	-150,000	-150,000	-150,000
Working age adults: %pt	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.3%
Individuals: Number	-400,000	-500,000	-600,000	-600,000	-550,000
Individuals: %pt	-0.6%	-0.7%	-0.9%	-0.8%	-0.8%

Table A2: Impact of the removal of the two-child limit on projected numbers and proportions of people in relative low income before housing costs (UK) 

Change in relative low income BHC compared to baseline	FYE 2027	FYE 2028	FYE 2029	FYE 2030	FYE 2031
Children: Number	-250,000	-300,000	-300,000	-300,000	-300,000
Children: %pt	-1.7%	-1.9%	-2.1%	-2.1%	-2.2%
Working age adults: Number	-50,000	-100,000	-100,000	-50,000	-100,000
Working age adults: %pt	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Individuals: Number	-300,000	-350,000	-400,000	-350,000	-400,000
Individuals: %pt	-0.4%	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.5%

Table A3: Impact of the removal of the two-child limit on projected numbers and proportions of people in absolute low income after housing costs (UK) 

Change in absolute low income AHC compared to baseline	FYE 2027	FYE 2028	FYE 2029	FYE 2030	FYE 2031
Children: Number	-250,000	-250,000	-250,000	-250,000	-250,000
Children: %pt	-1.8%	-1.8%	-1.7%	-1.8%	-1.9%
Working age adults: Number	-100,000	-100,000	-100,000	-100,000	-100,000
Working age adults: %pt	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
Individuals: Number	-350,000	-350,000	-350,000	-350,000	-350,000
Individuals: %pt	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.5%

Table A4: Impact of the removal of the two-child limit on projected numbers and proportions of people in absolute low income before housing costs (UK) 

Change in absolute low income BHC compared to baseline	FYE 2027	FYE 2028	FYE 2029	FYE 2030	FYE 2031
Children: Number	-200,000	-200,000	-200,000	-250,000	-250,000
Children: %pt	-1.4%	-1.4%	-1.5%	-1.7%	-1.7%
Working age adults: Number	-100,000	-100,000	-100,000	-100,000	-100,000
Working age adults: %pt	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Individuals: Number	-300,000	-300,000	-300,000	-350,000	-350,000
Individuals: %pt	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.5%	-0.5%

Gainers

It is estimated that 2 million children will live in households that see an increase in income as a result of the removal of the two-child limit within Universal Credit in the final year of parliament (FYE 2030). Of these, 600,000 are in households reporting deep material poverty in the underlying data.

Table A5: Gainers from the removal of the two-child limit in FYE 2030, UK 

Children in gaining households	Number of children
Children: all	2.0 million
Children: in deep material poverty	0.6 million

Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding.

B: Extension of free school meal entitlement in England to all pupils in receipt of Universal Credit 

Poverty impacts  

The poverty impacts of extending free school meals have previously been published in the summer but have been updated here using the latest model. The previous estimates of poverty impacts can be found here: Free School Meals expansion - Impact on poverty levels - GOV.UK. 

It is estimated that there will be 100,000 fewer individuals in relative low income after housing costs in the final year of parliament (FYE 2030) as a result of the extension of free school meal entitlement in England to all pupils in receipt of Universal Credit, compared to baseline projections. This includes 100,000 children and 50,000 working age individuals. Figures may not sum due to rounding.

The impact on the numbers in other measures of low income poverty are in tables 2 to 4 on this page.  

Table B1: Impact of the extension of free school meal entitlement in England to all pupils in receipt of Universal Credit on projected numbers and proportions of people in relative low income after housing costs (UK)

Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline	FYE 2027	FYE 2028	FYE 2029	FYE 2030	FYE 2031
Children: Number	-50,000	-100,000	-100,000	-100,000	-50,000
Children: %pt	-0.4%	-0.6%	-0.8%	-0.6%	-0.5%
Working age adults: Number	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000
Working age adults: %pt	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Individuals: Number	-100,000	-150,000	-150,000	-100,000	-100,000
Individuals: %pt	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.1%

Table B2: Impact of the extension of free school meal entitlement in England to all pupils in receipt of Universal Credit on projected numbers and proportions of people in relative low income before housing costs (UK) 

