Provisional road traffic estimates, Great Britain: October 2020 to September 2021
Published 14 December 2021
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About this release
This release presents provisional estimates for road traffic in Great Britain for October 2020 to September 2021. Provisional estimates are published quarterly and remain provisional until after they have been constrained by the final annual estimates each year. These provisional estimates are based on traffic data collected continuously from a network of around 300 automatic traffic counters. Final annual figures also incorporate manual traffic count data.
Traffic shows a seasonal pattern at the national level, being highest in summer and lowest in winter. This publication focuses on rolling annual traffic totals, which better illustrate medium and long term trends in traffic.
Final 2021 annual traffic estimates are expected to be published in May 2022. The next provisional figures, for the year ending March 2022, are due to be released in June 2022.
Headline figures
The recent trends in road traffic have been impacted by the national restrictions implemented from March 2020 onwards following the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
Provisional estimates show motor vehicles travelled 299.3 billion vehicle miles in Great Britain for the year ending September 2021. All motor vehicle traffic was broadly stable compared to the year ending September 2020 (+0.4%), but was 16.1% lower than pre-pandemic levels (the year ending December 2019).
Chart 1: Rolling annual indices of road traffic in Great Britain from 1994 (2015 onwards shown) (from TRA2501b)
Compared to the year ending September 2020, in the year ending September 2021:
- car traffic decreased by 1.7% to 222.3 billion vehicle miles
- van and lorry traffic increased by 7.3% and 8.9%, respectively
- motorway traffic decreased by 1.4%
- ’A’ road traffic increased by 0.6%
- minor road traffic increased by 1.1%
Impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic
Data since March 2020 are affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. This should be considered when comparing them with previous time periods.
Chart 2 shows how changes in estimated quarterly traffic levels have impacted the rolling annual traffic index since the start of the pandemic. In 2018 and 2019, quarterly traffic levels remained broadly stable, ranging from 81.9 to 92.3 billion vehicle miles. Traffic levels have been lower since the start of the pandemic. The quarters most impacted were April to June 2020 and January to March 2021, recording 48.6 and 59.0 billion vehicle miles, respectively.
The rolling annual traffic index reached the lowest level (since records start in 1994) for the year ending March 2021. All motor vehicle traffic levels were 27.4% lower in the year ending March 2021 when compared to the year ending December 2019. This is because it is the only rolling annual period to include data from both quarters most impacted by the pandemic. Each following rolling annual index has seen an increase as they no longer include the period April to June 2020.
All motor vehicle traffic in the year ending September 2021 was 16.1% lower than pre-pandemic levels (the year ending December 2019), but remained broadly stable compared to the year ending September 2020 (+0.4%). The trends have also varied across the year, as shown in the road traffic daily trends which is published on a weekly basis.
Chart 2: Recent trends in road traffic in Great Britain from 2018 (from TRA2501b and TRA2501e)
Publication of daily road traffic trends during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic
Transport use during the COVID-19 pandemic is a weekly statistical publication which includes estimates of road traffic change on Great Britain’s roads for each day since 1 March 2020. The road traffic figures in the weekly publication use the same data source as the statistics presented in this release. However, to achieve a daily estimate of traffic change, lower levels of validation have been applied compared to the statistical outputs presented here. Further information is available in the corresponding methodology note.
Summary of trends
Table 1 shows how vehicle traffic in the year ending September 2021 compares to a selection of earlier years. The background information section of this statistical release provides details on how to interpret comparisons between rolling annual periods. Note that any differences between -0.5% and +0.5% are considered negligible.
Table 1: Provisional estimates of vehicle miles travelled in Great Britain in the year ending September 2021 compared to earlier years (from TRA2501a)
| Percentage change from… | Last quarter | Last year | Pre-pandemic | 5 years ago | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year ending | Sep 2021 | Jun 2021 | Sep 2020 | Dec 2019 | Sep 2016 | |
| All motor vehicle traffic | 299.3 billion | + 2.1% | + 0.4% | - 16.1% | - 11.2% | |
| Cars and taxis | 222.3 billion | + 2.5% | - 1.7% | - 20.1% | - 15.6% | |
| Light goods vehicles | 55.0 billion | + 1.4% | + 7.3% | - 1.0% | + 7.5% | |
| Heavy goods vehicles | 17.8 billion | + 0.6% | + 8.9% | + 2.5% | + 4.7% | |
| Motorways | 56.4 billion | + 3.4% | - 1.4% | - 20.0% | - 16.4% | |
| ‘A’ roads | 124.3 billion | + 2.1% | + 0.6% | - 17.2% | - 13.9% | |
| Minor roads | 118.6 billion | + 1.6% | + 1.1% | - 12.7% | - 5.5% |
Road traffic by vehicle type
Car and taxi traffic decreased by 1.7%, to 222.3 billion vehicle miles, when compared to the year ending September 2020. Car traffic rolling annual estimates remain considerably lower than those for before the pandemic (-20.1% when compared to the year ending December 2019). Prior to the pandemic, car and taxi traffic increased by 7.8% between 2015 and 2019.
