Corporate report

Business Critical Models in the Department for Work and Pensions

Published 2 June 2026

This publication lists the business critical models held by the Department for Work and Pensions, which play a key role in supporting departmental decision‑making and service delivery.

This list is up to date as of June 2026.

Model Name	Model Description
Restart Scheme financial forecast model	Used to support the forecast of future spend by the department on the Restart Scheme employment programme.
Functional Assessment Service (FAS) Payment Control model	Recording and reporting of actual costs and calculation of variance to target costs and fees for the FAS (Health Assessments, within Contract Management and Partner Delivery Directorate, part of Finance Group).
National Insurance Fund (NIF) model	The NIF is administered by HMRC. This model calculates the value of the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) recharge to HMRC for its administration of NIF benefits.
Access to Work expenditure forecasting model	Forecasts benefit expenditure and caseload for the Access to Work grant expenditure scheme.
Access to Work workload forecast model	Forecasts workload for Access to Work.
Attendance Allowance expenditure forecasting model	Forecasts benefit expenditure and caseload for Attendance Allowance used in fiscal events.
Attendance Allowance workload forecasting model	Forecasts workload for Attendance Allowance.
Carer’s Allowance expenditure forecasting model	Forecasts benefit expenditure and caseload for Carer’s Allowance used in fiscal events.
Carer’s Allowance workload forecasting model	Forecasts workload for Carer’s Allowance.
Disability Living Allowance (DLA) child expenditure forecasting model	Forecasts benefit expenditure and caseload for DLA child used in fiscal events.
DLA child workload forecasting model	Forecasts workload for DLA child.
Health Transformation Cost models	Planning, forecasting and policy simulation for projects within the Health Transformation Programme.
Industrial injuries benefits expenditure forecasting model	Forecasts caseloads and benefit expenditure for industrial injuries benefits used in fiscal events.
Industrial injuries benefits workload forecasting model	Forecasts workload for industrial injuries benefits.
Personal Independence Payment (PIP) expenditure forecasting model	Forecasts benefit expenditure and caseload for PIP used in fiscal events.
PIP legal costing model	An approach used to estimate Annually Managed Expenditure costs associated with PIP Legal Changes (including changes to Business as Usual and Legal Entitlement and Administrative Practices).
PIP Policy Costings model	An approach used to estimate Annually Managed Expenditure costs associated with PIP policy changes (including some delivery changes).
PIP workload forecasting model	Forecasts workload for PIP.
Work Capability Assessment department led reassessments costing model	Model estimating the annually managed expenditure and caseload impacts of the ‘Work Capability Assessments: Restart reassessments from April 2026’ policy announced by His Majesty’s Treasury at Spring Statement 2025 and updated at Autumn Budget 2025.
Activity Based Management model	Provide regular reporting of Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) staff and productivity by operational activity, and costs to the department split by delivery output.
Annually Managed Expenditure (AME) Forecast Collation models (Benefit Diagnostics, AME Summary, Audit Trail)	Collate and iterate the updated AME forecast for each benefit at each fiscal event. The models include gross expenditure forecasts provided by forecasting teams, from their respective forecasting models; gross-to-net figures provided by Benefit Accounting; and policy costing figures provided by the Cross-Cutting Economics team.
Demand Resource Analytical model for Child Maintenance Service	To provide forecasts of the FTE staff required for operational delivery and the associated costs.
Demand Resource Analytical model for Decision Making	To provide forecasts of the FTE staff required for operational delivery and the associated costs.
Demand Resource Analytical model for Disability Services	To provide forecasts of the FTE staff required for operational delivery and the associated costs.
Demand Resource Analytical model for Dispute Resolution Services	To provide forecasts of the FTE staff required for operational delivery and the associated costs.
Demand Resource Analytical model for NINO (National Insurance number)	To provide forecasts of the FTE staff required for operational delivery and the associated costs.
Demand Resource Analytical model for Retirement Services	To provide forecasts of the FTE staff required for operational delivery and the associated costs.
Demand Resource Analytical model for Universal Credit Case Review	To provide forecasts of the FTE staff required for operational delivery and the associated costs.
Demand Resource Analytical model for Universal Credit Jobcentre	To provide forecasts of the FTE staff required for operational delivery and the associated costs.
Demand Resource Analytical model for Universal Credit Service Centre	To provide forecasts of the FTE staff required for operational delivery and the associated costs.
Demand Resource Analytical model for Working Age	To provide forecasts of the FTE staff required for operational delivery and the associated costs.
