Pathways to Work: Evidence pack: Chapter 1 case for change evidence
Updated 18 June 2025
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This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/pathways-to-work-reforming-benefits-and-support-to-get-britain-working-green-paper/pathways-to-work-evidence-pack-chapter-1-case-for-change-evidence
Published: 02 May 2025
Coverage: As specified in the chapter
Theme: Health and disability benefits
Frequency: Ad hoc publication
Contacts
Analysis: Disability Analysis Division
Email: healthanddisability.consultation@dwp.gov.uk
Department for Work and Pensions
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Further Information
1. The number of Working Age people claiming incapacity and disability benefits has risen steadily for the last decade
Chart 1.1: Working Age Claimants of PIP or DLA and Universal Credit on the Health Journey or ESA (England and Wales)
Table 1.1* and this chart show the number of working age people receiving DLA, PIP, ESA, UC and JSA since May 2013 up to May 2024.
The number of people claiming incapacity and disability benefits has risen steadily since 2018, having been broadly flat for the previous 5 years.
The number of working aged people receiving incapacity and disability benefits has increased from 2.8 million in 2018 to 4.1 million in 2024.
Caseload increases are driven more by PIP claims over the period, the proportion of 16 to 65 year olds on UC Health only or ESA has risen by 37% over the 6 years, whereas the number of PIP claimants has risen by 53%; these compare to a rise in the 16 to 65 population of 5%.
England and Wales only.
Note:
*Table 1.1 is not shown in this document. Please refer to the accompanying Excel tables. Population figures updated since Interim Evidence Pack release.
Source: DWP administrative data
2. Working Age Claimants of PIP or DLA and Universal Credit on the Health Journey or ESA, by PIP or DLA award level
Table 1.2: Breakdown of caseload in receipt of financial support for a disability or health condition, by PIP/DLA award, England and Wales, May 2024
| PIP/DLA Award Breakdown | UC HJ / ESA (IR) - LCWRA / SG | UC HJ / ESA (IR) - LCW / WRAG | UC HJ / ESA (IR) - Pre-WCA Other UC / JSA / IS | No UC, ESA, JSA or IS | Contributory ESA only | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enhanced Daily Living Award | Enhanced Mobility Award | 621,500 | 29,300 | 25,900 | 45,800 | 263,400 | 92,700 | 1,078,500 |
| Enhanced Daily Living Award | Standard Mobility Award | 190,900 | 21,400 | 9,100 | 27,200 | 85,500 | 14,200 | 348,500 |
| Enhanced Daily Living Award | Nil Mobility Award | 71,900 | 8,300 | 3,500 | 11,200 | 27,200 | 5,000 | 127,100 |
| Standard Daily Living Allowance* | Enhanced Mobility Award | 175,000 | 18,500 | 10,300 | 23,800 | 88,900 | 31,500 | 347,900 |
| Standard Daily Living Allowance* | Standard Mobility Award | 211,800 | 31,100 | 14,200 | 44,500 | 141,800 | 28,000 | 471,500 |
| Standard Daily Living Allowance* | Nil Mobility Award | 210,000 | 40,300 | 16,700 | 60,800 | 143,400 | 18,900 | 490,200 |
| Nil Daily Living Award | Enhanced Mobility Award | 18,200 | 8,800 | 2,300 | 8,300 | 23,100 | 2,700 | 63,400 |
| Nil Daily Living Award | Standard Mobility Award | 20,300 | 7,400 | 2,500 | 9,900 | 24,900 | 2,700 | 67,800 |
The table shows the number of claimants receiving PIP/DLA awards in England and Wales as of May 2024 along with any award on the UC or ESA health journeys.
Note:
*DLA middle and lower Care awards are combined under Standard Daily Living in the above table.
Source: DWP administrative data
3. The percentage of Working Age population in receipt of an incapacity or disability benefit varies by region
Table 1.3* and the following charts show the regional caseloads of claimants receiving financial support for disabilities or health conditions in England and Wales as of May 2024, including PIP/DLA awards and any UC or ESA health journey awards.
