UKHSA publishes latest Cold mortality monitoring report
Findings from the report show that 2,200 deaths were associated with cold weather in England during winter 2025 to 2026.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has published its latest Cold mortality monitoring report, providing estimates of deaths associated with cold weather in England during winter 2025 to 2026.
Findings from the report show that 2,200 deaths were associated with cold weather across 5 cold weather episodes. This was lower than the estimated 2,544 cold-associated deaths recorded across 3 cold weather episodes during winter 2024 to 2025. The most severe episode, a 9-day period in early January, was associated with an estimated 1,563 cold-associated deaths.
Other key findings from the report include:
- cold-associated deaths were recorded in all regions except the North East
- the North West experienced the highest mortality rate, with 52 cold-associated deaths per million population, followed by the East Midlands and Yorkshire and The Humber
- circulatory diseases caused the highest number of cold-associated deaths, with an estimated 757 deaths linked to these conditions
- deaths from circulatory conditions, cancer, accidents and injuries, and other causes all became more likely as temperatures fell, with the strongest relationship seen for circulatory diseases
- influenza and pneumonia showed a different pattern, with mortality risk increasing during both very cold weather and some milder periods, suggesting a complex interaction between cold weather and seasonal infections
- dementia and Alzheimer’s disease, and chronic lower respiratory diseases, showed a similar pattern to influenza and pneumonia, though with less extreme changes
The report found that regional differences in cold-associated mortality do not always reflect differences in winter temperatures. Although the North East experienced colder temperatures than many other regions, no cold-associated deaths were identified there during the monitoring period. In contrast, the North West recorded the highest mortality rate.
These regional variations may be influenced by factors such as housing quality, home heating, population health, and how people adapt to cold weather. However, further research is needed to better understand the reasons behind these differences.
To understand the health impacts of cold weather, UKHSA analyses daily death registrations alongside Met Office temperature data. Statistical modelling is used to estimate how mortality risk changes as temperatures fall and how these effects can accumulate over several days. This allows UKHSA to estimate deaths associated with specific periods of cold weather, rather than relying on death certificates, which do not record ‘cold’ as a cause of death.
These estimates form part of wider winter health surveillance and sit alongside monitoring of flu, COVID-19, RSV, norovirus and other seasonal pressures. Together, these data help ensure that Cold-Weather Alerts and winter preparedness measures are informed by evidence of real-world health impacts.
UKHSA’s episode-based approach complements longer-term analyses by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which examine the average impact of cold weather over several decades. While the two approaches are not directly comparable, they provide a broader understanding of how cold weather affects health in England.
Dr Agostinho Sousa, Head of Extreme Events and Health Protection at UKHSA, said:
Cold weather poses a serious risk to health, particularly for people who are more vulnerable because of their age, health, or living circumstances. Our cold weather mortality report shows that around 2,200 people died as a result of very low temperatures last winter.
While this estimate of cold-associated deaths is lower than we saw during the previous winter, these figures show that even short periods of cold weather can have serious effects on health and can lead to increased deaths in the days and weeks that follow.
As we head into winter, it is important that everyone takes simple steps to protect themselves and others. This includes keeping parts of our homes warm, checking in on friends, family and neighbours that are most vulnerable, and following weather forecasts and public health advice during cold weather.
Population groups most at risk from cold weather include:
- people aged 65 years and over
- people with cardiovascular or respiratory conditions
- people with dementia
- people living in poorly insulated homes or experiencing fuel poverty
The full Cold mortality monitoring report has been published. The findings in this report should not be directly compared with UKHSA’s heat mortality reports, as the methods used to measure the health impacts of cold and hot weather are different. Together, the reports contribute to the evidence base underpinning the Adverse Weather and Health Plan for England.