Operationalizing safe operating space for regional social-ecological systems
This study examines the social-ecological system in the Bangladesh delta
Abstract
This study makes a first attempt to operationalize the safe operating space concept at a regional scale by considering the complex dynamics (e.g. non-linearity, feedbacks, and interactions) within a systems dynamic
The findings show that the social-ecological system in the Bangladesh delta may move beyond a safe operating space when a withdrawal of a 50% subsidy for agriculture is combined with the effects of a 2 °C temperature increase and sea level rise.
Further reductions in upstream river discharge in the Ganges would push the system towards a dangerous zone once a 3.5 °C temperature increase was reached
The social-ecological system in Bangladesh delta may be operated within a safe space by:
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managing feedback (e.g. by reducing production costs) and the slow biophysical variables (e.g. temperature, rainfall) to increase the long-term resilience
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negotiating for transboundary water resources
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revising global policies (e.g. withdrawal of subsidy) that negatively impact at regional scales.
This study demonstrates how the concepts of tipping points, limits to adaptations, and boundaries for sustainable development may be defined in real world social-ecological systems.
This work was supported by the Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) programme
Citation
Hossain, M.Sawar; Dearing, J.A.; Eigenbrod, F.; Johnson, F.Amoako (2017) Operationalizing safe operating space for regional social-ecological systems Science of The Total Environment Volume 584-585 pp 673-682
Links
Operationalizing safe operating space for regional social-ecological systems