Estimating the probability of demonstrating vaccine efficacy in the declining Ebola epidemic

A Bayesian modelling approach

• From: Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office
• Published: 1 December 2015

• Document Type: Journal Article
• Theme: Health
• Authors: Camacho, A, Eggo, R.M., Funk, S

Abstract

This study investigate the chance of demonstrating Ebola vaccine efficacy in an individually randomised controlled trial implemented in the declining epidemic of Forécariah prefecture, Guinea.

We extend a previously published dynamic transmission model to include a simulated individually randomised controlled trial of 100 000 participants. Using Bayesian methods, we fit the model to Ebola case incidence before a trial and forecast the expected dynamics until disease elimination. We simulate trials under these forecasts and test potential start dates and rollout schemes to assess power to detect efficacy, and bias in vaccine efficacy estimates that may be introduced.

This research was supported by the Research for Health in Humanitarian Crises (R2HC) Programme

Citation

Camacho A, Eggo RM, Funk S, et al. Estimating the probability of demonstrating vaccine efficacy in the declining Ebola epidemic: a Bayesian modelling approach BMJ Open 2015;5:e009346. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-009346

Link

Estimating the probability of demonstrating vaccine efficacy in the declining Ebola epidemic : a Bayesian modelling approach

Published 1 December 2015