Local, national, and regional viral haemorrhagic fever pandemic potential in Africa: a multistage analysis
Predicting when and where pathogens will emerge is difficult, yet, as shown by the recent Ebola and Zika epidemics, effective and timely responses are key
Abstract
Predicting when and where pathogens will emerge is difficult, yet, as shown by the recent Ebola and Zika epidemics, effective and timely responses are key. It is therefore crucial to transition from reactive to proactive responses for these pathogens. To better identify priorities for outbreak mitigation and prevention, we developed a cohesive framework combining disparate methods and data sources, and assessed subnational pandemic potential for 4 viral haemorrhagic fevers in Africa, Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever, Ebola virus disease, Lassa fever, and Marburg virus disease
This research was supported by the Research for Health in Humanitarian Crises (R2HC) Programme
Citation
David M Pigott, Aniruddha Deshpande, Ian Letourneau, Chloe Morozoff, Robert C Reiner, Moritz U G Kraemer, Shannon E Brent, Isaac I Bogoch, Kamran Khan, Molly H Biehl, Roy Burstein, Lucas Earl, Nancy Fullman, Jane P Messina, Adrian Q N Mylne, Catherine L Moyes, Freya M Shearer, Samir Bhatt, Oliver J Brady, Peter W Gething, Daniel J Weiss, Andrew J Tatem, Luke Caley, Tom De Groeve, Luca Vernaccini, Nick Golding, Peter Horby, Jens H Kuhn, Sandra J Laney, Edmond Ng, Peter Piot, Osman Sankoh, Christopher J L Murray, Simon I Hay, Local, national, and regional viral haemorrhagic fever pandemic potential in Africa: a multistage analysis, The Lancet, Volume 390, Issue 10113, 2017, Pages 2662-2672, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32092-5.