10.4% and 14.9% of working age people in England and Wales respectively claim at least one health-related benefit.
Charts 1.3a, 1.3b, and 1.3c: Working Age Claimants of PIP or DLA and Universal Credit on the Health Journey or ESA, by region, England and Wales
Source: DWP administrative data
Note:
- Table 1.3 is not shown in this document. Please refer to the accompanying Excel tables.
4. Working Age Claimants of PIP or DLA and Universal Credit on the Health Journey or ESA, by local authority.
Table 1.4* covers the caseloads (by local authority) of working age claimants receiving financial support for disabilities or health conditions in England and Wales as of May 2024, including PIP/DLA awards and any UC or ESA health journey awards.
The percentage of working age claimants in each local authority claiming at least one health-related benefit and ranges from 2.5% in the City of London to 21.9% in Blaenau Gwent.
Note:
- Table 1.4 is not shown in this document. Please refer to the accompanying Excel tables.
Source: DWP administrative data
5. Working Age Claimants of PIP or DLA and Universal Credit on the Health Journey or ESA, by parliamentary constituency
Table 1.5* shows the caseloads (by parliamentary constituency) of claimants receiving financial support for disabilities or health conditions in England and Wales as of May 2024, including PIP/DLA awards and any UC or ESA health journey awards.
The percentage of working age claimants in each parliamentary constituency claiming at least one health-related benefit and ranges from 4.4% in Mid Buckinghamshire to 22.6% in Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney.
Note:
- Table 1.5 is not shown in this document. Please refer to the accompanying Excel tables.
Source: DWP administrative data
6. Between 2019/2020 and 2023/2024, the number of disabled working-age people in England and Wales increased by 17%
Table 1.6* shows the number of people classed as disabled continues to rise across all countries of the UK. Between 2019/2020 and 2023/2024 the number of disabled people in England and Wales increased by 1.25 million (17%).
Notes:
- Table 1.6 is not shown in this document. Please refer to the accompanying Excel tables.
1. The definition of disability from April 2013 onwards is the Government Statistical Service (GSS) Harmonised Standard definition of disability, in line with the Equality Act 2010 (EA) core definition, and prior to April 2013 is based on the Disability Discrimination Act 1995 (DDA) definition.
2. Employment is defined as one hour or more of paid work per week or temporarily away from work.
3. The disability employment gap is defined as the difference between the percentage of disabled and non-disabled in employment.
4. Financial year starting in April and finishing the following March.
5. 9-character Government Statistical Service (GSS) code.
Source: Annual Population Survey
7. The number of people reporting a long-term health condition or classed as disabled continues to rise
Over a third (36%) of the working-age population now has a long-term health condition, compared to 29% a decade ago.
Almost a quarter (23%) of the working-age population are disabled. There were almost 10 million disabled adults of working age in 2023/2024, over 40% more than in 2013/2014.