In-year Monitoring of Benefit Expenditure	The main purpose of the model is to show current monthly outturn along with the latest forecast produced by forecasters and compare to the Fiscal Events and Main Estimate and Supplementary Estimate.
Northern Ireland Audit Trail	Forecasts Annually Managed Expenditure in Northern Ireland for each benefit, using inputs such as expenditure, caseloads, and population projections.
Ready Reckoner	Compares the changes in economic assumption parameters between fiscal events, and shows how these changes will impact annually managed forecast expenditure.
Universal Credit Social Cost and Benefit Analysis model	Excel-based model that can be used to estimate the costs and benefits of moving Universal Credit claimants from unemployment (or low paid employment) into work (or higher paid work).
Welfare Cap Assessment Tool	Forecasts annually managed welfare expenditure (adjusted for inflation, headroom against the cap and headroom against the cap plus margin), using expenditure forecasts, elasticities, and economic assumptions.
Annually Managed Expenditure Savings forecasting model for Universal Credit Continuous Improvement Activities	Forecast savings due to continuous improvement programme activities on Universal Credit.
Counter Fraud, Compliance and Debt (CFCD) Costing model	A deterministic stock-and-flow-type model to forecast work processed in Counter Fraud and Compliance operational activities and Annually Managed Expenditure (AME) savings realised from this. Used at fiscal events (for example in Policy Costing Notes) to bid for funding or resource in CFCD operations.
CFCD optimal deployment	Calculates optimal deployment of staff for Counter Fraud and Compliance staff across functions, given budgetary constraints.
Debt Gross to Net model	Forecast of New Overpayments Identified and Write Offs for DWP benefits.
Debt Management Demand model	Resourcing model for the Debt Management organisation.
Eligibility Verification Measure Savings model	Model the expected monetary savings generated through the Eligibility Verification Measure.
Universal Credit Annually Managed Expenditure adjustment for Monetary Value for Fraud and Error	Impact of expected changes to the level of overpayments in Universal Credit on the Department’s Universal Credit expenditure forecast.
Universal Credit Targeted Case Review Annually Managed Expenditure Savings forecasting model	Forecasts the savings that we expect to be achieved by the Targeted Case Review programme on Universal Credit.
Wider Controls Metric	Estimates the savings to the taxpayer from the Department’s activities that prevent overpayments from occurring or that detect overpayments that have already occurred.
Departmental Resource Allocation model	The Departments tool for controlling the internal allocation of funds as agreed with His Majesty’s Treasury, through upload to Hyperion.
Accessibility, Disability and Disputes Demand model	Provides a consolidated, costed view of the strategic demand requirements for the directorate for a five-year period.
Child Maintenance Services Demand model	Provides a consolidated, costed view of the strategic demand requirements for the directorate for a five-year period.
Counter Fraud, Compliance and Debt Demand model	Provides a consolidated, costed view of the strategic demand requirements for the directorate for a five-year period.
Data transformation forecast model	Detailed costing model used for financial forecasts and business cases.
Debt Recovery forecast model	Detailed costing model used for financial forecasts and business cases.
Demand Consolidation model	Provides a consolidated, costed view of the strategic demand requirements for Service Delivery for a five-year period.
DWP Service and Fraud Director General Demand model	Provides a consolidated, costed view of the strategic demand requirements for the directorate for a five-year period.
Entry, Search and Seizure forecast model	Detailed costing model used for financial forecasts and business cases.
Estates Projects Business Case model	Calculates the required investment and/or lease liability (in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards) for Estates Projects and therefore determining the project’s financial or funding requirements.
Eligibility Verification Programme forecast model	Detailed costing model used for financial forecasts and business cases.
Fraud, Error and Debt Bill Programme and Delivery Demand model	Provides a consolidated, costed view of the strategic demand requirements for the directorate for a five-year period.
Future Debt Service forecast model	Detailed costing model used for financial forecasts and business cases.
Health Transformation Project Demand model	Provides a consolidated, costed view of the strategic demand requirements for the directorate for a five-year period.
Info Gather forecast model	Detailed costing model used for financial forecasts and business cases.
Jobs and Career Service Operations Director General Demand model	Provides a consolidated, costed view of the strategic demand requirements for the directorate for a five-year period.
Operations Hub Demand model	Provides a consolidated, costed view of the strategic demand requirements for the directorate for a five-year period.
Retirement Services Demand model	Provides a consolidated, costed view of the strategic demand requirements for the directorate for a five-year period.
