Guidance

Progression model: changes to prison release arrangements

Published 10 August 2026

Applies to England and Wales

What victims need to know

We understand that information about an offender’s sentence or release can be difficult to receive. This guide explains what is changing, how victims can be informed and what support is available.  

Why are prison release arrangements changing?

The Government is introducing changes to prison release arrangements through the Sentencing Act 2026. These changes are intended to help ensure there is enough space in prisons, while making sure there is tough supervision of offenders when they are released to keep victims and the wider public safe.

What is the new progression model?

The Progression Model applies where prisoners are serving a particular type of sentence called a Standard Determinate Sentence. This is a fixed-term prison sentence with a definite end date, split between time served in custody and time supervised in the community on licence.

An offender’s sentence will have three stages:

A flow chart showing the three stages of an offender' sentence. Stage 1: Prison, Stage 2: Intensive Supervision in the community. Stage 3: Final period on licence in the community.

The Progression Model changes the amount of time offenders will spend in prison (stage 1) before entering intensive supervision in the community (stage 2).

In stage 2: the offender is supervised by the Probation Service in the community. This will include regular appointments, risk assessments, and monitoring of licence conditions.  

In stage 3: all offenders will remain on licence, and can be recalled to custody if they cannot be safely managed in the community. Some offenders, including rape, certain child sexual offenders, and all offenders managed under Multi-agency public protection arrangements (MAPPA) will continue to be supervised by probation. 

Will every offender’s release date change?

The changes do not apply to more than 18,000 offenders. For a list of offences that this model does not apply to visit sentencing act offence exclusions.

Whilst these offences are excluded, the release date for an offender might still change if they are serving sentences for other offences. For example, if someone is serving 5 years for rape and 5 years for assault consecutively, whilst their release date for rape will not change, they might be released earlier than planned because the assault sentence will be subject to the Progression Model.

The changes also do not apply to offenders serving more serious sentences including:

• Life sentences
• Extended Determinate Sentences
• Sentences for Offenders of Particular Concern
• Other indeterminate sentences, including Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) sentences

Further information on different types of sentences can be found on the sentencing council’s website.

What safeguards will be in place?

Protecting victims remains a priority. All offenders released through the Progression Model will be subject to strict licence conditions and a period of intensive supervision. These are rules they must follow, otherwise they may be ‘recalled’ and taken back to prison.

Probation practitioners have discretion to apply appropriate licence conditions where necessary and proportionate. These can include:

• prohibition on contacting the victim or their family;
• requirement to reside at a particular address so their location can be monitored and managed as part of their supervision;
• requirement to take alcohol tests;
• prohibition from driving, attending public events, or entering pubs, clubs and bars.
• for some serious sexual and violent offenders, additional restrictions may be imposed, including areas they are prohibited from leaving (restriction zones).

Additionally:

• There will also be a presumption that all offenders are electronically tagged on release, unless it is unsuitable or inappropriate to do so. For example, where there is no fixed abode.
• Random drug test will take place for people on licence.
• Additional measures for rape and certain child sexual offenders, including presumption of a 12-month GPS trail monitoring, strengthened community supervision and mandatory consideration of referral to approved premises, probation’s most secure community accommodation.

Victims opted in and eligible for the Victim Contact Scheme are able to make representations about the conditions they think would protect them through their allocated Victim Liaison Officer. This could include an exclusion zone or a non-contact condition.

How will victims receive information about release date changes and licence conditions?

Sentences in scope of the changes will now be recalculated. This can be complex in some cases and will take time, which will mean victims affected may not hear updates for several weeks or more. We anticipate that all sentence calculations will be reviewed by the end of September.  

We are working to ensure there are routes for affected victims to either receive information proactively, or be made aware that they can request information. Therefore, victims do not need to take action at this stage.

There are two main routes for victims to receive or request information:   

The Victim Contact Scheme

Victims of specified serious sexual or violent offences, where an offender receives a prison sentence of 12 months or more, are eligible for the Victim Contact Scheme. Victims who opt into the scheme can receive information about an offender’s release where appropriate, and can also make representations about licence conditions and supervision requirements. Probation will take these representations into account when considering

Victims who have opted into the scheme are assigned a Victim Liaison Officer who will keep them informed about any changes to an offender’s release, and explain what happens next.  They will also support the victim to make representations about licence conditions, if they wish to.

Eligible victims can opt-in to the Victim Contact Scheme at any point during an offender’s sentence, even if they opted out in the past by contacting: VCSenquiries@justice.gov.uk

Victims not eligible for the Victim Contact Scheme:

We will be implementing a new process to enable victims who are not eligible for the Victim Contact Scheme to request information about an offender.

We will identify victims affected by these changes and, where contact details are available, contact them to explain how they can request information about their case.

What support is available to victims?

We recognise that hearing about an offender’s release can be distressing, and some may need emotional support and practical advice. That is why we are investing an additional £10m in funding for victim support services.

Victims can access information about the support available in their local areas by visiting the Victim and Witness Information website.

We are setting up a dedicated helpline to provide emotional support, practical advice, and a safe space to talk to help victims access the support they may need. The helpline will not be able to provide specific case details or release dates, which will instead be directly communicated to eligible victims through the routes described above.

This helpline should be available no later than October. The Ministry of Justice will promote the helpline once it’s available, and ensure Victim Liaison Officers are aware of it so they can signpost victims to the service where appropriate.

In the meantime, victims can also access other national helplines, some of which are listed below:

Domestic Abuse Helpline: 0808 200 0247

Rape and Sexual Abuse Helpline: 0808 500 2222

Stalking Helpline: 0808 802 0300

NSPCC: 0808 800 5000

Victim Support: 0808 16 89 111