Chart 1.7: Number of people reporting a long-term health condition or classed as disabled, including those limited a lot, aged 16 to 64, UK, by financial year, 2013/2014 - 2023/2024
Table 1.7: Number and proportion of people with a long-term health condition, disability (including those limited a lot) by year
| Year | Number of people | Number of people with a long-term health condition | Number of disabled people | Number of disabled people, limited a lot | Percentage of people with a long-term health condition | Percentage of people who are disabled | Percentage of people who are disabled, limited a lot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013/2014 | 40,560 | 11,673 | 6,892 | 2,853 | 28.8 | 17.0 | 7.0 |
| 2014/2015 | 40,703 | 11,815 | 7,100 | 3,068 | 29.0 | 17.4 | 7.5 |
| 2015/2016 | 40,904 | 12,069 | 7,332 | 3,181 | 29.5 | 17.9 | 7.8 |
| 2016/2017 | 41,080 | 12,117 | 7,411 | 3,176 | 29.5 | 18.0 | 7.7 |
| 2017/2018 | 41,180 | 12,390 | 7,473 | 3,185 | 30.1 | 18.1 | 7.7 |
| 2018/2019 | 41,270 | 12,772 | 7,815 | 3,315 | 30.9 | 18.9 | 8.0 |
| 2019/2020 | 41,357 | 13,299 | 8,273 | 3,468 | 32.2 | 20.0 | 8.4 |
| 2020/2021 | 41,361 | 13,680 | 8,277 | 3,298 | 33.1 | 20.0 | 8.0 |
| 2021/2022 | 41,405 | 14,289 | 9,006 | 3,703 | 34.5 | 21.8 | 8.9 |
| 2022/2023 | 41,562 | 14,796 | 9,484 | 3,965 | 35.6 | 22.8 | 9.5 |
| 2023/2024 | 41,716 | 15,096 | 9,777 | 4,140 | 36.2 | 23.4 | 9.9 |
Note:
1. People aged 16 to 64, United Kingdom
Sources:
1. The employment of disabled people 2024 - GOV.UK
2. Annual Population Survey
8. Over 1 in 4 claimants have been on incapacity benefits for longer than 10 years.
These tables provide further breakdowns of the total table presented in the ad-hoc publication: Total durations on incapacity benefits for claimants on Universal Credit with Limited Capability for Work, Limited Capability for Work and Work-Related Activity, or on Employment and Support Allowance in August 2024 - GOV.UK and the detailed methodology can be found within that publication.
The tables show that whilst almost half of the 2 million on UC health have been on the benefit for less than 2 years, almost half of those on ESA at that time have been on the benefit for over 10 years. One in 6 on UC health had moved to that benefit from ESA, with an average duration across both benefits of over 7 years. Over 55,000 individuals on UC health had previously also been on ESA’s predecessors, Incapacity Benefit (IB) or Severe Disablement Allowance (SDA), and remained on incapacity benefits for over 15 years.
Table 1.8a: The number of claimants on UC-H LCWRA, UC-H LCW or ESA in August 2024 by duration of claim, including durations on IB and SDA
| Under 2 years | 1,082,000 | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|
| Between 2 and up to 5 years | 792,000 | 24.3% |
| Between 5 and up to 10 years | 540,000 | 16.6% |
| Between 10 and up to 15 years | 360,000 | 11.0% |
| 15 years and longer | 488,000 | 14.9% |
| Total | 3,262,000 | 100.0% |
Table 1.8b: The number of claimants on Universal Credit Health LCWRA or LCW in August 2024 by duration of claim, including durations on IB and SDA
| Under 2 years | 948,000 | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|
| 2 to 5 years | 696,000 | 34.9% |
| 5 to 10 years | 214,000 | 10.7% |
| 10 to 15 years | 71,000 | 3.5% |
| 15+ years | 66,000 | 3.3% |
| Total | 1,996,000 | |
| Average duration (years) | 3.5 | - |
Table 1.8c: The number of claimants on Universal Credit Health LCWRA or LCW in August 2024 by duration of claim for those who did not move to UC directly from ESA
| Under 2 years | 911,000 | 57.3% |
|---|---|---|
| 2 to 5 years | 617,000 | 38.8% |
| 5 to 10 years | 61,000 | 3.8% |
| 10 to 15 years | not applicable | - |
| 15+ years | not applicable | - |
| Total | 1,589,000 | - |