Scottish Devolution Agency Agreements Calculator	Utilises Departmental Activity-based management data to create a benefit account for each of the individual devolved benefits. This calculates the Full Economic Cost of the service provided to the Scottish Government after the transfer of legal and executive competence and forms the basis of recharging.
Service Modernisation Programme Business Case Finance model	Captures the various cost strands of the Programme and brigading this into a forecast summary by year. Additionally, this model is used for the base data for discounted cash flow / net present value for both Programme and Project business cases.
Universal Credit Operations Demand model	Provides a consolidated, costed view of the strategic demand requirements for the directorate for a five-year period.
Workplace Transformation Programme Business Case model	In-house workbook used to inform the financial modelling for the Workplace Transformation Programme Business Case.
Crisis and Resilience Fund Housing Payment local authority allocations for 2028 to 2029	Calculates housing payment funding allocations for the Crisis and Resilience Fund for each Local Authority in England and for Discretionary Housing Payment allocations in Wales in 2028 to 2029.
Crisis and Resilience Fund: core Local Authority allocations from financial year ending 2027 to financial year ending 2029	Calculates core funding allocations for the Crisis and Resilience Fund for each Upper Tier Local Authority in England from from financial year ending 2027 to financial year ending 2029.
Discretionary Housing Payment (DHP) Admin Allocations for the financial year ending 2026	Allocates DHP admin allocations to Local Authorities for the financial year ending 2026.
Housing Benefit (HB) Admin Subsidy	To distribute funds for HB Admin Subsidy across Local Authorities.
Pension Credit and pensioner HB joined-up service	Estimates existing running costs for pensioner HB and Pension Credit, layers in efficiency assumptions for a joined-up service, estimates take-up increases, and the societal impact of the increased caseload and feeds into the business case cycle. For budget purposes, for example, Autumn Budget 2025, we applied the net impact of a previous set of assumptions centred around a centralisation model which were reversed - alongside new non-centralised assumptions for a ‘joined-up service’.
Child Maintenance Liability model	An analytical model that simulates and compares child maintenance liabilities under both current and alternative policy scenarios.
Cost of Children	Applies an actual spend approach to estimate the amount of household spending attributable to children and expresses it as a proportion of income. It is based on data from the UK Living Costs and Food Survey.
Housing Benefit Award Accuracy (HBAA) Return on Investment model	Calculates the financial return from departmental investment in the HBAA initiative - both including and excluding the impact of identified underpayments.
Attendance Allowance (AA) Online Service Modernisation model	AA Online is a project in the wider Service Modernisation Programme. The purpose of AA Online is to provide a streamlined, user-centred digital channel for Attendance Allowance claims, reducing reliance on lengthy paper forms and improving accessibility for eligible customers. The AA Online model is used by analysts to estimate impacts on FTE and Department Expenditure Limits (DEL) of the AA Online channel.
Care Cluster Service Modernisation model	The Care Cluster is a project in the wider Service Modernisation Programme. The Care Cluster is a grouping of benefits and services designed to streamline and modernise support for customers who require care-related benefits. The Care Cluster model is used by analysts to estimate impacts on FTE and DEL of the rollout of the Care Cluster.
Central Database	Processes Supply data for input into Monthly Supply Forecasting for Service Delivery. The model also contains Demand forecasts to allow users to compare against Supply.
Child Maintenance Service Modernisation model	Child Maintenance Service Modernisation is a project in the wider Service Modernisation Programme. The Child Maintenance model is used by analysts to estimate impacts on FTE and DEL of Child Maintenance Service Modernisation.
Child Maintenance Service Workload forecasting model	Granular forecasts of expected volume of activity across operational service lines for the Child Maintenance Service.
Colleague View Service Modernisation model	Colleague View is a project in the wider Service Modernisation Programme. Colleague View is a digital platform designed to give DWP operational agents a single, holistic view of a customer’s information across multiple benefit lines. Under current plans it will be applied to around a dozen benefits. The Colleague View model is used by analysts to estimate impacts on FTE and DEL of the Colleague View project.
Conversational Platform Service Modernisation model	Conversational Platform is a project in the wider Service Modernisation Programme. It is designed to modernise telephony services by introducing an automated, speech-driven experience that uses a Virtual Agent to understand customer intent and route calls appropriately. The Conversational Platform model is used by analysts to estimate impacts on FTE and DEL of the Conversational Platform.
Customer Account Service Modernisation model	Customer Account is a project in the wider Service Modernisation Programme. Customer Account is a new digital service allowing customers to view and manage their DWP benefit information and access DWP services. Under current plans it will be applied to around a dozen benefits. The Customer Account model is used by analysts to estimate impacts on FTE and DEL of the Customer Account project.