Change in relative low income BHC compared to baseline	FYE 2027	FYE 2028	FYE 2029	FYE 2030	FYE 2031
Children: Number	<-25,000	-100,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000
Children: %pt	-0.1%	-0.6%	-0.5%	-0.4%	-0.5%
Working age adults: Number	<-25,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000
Working age adults: %pt	0.0%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Individuals: Number	<-25,000	-100,000	-100,000	-100,000	-100,000
Individuals: %pt	0.0%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.2%

Table B3: Impact of the extension of free school meal entitlement in England to all pupils in receipt of Universal Credit on projected numbers and proportions of people in absolute low income after housing costs (UK) 

Change in absolute low income AHC compared to baseline	FYE 2027	FYE 2028	FYE 2029	FYE 2030	FYE 2031
Children: Number	-50,000	-50,000	-100,000	-100,000	-50,000
Children: %pt	-0.4%	-0.5%	-0.6%	-0.5%	-0.5%
Working age adults: Number	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000
Working age adults: %pt	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Individuals: Number	-100,000	-100,000	-150,000	-100,000	-100,000
Individuals: %pt	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%

Table B4: Impact of the extension of free school meal entitlement in England to all pupils in receipt of Universal Credit on projected numbers and proportions of people in absolute low income before housing costs (UK ) 

Change in absolute low income BHC compared to baseline	FYE 2027	FYE 2028	FYE 2029	FYE 2030	FYE 2031
Children: Number	<-25,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000
Children: %pt	0.0%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.2%
Working age adults: Number	<-25,000	<-25,000	<-25,000	<-25,000	<-25,000
Working age adults: %pt	0.0%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.0%
Individuals: Number	<-25,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000
Individuals: %pt	0.0%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%

Gainers  

It is estimated that 1.9 million children will live in households that see an increase in income as a result of the extension of free school meal entitlement in England to all pupils in receipt of Universal Credit in the final year of parliament (FYE 2030). Of these, 400,000 are in households reporting deep material poverty in the underlying data.

These estimates of children gaining will vary from the estimates published by the Department for Education. This is because their estimates are based on how many more children will get a meal in each year through to the final year of parliament (FYE 2030) compared to the latest published statistics (FYE 2024) at the time. This means it estimates how many more children will get a free school meal in the future compared to the past.

In contrast, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) estimates are based on children living in households that will see an increase in their household income due to the extension of free school meals. This means that all children in the household gain including those already receiving free school meals or at a pre-school age. It also compares how many more children would have received a free school meal in future years compared to the number in the same year without the policy change. This includes accounting for the impact of the phase out of transitional protection for free school meals.

Table B5: Gainers from the extension of free school meal entitlement in England to all pupils in receipt of Universal Credit in FYE 2030, UK 

Children in gaining households	Number of children
Children: all	1.9 million
Children: in deep material poverty	0.4 million

Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding.

C: Remaining measures: Breakfast clubs, Healthy Start, Warm Home Discount and abolition of Direct Pay in child maintenance 

Poverty impacts are rounded to the nearest 50,000 due to uncertainties within the data. This can make it challenging to provide estimates for measures which can materially impact the lives of smaller sub-groups of children, or which have smaller impacts on larger numbers of children. To ensure that these impacts are not disregarded we have modelled the collective impact of the following measures:  

• Providing funding to schools in England to deliver a free breakfast club for primary-aged children. 

• Increasing the amount provided through the Healthy Start scheme to £9.30 per week for children under one, £4.65 per week for children aged 1 to 4, and £4.65 each week of pregnancy from 10 weeks. 

• Increase the eligibility for the Warm House Discount in England and Wales by removing the high cost to heat threshold.  

• Reforming the Child Maintenance Service by removing Direct Pay.

Poverty impacts  

It is estimated that there will be 50,000 fewer individuals in relative low income after housing costs in the final year of parliament (FYE 2030) as a result of the changes to breakfast clubs, Healthy Start, Warm Home Discount and the abolition of Direct Pay in child maintenance, compared to baseline projections. This includes 50,000 children and 50,000 working age individuals. Figures may not sum due to rounding.

The impact on the numbers in other measures of low income poverty are in tables 2 to 4 below.  