| Average duration (years) | 2.0 | - |
Table 1.8d: The number of claimants on Universal Credit Health LCWRA or LCW in August 2024 by duration of claim for those that moved to UC directly from ESA but did not move to ESA directly from IB or SDA
| Under 2 years | 37,000 | 10.8% |
|---|---|---|
| 2 to 5 years | 79,000 | 22.9% |
| 5 to 10 years | 153,000 | 44.3% |
| 10 to 15 years | 68,000 | 19.5% |
| 15+ years | 9,000 | 2.5% |
| Total | 346,000 | - |
| Average duration (years) | 6.9 | - |
Table 1.8e: The number of claimants on Universal Credit Health LCWRA or LCW in August 2024 by duration of claim for those that moved to UC directly from ESA and moved directly to ESA from IB or SDA
| Under 2 years | not applicable | - |
|---|---|---|
| 2 to 5 years | 0 | 0% |
| 5 to 10 years | 0 | 0% |
| 10 to 15 years | 3,000 | 5% |
| 15+ years | 58,000 | 94% |
| Total | 61,000 | - |
| Average duration (years) | 22.9 | - |
Table 1.8f: The number of claimants on ESA in August 2024 by duration of claim, including durations on IB and SDA
| Under 2 years | 150,000 | 10.8% |
|---|---|---|
| 2 to 5 years | 130,000 | 8.9% |
| 5 to 10 years | 360,000 | 25.9% |
| 10 to 15 years | 310,000 | 22.2% |
| 15+ years | 450,000 | 32.1% |
| Total | 1,400,000 | - |
| Average duration (years) | 8.6 | - |
Table 1.8g: The number of claimants on ESA in August 2024 by duration of claim for those who did not move to ESA directly from IB or SDA
| Under 2 years | 150,000 | 15.7% |
|---|---|---|
| 2 to 5 years | 130,000 | 13.0% |
| 5 to 10 years | 360,000 | 37.8% |
| 10 to 15 years | 300,000 | 31.5% |
| 15+ years | 20,000 | 2.1% |
| Total | 960,000 | - |
| Average duration (years) | 7.6 | - |
Table 1.8h: The number of claimants on ESA in August 2024 by duration of claim for those that moved to ESA directly from IB or SDA
| Under 2 years | 0 | 0.0% |
|---|---|---|
| 2 to 5 years | 0 | 0.0% |
| 5 to 10 years | 0 | 0.0% |
| 10 to 15 years | 10,000 | 2.0% |
| 15+ years | 430,000 | 98.0% |
| Total | 440,000 | - |
| Average duration (years) | 23.9 | - |
Source: Total durations on incapacity benefits for claimants
9. People are less likely to leave PIP now compared to when it was first introduced
Chart 1.9: Proportion of each cohort still on PIP by year
People are less likely to leave PIP compared to when it was first introduced.
This chart shows the proportion of each cohort who remain on the PIP caseload over a number of years.
Of those who started claiming PIP in 2013 (the first cohort), 52% were still claiming after 5 years, and 45% after 10 years.
The likelihood of leaving PIP has declined over time. 66% of cohorts in 2018 and 2019 are on the benefit five years later, compared to 52% for the 2013 cohort.
Table 1.9: Proportion of each cohort still on PIP by year
| Percentage | 0 years | 1 year | 2 years | 3 years | 4 years | 5 years | 6 years | 7 years | 8 years | 9 years | 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 92 | 74 | 66 | 58 | 55 | 52 | 50 | 48 | 47 | 46 | 45 |
| 2014 | 95 | 81 | 71 | 65 | 61 | 59 | 56 | 54 | 53 | 52 | - |
| 2015 | 94 | 81 | 71 | 65 | 62 | 59 | 57 | 55 | 54 | - | - |
| 2016 | 92 | 79 | 70 | 66 | 63 | 60 | 58 | 57 | - | - | - |
| 2017 | 93 | 84 | 76 | 71 | 68 | 66 | 64 | - | - | - | - |
| 2018 | 93 | 84 | 75 | 72 | 69 | 66 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2019 | 94 | 87 | 80 | 75 | 72 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2020 | 95 | 89 | 83 | 78 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2021 | 96 | 91 | 85 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2022 | 97 | 93 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2023 | 97 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Notes:
1. Year is by ‘onflow date’. Data shows proportion of inflow who are still on PIP on 1st January of each subsequent year.