DLA Child Service Modernisation model	DLA Child Service Modernisation is a project in the wider Service Modernisation Programme. The main scope of the specific project is to deliver automatic registration of new claims for DLA Child. The DLA Child model is used by analysts to estimate impacts on FTE and DEL of this change. There is a wider suite of modernisation proposals for DLA Child which are being developed and delivered as part of the Care Cluster. More details of the modelling for these proposals can be found in the Business Critical Model for the Care Cluster Modernisation project.
Existing Backlogs	Provide estimates of FTE staff needed to clear declared existing backlogs across Service Delivery and the associated costs.
Later Life Service Modernisation model	Later Life is a project in the wider Service Modernisation Programme. The Later Life model is used by analysts to estimate impacts on FTE and DEL of Later Life Modernisation.
Maternity Allowance Service Modernisation model	Maternity Allowance Service Modernisation is a project in the wider Service Modernisation Programme. The project will deliver online channels for claimants, automation of back-end processes, and data links with other government departments. The Maternity Allowance model is used by analysts to estimate impacts on FTE and DEL of Maternity Allowance Modernisation.
Modernising Notifications Service Modernisation model	Modernising Notifications is a project in the wider Service Modernisation Programme.  The purpose of the project is to reduce DWP expenditure in print, postage, and movement costs by reducing the volume of letters and introducing digital-first communication channels and self-service options. It will lead to lower DEL costs and will reduce DWP’s environmental impact by cutting CO₂ emissions from postal services.
New-Style Benefits Modernisation (NSBM) model	The NSBM project’s strategic intent is to provide a modern, simple, and sustainable New-Style service to enable the efficient administration of New Style Benefits for all claimants and colleagues by 2029. The NSBM model is used by analysts to estimate its impacts on FTE and DEL.
Productivity Resource Gap Estimate model	Provides estimates of the number of FTE staff needed to clear potential backlogs due to only the productivity gap across Service Delivery and the associated costs.
Service Delivery Supply model	Produces DWP’s single view of staffing supply by calculating a 3-year Service Delivery Supply Forecast for financial and resource planning and reporting purposes.
Supply Profile scenario tool	Provides options to optimise service delivery resource planning within annual funding allocation based on demand and supply forecasts.
Universal Credit Subnational Demand model	Models regional split of national demand to working age services including Universal Credit and legacy benefits to site level.
Visiting Service Workload Forecast	Forecasts the workload for the Visiting Service for the next 5 financial years.
Home Responsibilities Protection (HRP) Annually Managed Expenditure estimates	To calculate the cost of correcting any underpayment where HRP is missing in the State Pension.
PenPac	Produces costings of changes to Automatic Enrolment policy.
Pensim3	Pensim3 takes a sample of people in 2018 and projects their work and pension outcomes to 2100. The model is underpinned by a series of assumptions about work, pensions and demography which can be altered by the user. The model is used to examine pensioner outcomes under various assumptions.
Pensioner Benefit forecasting model (PENFORM)	Forecasting Pension Age Benefit caseloads and Expenditure.
State Pension and Pension Credit Expenditure forecasting model	Forecasts the expenditure and caseload for State Pension and Pension Credit over a 5-year timeframe.
State Pension and Pension Credit Long-Term forecasting model	Forecasts the expenditure and caseload for State Pension and Pension Credit over a 50-year timeframe.
State Pension and Pension Credit Workload forecasting model	Produces 5-year forecasts of the volume of work, such as processing new claims, to be carried out by DWP staff in delivering State Pension and Pension Credit.
Uprating and State Pension Age model	Produces estimates for long-term State Pension expenditure for alternative State Pension uprating mechanisms and alternative State Pension age timetables compared to baseline expenditure produced for the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report.
Pay and Reward Costing model	The pay model is used primarily for the annual DWP Delegated Pay award. This is an excel based model using inputs from recognised data sources. The outputs are used in pay award planning and inform pay award negotiations, Executive Team, Shared Services Connected Limited and Gender Pay Gap.
Jobcentre Model Location Strategy 2025 to 2028	Calculates the financial implications of the Department’s estates strategy.
Service and Support Centre Model Location Strategy 2025 to 2028	Calculates the financial implications of the Department’s estates strategy.
Workplace Transformation Analytical Tracker	Pulls together costs from other estates models to calculate the financial implications of the Department’s estates strategy.