Table C1: Impact of the changes to breakfast clubs, Healthy Start, Warm Home Discount and the abolition of Direct Pay in child maintenance on projected numbers and proportions of people in relative low income after housing costs (UK)

Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline	FYE 2027	FYE 2028	FYE 2029	FYE 2030	FYE 2031
Children: Number	<-25,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000
Children: %pt	-0.1%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Working age adults: Number	<-25,000	<-25,000	<-25,000	-50,000	-50,000
Working age adults: %pt	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Individuals: Number	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000	-100,000
Individuals: %pt	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%

Table C2: Impact of the changes to breakfast clubs, Healthy Start, Warm home Discount and the abolition of Direct Pay in child maintenance on projected numbers and proportions of people in relative low income before housing costs (UK)

Change in relative low income BHC compared to baseline	FYE 2027	FYE 2028	FYE 2029	FYE 2030	FYE 2031
Children: Number	<-25,000	<-25,000	<-25,000	<-25,000	-50,000
Children: %pt	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Working age adults: Number	-50,000	<-25,000	<-25,000	<-25,000	-50,000
Working age adults: %pt	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.1%
Individuals: Number	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000	-100,000
Individuals: %pt	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.1%

Table C3: Impact of the changes to breakfast clubs, Healthy Start, Warm Home Discount and the abolition of Direct Pay in child maintenance on projected numbers and proportions of people in absolute low income after housing costs (UK)

Change in absolute low income AHC compared to baseline	FYE 2027	FYE 2028	FYE 2029	FYE 2030	FYE 2031
Children: Number	<-25,000	<-25,000	<-25,000	<-25,000	<-25,000
Children: %pt	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Working age adults: Number	<-25,000	<-25,000	<-25,000	-50,000	<-25,000
Working age adults: %pt	0.0%	0.0%	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.0%
Individuals: Number	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000
Individuals: %pt	0.0%	0.0%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%

Table C4: Impact of the changes to breakfast clubs, Healthy Start, Warm Home Discount and the abolition of Direct Pay in child maintenance on projected numbers and proportions of people in absolute low income before housing costs (UK )

Change in absolute low income BHC compared to baseline	FYE 2027	FYE 2028	FYE 2029	FYE 2030	FYE 2031
Children: Number	<-25,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000
Children: %pt	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Working age adults: Number	<-25,000	<-25,000	-50,000	<-25,000	-50,000
Working age adults: %pt	-0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Individuals: Number	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000	-50,000
Individuals: %pt	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%

Gainers  

It is estimated that 6.6 million children will live in households that see an increase in income as a result of the changes to breakfast clubs, Healthy Start, Warm Home Discount and the abolition of Direct Pay in child maintenance in the final year of parliament (FYE 2030). Of these, 1.3 million are in households reporting deep material poverty in the underlying data.

Table A5: Gainers from the changes to breakfast clubs, Healthy Start, Warm Home Discount and the abolition of Direct Pay in child maintenance in FYE 2030, UK 

Children in gaining households	Number of children
Children: all	6.6 million
Children: in deep material poverty	1.3 million

Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Statement of compliance with the Code of Practice for statistics 

The Code of Practice for Statistics (the Code) is built around 3 main concepts, or pillars:  

• trustworthiness – is about having confidence in the people and organisations that publish statistics  

• quality – is about using data and methods that produce statistics   

• value – is about publishing statistics that support society’s needs  

The following explains how we have applied the pillars of the Code in a proportionate way.

Trustworthiness 

The figures were created to support Government decision making and understand the impact of policies on household incomes and individuals in low income. They are being published to give equal access to all those with an interest in them. 

Quality 

The data that underpins this information is taken from DWP’s Policy Simulation Model which includes caseload forecasts taken from DWP and HMRC data. The analysis uses the most up to date model available consistent with the OBR November 2025 forecasts at the time of the original announcement.

The information used refers to individuals who will be affected by the change to the proposed social security measures, as above. 

Value 

Releasing this information serves the public interest in the poverty impacts of the Child Poverty Strategy. The figures also help reduce the administrative burden of answering Parliamentary questions, Freedom of Information requests and other forms of ad hoc enquiry and serves public.

Further information and feedback 

Contact DWP Press Office if you have any questions or feedback.

1. A static microsimulation model is a modelling approach which uses micro-level observations, in this case from survey data, to simulate other states of the world including future states. ↩