2. Data includes new claims to PIP only made under normal rules. Though individuals may have had a previous spell on PIP and submitted a new claim.
3. Data includes working age claims only at the start of the claim (there are small number of people who start claiming PIP above state pension age).
4. Data only includes claimants living in regions under DWP policy ownership (England, Wales and Abroad).
5. Caseload date (i.e. final month of being on the caseload) is taken to mean the first of the month. This means there are some which have a negative duration, but are included within ‘0 years’ above.
6. The analysis tracks individual claims, checking whether they remain on the PIP caseload each month.
Source: Figures derived from DWP administrative data
10. By 2029/2030, the working age PIP caseload is forecast to be 4.2 million people.
Chart 1.10: Forecast Working Age PIP claimant caseload, by financial year, 2024/2025 - 2029/2030
Table 1.10: Forecast Working Age Claimants for Personal Independence Payment, by Financial Year
| 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28 | 2028/29 | 2029/30 | |
| Working Age PIP caseload, thousands | 3,002 | 3,283 | 3,544 | 3,801 | 4,033 | 4,260 |
|---|
Note:
Numbers are in line with the Green paper and therefore are from Autumn Budget 2024, these have subsequently been updated at the Spring Statement 2025.
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-expenditure-and- caseload-tables-2024
11. The number of people on the highest rate of Universal Credit Health or ESA is forecast to rise
The table below shows that the number of people on the highest rate of Universal Credit Health or ESA is set to rise by over 50% from 1.9 million in 2019/2020 to a forecast of 3 million by 2029/2030 which equates to the entire population of Birmingham.
The population of Birmingham was 1,144,900 in 2021.
Table 1.11: UC Health and ESA claimant volumes
| Incapacity Benefits caseload, thousands | 2019/2020 Outturn | 2029/2030 forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Employment and Support Allowance | 1,961 | 811 |
| Employment and Support Allowance (contributory) | 797 | 730 |
| Of which Support Group | 755 | 682 |
| Employment and Support Allowance (income based, without contributory benefit) | 1,056 | Not applicable |
| Of which Support Group | 805 | Not applicable |
| Universal Credit for those with health conditions | 588 | 3,587 |
| Of which limited capability for work and work-related activity | 319 | 2,584 |
| Of which, Universal Credit for those with health conditions also in receipt of Employment and Support Allowance | 34 | 249 |
| Of which Support Group / limited capability for work and work-related activity | 29 | 243 |
| Highest rate of Universal Credit Health or ESA | 1,850 | 3,023 |
Note:
Numbers are in line with the Green paper and therefore are from Autumn Budget 2024, these have subsequently been updated at the Spring Statement 2025 where WCA descriptor change policy was reversed.
Sources: Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2024 - GOV.UK
Birmingham population change, Census 2021 – ONS
12. The proportion of people being placed in the LWCRA group has increased significantly
Table 1.12: Annual proportions of ESA and UC Health Work Capability Assessment decision outcomes
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fit for Work / No limited capability for work | 53% | 47% | 38% | 33% | 22% | 22% | 30% | 28% | 24% | 15% | 11% | 2% | 17% | 15% | 16% | 14% |
| Work Related Activity Group / Limited capability for work | 36% | 41% | 33% | 30% | 21% | 17% | 14% | 22% | 23% | 20% | 17% | 15% | 17% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| Support Group / Limited capability for work and work-related activity | 11% | 12% | 28% | 37% | 57% | 61% | 56% | 50% | 54% | 64% | 71% | 83% | 66% | 67% | 66% | 68% |
The proportion of people being placed into the LCWRA group is increasing – to around two-thirds in 2024 – up from a fifth at the start of April 2011. According to the latest UC WCA Official Statistics release: Universal Credit Work Capability Assessment statistics - GOV.UK for 2024, 18% of decisions were LCW and 68% were LCWRA.