DELtabase	Captures DEL budgets by activity and Director General area as signed off by the Executive Team and Ministers.
Move to Universal Credit Cost model	Cost Model to calculate the FTE requirement needed to migrate Income Support, Jobseeker’s Allowance, Employment Support Allowance and Tax Credit customers onto Universal Credit.
Synergy Programme	Assesses all costs and benefits associated with the Synergy Programme, providing figures for the Economic and Finance Cases in the Business Case as well as breakdowns of costs for each department.
Activities Volumes Workbook	A collation tool for bringing together forecast lines from the INFORM3 model and other forecasts.
Average Elements Model	Forecasting of average awards that are combined with caseload forecasts to produce estimated Annually Managed Expenditure for Universal Credit.
Bereavement Related Benefits forecasting model	Forecasting of Annually Managed Expenditure on bereavement benefit.
Cold Weather Payments forecasting model	Forecasting Annually Managed Expenditure of Cold Weather Payments.
Employment Support Allowance Annually Managed Expenditure model	Forecasting of Annually Managed Expenditure on Employment Support Allowance.
Employment Support Allowance Workloads forecasting model	Forecasting of Department for Work and Pensions workloads for processing Employment Support Allowance claims.
Funeral Expenses Payment forecasting model	Forecasting the Departmental Expenditure on Funeral Expenses Payments.
Housing Benefit Model	Forecasting Annually Managed Expenditure and Local Authority expenditure on Housing Benefit.
Income Support Annually Managed Expenditure forecasting model	Forecasting of Annually Managed Expenditure on Income Support.
Income Support Workloads forecasting model	Forecasting of Department for Work and Pensions workloads for processing Income Support claims.
INFORM2	Dynamic microsimulation model of Universal Credit caseload in payment.
INFORM3	Dynamic Microsimulation model of Department of Work and Pensions workloads on Universal Credit.
Jobseekers Allowance Annually Managed Expenditure forecasting model	Forecasting of Annually Managed Expenditure on Jobseekers Allowance.
Jobseekers Allowance workloads forecasting model	Forecasting of Department for Work and Pensions workloads for processing Jobseekers Allowance claims.
Legacy Rundown model	Forecasting of the benefits being replaced by Universal Credit (“legacy benefits”) as recipients are transferred onto Universal Credit.
Maternity Allowance forecasting model	Forecasting of Annually Managed Expenditure on Maternity Allowance.
Maternity Drivers forecasting model	Forecasting growth rates for Statutory Maternity Pay and Maternity Allowance population for use in other models.
NINO forecasting model	Forecasting of numbers of applications for National Insurance Numbers.
Policy Simulation model	A static microsimulation model of the UK tax and benefit system using the Family Resources Survey as its basis.
Statutory Maternity Pay forecasting model	Forecasting of Annually Managed Expenditure on Statutory Maternity Pay.
Support for Mortgage Interest model	Forecasts Annually Managed Expenditure on Support for Mortgage Interest.
Sure Start Maternity Grant forecasting model	Forecasting Departmental Expenditure on Sure Start Maternity Grants.
Universal Credit Advances	Forecasting payments made and recovered in advance of regular Universal Credit payments.
Work Capability Assessment workloads forecasting model	Forecasting of Department for Work and Pensions workloads for conducting Work Capability Assessments.
Employment Advisers (EA) in NHS Talking Therapies (TT) - Financial Allocations and forecasting tool	The EA in NHS TT Financial Allocations and Projection tool is a structured financial modelling solution designed to support accurate budgeting and forecasting for EA in NHS TT. It calculates projected costs based on salary structures, pay awards, and staffing levels, and dynamically updates forecasts as inputs change. The tool provides a transparent, formula-driven approach that links baseline salary data to expenditure projections, enabling real-time updates and scalability for multiple financial years. Its purpose is to ensure consistent, evidence-based financial planning and reporting for programme delivery and strategic decision-making.
Employment Advisors in NHS Talking Therapies Cost - Benefit Analysis model	Analytical-owned model used to estimate the costs and benefits of the Employment Advisors in NHS Talking Therapies intervention.
Statutory Sick Pay (SSP) Costing model	Uses survey data to estimate the current cost of SSP payments to employers and other SSP costing scenarios.
WorkWell modelling v2.4 Outline Business Case 2025 (Expansion Final)	Analytically-owned model used to estimate the costs and benefits of WorkWell. The model additionally provides outputs related to estimated completed interventions by sites.

Related publication: Annual Report and Accounts – Further information on the department’s governance, performance.