This report provides a synthesis of some of the most recent, high-quality literature on the security and political processes in Central African Republic produced up to the end of January 2016. The report examines the internal and external conflict and peace dynamics and aims to identify the risks and potential triggers of violence. It also analyses the Brazzaville Agreement (2014), the Nairobi Agreement (2015), the Bangui Forum on National Reconciliation (2015), the electoral process (2015) and the demobilisation, disarmament and reinsertion (DDR) programme and security reform (2015). Key points are as follows:
- Sectarian tensions are rife. Despite numerous peace agreements, the
anti-balaka’s main agenda continues to be the exclusion of the Muslim
population from CAR. Reconciliation needs to remain a priority.
- High levels of impunity remain a major concern. Lack of accountability
for the crimes perpetrated continues to fuel mistrust within the
population. Limited political will coupled with an inadequate judicial
infrastructure has hampered investigations into atrocities.
- The collapse of the state and the economy allowed armed and criminal
groups to thrive in a climate of lawlessness. Armed groups gained
control over the country’s abundant natural resources and profited
from their exploitation. The revenues generated sustain their
activities and represent a strong incentive to perpetuate the conflict
rather than negotiate peace.
- Former leaders Djotodia and Bozizé and their deputies have formed
opportunistic alliances and parallel peace processes in an effort to
undermine the stability of the transition.
- Fragmentation of the armed groups and leadership rivalries have made
it difficult to reach a consensus in political negotiations.
- The timing of the electoral process has involved successive delays:
the timing has been dictated predominantly by the international
community, which underestimated the scale and complexity of the
conflict. External political agendas not always aligned with local
needs have influenced the conflict resolution process.
Dukhan, N. The Central African Republic crisis. Governance and Social Development Resource Centre, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK (2016) 56 pp.