Van traffic increased by 7.3%, to 55.0 billion vehicle miles, when compared to the year ending September 2020. However, this figure remains lower than levels before the pandemic (-1.0% when compared to the year ending December 2019). Prior to the pandemic, van traffic increased by 13.6% between 2015 and 2019.
Lorry traffic increased by 8.9%, to 17.8 billion vehicle miles, when compared to the year ending September 2020. In the year ending September 2021, lorry traffic was slightly higher than before the pandemic (+2.5% when compared to the year ending December 2019). Prior to the pandemic, lorry traffic increased by 3.1% between 2015 and 2019.
Chart 3: Rolling annual index of road traffic in Great Britain, by vehicle type from 1994 (2015 onwards shown) (from TRA2501b)
Road traffic by road type
Motorway traffic decreased by 1.4%, to 56.4 billion vehicle miles, when compared to the year ending September 2020. Motorway traffic rolling annual estimates remain considerably lower than those for before the pandemic (-20.0% when compared to the year ending December 2019). Prior to the pandemic, motorway traffic increased by 6.0% between 2015 and 2019.
‘A’ road traffic increased by 0.6%, to 124.3 billion vehicle miles, when compared to the year ending September 2020. ‘A’ road traffic levels remain lower than before the pandemic (-17.2% when compared to the year ending December 2019). Prior to the pandemic, ‘A’ road traffic increased by 6.5% between 2015 and 2019.
Minor road traffic increased by 1.1%, to 118.6 billion vehicle miles, when compared to the year ending September 2020. Minor road traffic was lower than levels before the pandemic (-12.7% when compared to the year ending December 2019). Prior to the pandemic, minor traffic increased by 11.3% between 2015 and 2019.
Chart 4: Rolling annual index of road traffic in Great Britain by road type from 1994 (2015 onwards shown) (from TRA2502b)
Background information
Glossary
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Billion | A thousand million |
| Great Britain | England, Wales and Scotland |
| Index Number | Comparing changes over time from a selected base year, often across multiple indicators where they cannot be directly compared |
| Q1 | Quarter 1: 1 January to 31 March. Similar for other quarters |
| Traffic | Total distance travelled by vehicles, combining the number of vehicles on the road and how far they drive |
| Vehicle miles | The units that traffic is measured in. Three vehicles travelling for four miles each would account for 12 vehicle miles worth of traffic |
| Lorry/HGV | A goods vehicle over 3.5 tonnes gross vehicle weight |
| Van/LCV | A goods vehicle under 3.5 tonnes gross vehicle weight |
| Major road | ‘A’ roads and Motorways |
| Minor road | ‘B’, ‘C’ and unclassified roads |
| Rural road | Roads within an area with a population of under 10,000 people |
| Urban road | Roads within an area with a population of 10,000 or more people in England and Wales over 3,000 in Scotland |
About rolling annual comparisons
Rolling annual comparisons provide insightful evidence into the nature of road traffic in Great Britain. Chart 5 shows how to interpret rolling annual data and how data from rolling annual periods have been compared in this statistical release.
Chart 5: Guidance on comparing rolling annual data
Further information
The department publishes a background quality report to accompany this publication. The document contains information about the methodology adopted and the quality of the outputs, measured against various dimensions of statistical quality, as set out by the Code of Practice for Statistics. The background quality report is available on the road traffic statistics information page.
National Statistics are produced to high professional standards, as set out in the Code of Practice for Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure they meet customer needs. These statistics were designated as National Statistics in February 2013, details of which can be found on the road traffic statistics information page.
Details of ministers and officials who receive pre-release access to these statistics up to 24 hours before release can be found on the pre-release access page.
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Contact details
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