Notes:
1. ESA and UC Work Capability Assessment statistics are published on Stat-Xplore.
2. The proportions in the table above are based on the sum total of decisions made for ESA and UC Health over the financial year. Both new claims and re-referrals are included in the counts.
3. UC WCA decisions data is only available from 2019 onwards. Therefore, the proportions for the preceding years refer solely to allocations to the ESA groups FFW, WRAG and Support Group. The proportions for 2024 are based on the available data from April 2024 to September 2024.
Source: Stat-Xplore - Home
13. Between May 2018 and May 2024 the caseload on the higher rates of UC Health and ESA increased by just over 1 million
Table 1.13: Updated decomposition of growth in the number of claimants of Universal Credit with Limited Capability for Work and Work-Related Activity, or in the Employment and Support Allowance Support Group
This is an update of the following ad hoc publication, to include updated 2024 data: Decomposition of growth in the number of claimants of Universal Credit with Limited Capability for Work and Work-Related Activity, or in the Employment and Support Allowance Support Group - GOV.UK
The analysis shows that between May 2018 and May 2024 the caseload on the higher rates of UC health and ESA increased by just over 1 million, of this:
- 128,000 is because UC rolls 6 benefits into one. People who were not eligible for ESA, but might have received another benefit - that UC is replacing, are now counted in UC health
- 96,000 is because of changes to state pension age
- 77,000 is because of demographic change, with the population getting older, on average
After taking out the effects of all these factors, the number claiming the higher rates of UC health and ESA increased by 741,000 over those 6 years – or 71% of the overall observed increase.
Caseload in May of year (thousands, unless otherwise stated)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment and Support Allowance – Support Group | 1,589 | 1,574 | 1,544 | 1,480 | 1,405 | 1,338 | 1,291 |
| Universal Credit – Limited Capability for Work and Work-Related Activity | 29 | 157 | 392 | 596 | 864 | 1,179 | 1,487 |
| Less dual ESA / UC claims | 4 | 17 | 34 | 56 | 78 | 102 | 123 |
| Total incapacity benefits | 1,614 | 1,714 | 1,903 | 2,021 | 2,191 | 2,415 | 2,656 |
| Growth compared to 2018 | Not applicable | 100 | 289 | 407 | 576 | 801 | 1,042 |
| Effect of UC structural change compared to ESA (a - e) | 0 | 6 | 19 | 30 | 66 | 97 | 128 |
| a. Claimants in employment | 0 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 38 | 56 | 72 |
| b. Two claimant couples | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 24 |
| c. Housing costs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 14 |
| d. Child elements | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| e. Mixed-age couples | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 13 |
| Effect of State Pension Age increases | 0 | 32 | 64 | 79 | 84 | 91 | 96 |
| ESA SG / UC LCWRA net of above consequences of policy change | 1,614 | 1,676 | 1,820 | 1,912 | 2,041 | 2,228 | 2,432 |
| Effect of demographic change | 0 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 39 | 60 | 77 |
| ESA SG / UC LCWRA net of policy and demographic change | 1,614 | 1,666 | 1,803 | 1,886 | 2,003 | 2,168 | 2,355 |
| Growth compared to 2018 | 52 | 188 | 272 | 388 | 554 | 741 | |
| Growth due to identified policy and demographic change | 48 | 100 | 135 | 188 | 248 | 301 | |
| Share of total growth | 48% | 35% | 33% | 33% | 31% | 29% |
Source: DWP administrative data
14. The Into Work Rates of Claimants on the Universal Credit Health Journey
Chart 1.14: UC Health Into Work Rates by phase on Health Journey
The chart and table 1.14* present the trend in the into work rates for claimants on UC Health split by phase on the Health Journey and includes non-Health claimants.
Between April 2019 and December 2024, the into work rates for non-Health UC claimants have remained the highest, although they have steadily decreased, from 8.5% in April 2019 to 5.9% in November 2024.
Over the same period, the into work rates for claimants pre-Work Capability Assessment (WCA) with a live fit-note have remained relatively stable. In April 2019, the into work rates for fit-note claimants were 3.2%, roughly similar to their into work rates in November 2024 at 3.1%.
For claimants following a WCA, the into work rates for the Limited Capability for Work group have remained relatively stable, from 2.0% in April 2019 to 1.9% in November 2024. The rates for those in the Limited Capability for Work and Work-related Activity group have decreased from 1.3% in April 2019 to 0.9% in November 2024.
Finally, the rates for those found with No Limited Capability for Work after a WCA have returned to pre-pandemic levels and were 4.8% in November 2024.
Notes:
1. *Table 1.14 is not shown in this document. Please refer to the accompanying Excel tables.
2. Since 2019 the caseload his significantly increased due to the factors outlined in 1.14, but also due to the maturity of UC and the health journey replacing ESA (income related) over time.
3. The UC Health Into Work Rates are calculated using administrative data held on DWP computer systems with encrypted personal identifiers.
4. The Into Work Rates account for claimants who were not in work in the month immediately preceding the base month but were in work in the base month. The rates are calculated as a sustained measure. This means that only those claimants who enter work in the base month and sustain work for at least 2 months are included within the scope of these rates as a flow into work in the base month. In addition, these rates also cover those claimants who have already satisfied this criterion in a month earlier than the base month and have remained in work alongside staying on UC Health ever since. The growth in numbers of people in the health journey means that the denominator is growing over time, resulting in lower rates into employment using this method.
5. Since UC Health caseload is subject to retrospection, it implies that these rates are subject to retrospection as well. Further, the calculation of these rates involves rounding the percentage rates to one decimal place which brings about small but often noticeable changes to the figures.
Source: DWP Administrative Data
15. Many people who are economically inactive due to long-term sickness want to work, with nearly 700,000 stating they would like a job.
There is growing evidence that many people who are currently not working due to a health condition or disability would like to work or believe they could work. Data on economic inactivity published in January 2025 by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) demonstrates that many people who are economically inactive due to long- term sickness want to work, with nearly 700,000 stating they would like a job.
This is covered in Table 1.15*
Notes:
*Table 1.15 is not shown in this document. Please refer to the accompanying Excel tables.
Source: Labour Force Survey
16. Around a quarter of health and disability customers surveyed report they may be able to work in the future, but only if their health improves.
Chart 1.16: Percentage of respondents who answered the question: “Which of the following is closest to how you currently feel about paid work”
Base: All health and disability customers (3,361)
The chart shows the self-assessment of benefit customers claiming PIP, ESA, or UC Health of their ability to work.
Of a total of 3,361 customers who responded to the survey, 19% were already in work and 49% thought they would never be able to work again. Around a quarter (27%) reported they might be able to work in the future if their health improves, but just 5% thought they could work right now if the right job or support was available.
Table 1.16: Health and disability benefit customers’ self-assessed ability to work
| Self-assessed ability to work | All health and disability benefit customers | ESA/UC with work-related activity activity requirements (all) | ESA/UC with work-related activity activity requirements (with PIP) | ESA/UC with work-related activity activity requirements (without PIP) | ESA/UC with no work-related activity activity requirements (all) | ESA/UC with no work-related activity activity requirements (with PIP) | ESA/UC with no work-related activity activity requirements (without PIP) | ESA/UC assessment phase | PIP, not on the UC health journey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Currently in work | 19% | 17% | 9% | 22% | 6% | 5% | 9% | 22% | 49% |
| Could work now if the right job or support was available | 5% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 7% |
| Might be able to work in future but only if health improves | 27% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 28% | 22% | 41% | 47% | 16% |
| Will never be able to work (again) | 49% | 36% | 47% | 29% | 62% | 70% | 22% | 22% | 28% |
| Base | 3361 | 472 | 202 | 270 | 1861 | 1411 | 450 | 171 | 857 |
Source: Work aspirations and support needs of health and disability customers: Interim findings - GOV.UK
17. If you fall out of work sick, your chances of a return to work are 5 times higher in the first year.
Table 1.17: Number and proportion of flows of people aged 16 to 64 from economic inactivity (short or long-term sickness) to active employment by characteristic and subgroup
Table 1.17 represents the number of people who are out of work, and who are not looking for and/or available to work. It also represents those who move into work (and are not off work sick). This is broken down by age, length and time out of work and the number of health conditions.
| Characteristic | Subgroup | Total | Economically inactive - Short or long-term sick - active employment | Economically inactive - Short or long-term sick - active employment (Percentage) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 2,542 | 96 | 3.8 | |
| Age | 16 to 34 | 639 | 47 | 7.3 |
| Age | 35 to 49 | 643 | 22 | 3.4 |
| Age | 50 to 64 | 1,260 | 28 | 2.2 |
| When left last job | Less than a year ago | 154 | 28 | 18.4 |
| When last left job | Between 1 and 2 years ago | 140 | 15 | 10.4 |
| When last left job | Two more years ago or never had a paid job | 2,218 | 51 | 2.3 |
| Number of long-term health conditions | One long-term health condition | 632 | 32 | 5.1 |
| Number of long-term health conditions | Two long-term health conditions | 499 | 23 | 4.5 |
| Number of long-term health conditions | Three or more long-term health conditions | 1,350 | 30 | 2.2 |
Of the 2,542 people covered in the analysis, roughly 50% were aged between 50 and 64 years. Around 87% left their last job either more than 2 years ago or never had a paid job, while around 53% had 3 or more long-term health conditions.
Source: Annual Population Survey/Labour Force Survey
18. Spend on incapacity and disability benefits is set to rise to £70 billion for working age people over the next 5 years.
Chart 1.18: Expenditure on Disability and Incapacity Benefits for people of working age, in nominal terms
Table 1.18: Benefit expenditure to support disabled people and people with health conditions, for people of working age
| £ million, nominal terms | 2015/2016 Outturn | 2016/2017 Outturn | 2017/2018 Outturn | 2018/2019 Outturn | 2019/2020 Outturn | 2020/2021 Outturn | 2021/2022 Outturn | 2022/2023 Outturn | 2023/2024 Outturn | 2024/2025 Forecast | 2025/2026 Forecast | 2026/2027 Forecast | 2027/2028 Forecast | 2028/2029 Forecast | 2029/2030 Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Disability Benefits | 9,518 | 9,877 | 11,307 | 12,004 | 12,437 | 12,706 | 13,755 | 15,755 | 19,131 | 22,648 | 24,920 | 27,309 | 29,951 | 32,202 | 34,534 |
| Incapacity Benefits | 14,925 | 15,276 | 15,819 | 16,227 | 17,031 | 19,160 | 20,630 | 21,976 | 25,505 | 29,307 | 30,776 | 31,780 | 32,899 | 34,242 | 35,508 |
| Combined Expenditure | 24,443 | 25,153 | 27,127 | 28,231 | 29,467 | 31,866 | 34,385 | 37,731 | 44,635 | 51,956 | 55,696 | 59,089 | 62,850 | 66,444 | 70,042 |
Table 1.18 shows that in nominal terms, the combined expenditure on disability and incapacity benefits has grown from £24.4 billion in 2015 to 2016 to £44.6 billion in 2023 to 2024. Of the increase, the expenditure on disability benefits accounts for £9.6 billion, expenditure on incapacity benefits accounts for £10.6 billion.
In nominal terms, the combined expenditure on disability and incapacity benefits is forecast to grow further and reach £70 billion by 2029 to 2030.
Notes:
1. Figures are for working age people.
2. Numbers are in line with the Green paper and therefore are from Autumn Budget 2024, these have subsequently been updated at the Spring Statement 2025 where WCA descriptor change policy was reversed.
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefit-expenditure-and- caseload-tables-2024