Accredited official statistics

Proven reoffending statistics: October to December 2022

Published 31 October 2024

Applies to England and Wales

1. Main points

This publication provides the proven reoffending statistics for the October to December 2022 offender cohort, alongside historical data from 2011 onwards. Although this cohort does not overlap with any Covid-related lockdowns or other operational restrictions, it is still affected by the continued recovery of the courts system, particularly around continued delays in the processing of court cases.

The overall proven reoffending rate was 26.4% for the October to December 2022 offender cohort.	This represents an increase of 1.0 percentage point from the same quarter in 2021 but a decrease of 0.1 percentage points over the last quarter.
Adult offenders had a proven reoffending rate of 26.1%.	This is an increase of 1.1 percentage points since the same quarter in 2021 but a decrease of 0.1 percentage points over last quarter.
Juvenile offenders had a proven reoffending rate of 31.4%	The juvenile reoffending rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points from the same quarter in 2021 and decreased by 0.8 percentage points over last quarter.
Adults released from custody or starting court orders had a proven reoffending rate of 33.9%.	This represents an increase of 0.8 percentage points since the same quarter in 2021 but a decrease of 0.2 percentage points over last quarter.
Adults released from custodial sentences of less than 12 months had a proven reoffending rate of 56.6%.	This is an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the same quarter in 2021. Those released from sentences of less than or equal to 6 months had a proven reoffending rate of 59.6%, which is an increase of 1.6 percentage points since the same quarter in 2021.

This bulletin, and associated tables and data tools, present the proportion of offenders who reoffend (proven reoffending rate) and the number of proven reoffences by offender history, demographics, police force area, probation area, local authority, and youth offending teams. For technical details and a glossary of terms, please refer to the accompanying guide to proven reoffending.

For any feedback related to the content of this publication, please let us know at reoffendingstatistics@justice.gov.uk

2. Statistician’s Comment

“Figures presented in this statistical release show proven reoffending statistics for the October to December 2022 offender cohort. Proven reoffences are measured over a one-year follow-up period and a further six-month waiting period to allow for offences to be proven in court.

The overall proven reoffending rate was 26.4% for the October to December 2022 offender cohort, which represents an increase of 1.0 percentage point from the same quarter in 2021 and broadly the same as last quarter (0.1 percentage point decrease). In this quarter, reoffending rates increased in adult offenders (by 1.1 percentage points) and decreased in juvenile offenders (by 1.1 percentage points) when compared with the same quarter last year.

This publication covers the October to December 2022 cohort which is the sixth post-pandemic cohort that does not overlap with any Covid-related lockdowns or other operational restrictions. However, this cohort is still affected by the continued recovery of the courts system and the Criminal Bar Association strike.

There were large decreases in the reoffending rate for the pandemic affected cohorts between Oct-Dec 2018 to Oct-Dec 2020. This pandemic-related decline then began reversing up to the Jul-Sep 2022 cohort, before seemingly levelling-off for this cohort. Although the reoffending rate has remained broadly the same for this cohort in comparison to last, the average number of reoffences per reoffender (also known as the frequency rate) is the highest within the timeseries at 4.09.

While the court system continues to recover, statistics are likely to continue to fluctuate. The continued delay in processing of cases mean that increased numbers of reoffence convictions may fall outside the one-year follow-up period and six-month waiting period. Cases falling outside this period will not be counted in the proven reoffending statistics.

This publication also features, for the first time, analysis on adult reoffending by accommodation status at release from custody, and adult reoffending by employment at 6 weeks post release from custody. Data for this cohort can be found in sections 10 and 11. Additionally, data from Apr-Jun 2020 for these topics can be found in tables C3 and C4 of the proven reoffending tables.”

3. How is proven reoffending measured?

An offender is included in this publication cohort if they were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, or received a reprimand or warning in the three-month period spanning October to December 2022.

A proven reoffence is defined as any offence committed in a one-year follow-up period that leads to a court conviction, caution, reprimand, or warning in the one-year follow-up or within a further six-month waiting period to allow the offence to be proven in court. This is shown in the diagram below in relation to the latest offender cohort.

Figure 1: Timeline of the measurement period of proven reoffending for the October to December 2022 cohort (Source: Guide to Proven Reoffending Statistics)

Users should be cautious when making any comparison between cohorts before and after October 2015, due to a change in data source from October 2015 onwards. Additionally, it is important to note that the reoffending rates presented in this publication are not comparable to publications prior to October 2017, as these were reported on a 12-month cohort. Users of these statistics should also be aware that comparisons between 3-monthly cohorts are likely to be more volatile as cohort populations are smaller than the previous 12-month ones.

For further details on this and how proven reoffending is measured please see the guide to proven reoffending statistics and ‘How the measure of proven reoffending has changed and the effect of these changes’.

4. Overall – adult and juvenile offenders

---

The overall proven reoffending rate was 26.4% for the October to December 2022 offender cohort, with around 21,000 of the 79,000 offenders committing a proven reoffence.

---

4.1 Rates of proven reoffending

The overall proven reoffending rate for this quarter was 26.4%, representing an increase of 1.0 percentage point from the same quarter in 2021. Over time, the overall proven reoffending rate has fluctuated between 23.1% and 31.8% (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Percentage of adult and juvenile offenders^{[footnote 1]} in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by quarter, April to June 2011 - October to December 2022 (Source: Table A1)

Adult offenders had a proven reoffending rate of 26.1%. This is an increase of 1.1 percentage points since the same quarter in the previous year, but a decrease of 0.1 percentage points over the last quarter. The rate has fluctuated between 22.7% and 30.6% over the timeseries. However, up until the quarters affected by the pandemic, the adult reoffending rate had experienced a slight decline over time. The pandemic resulted in some volatility and marked declines for the cohorts between Oct-Dec 2018 to Oct-Dec 2020. This pandemic-related decline has begun to reverse in the last seven quarters as the impact of lockdowns and operational restrictions decreased.

Juvenile offenders had a proven reoffending rate of 31.4%. The juvenile reoffending rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points from the same quarter in the previous year and decreased by 0.8 percentage points over the last quarter. The rate of reoffending has fluctuated between 29.2% and 43.6% over the timeseries but has been in general decline since 2016.

4.2 Cohort size

Approximately 79,000 offenders were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, or received a reprimand or warning in the October to December 2022 cohort. Around 21,000 of those committed a proven reoffence within the one-year follow up period (Figure 3). In total, reoffenders committed almost 86,000 proven reoffences over the follow-up period.

Figure 3: Number of offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by quarter, January to March 2017 - October to December 2022 (Source: Table A1)

We continue to observe a general decline in the volume of offenders in the cohort and in the volume of subsequent proven reoffenders. The size of the offender cohort has decreased by 53.5% since the same quarter in 2011 and decreased by 0.2% since the same quarter in 2021. Similarly, the number of reoffenders has decreased by 60.4% since the same quarter in 2011 but increased by 3.8% since 2021.

The decline in the juvenile cohort size is particularly pronounced. The number of juvenile offenders in the cohort has decreased by 82.8% since the same quarter in 2011 and increased by 8.1% since the same quarter in 2021. The decline since 2011 is likely a reflection of continued efforts to divert juveniles away from the criminal justice system where appropriate. The relatively small cohort sizes also means that juvenile reoffending rates may be more prone to volatility and so caution should be taken when making comparisons with these rates.

Within the combined overall cohort, reoffenders committed an average of 4.09 reoffences each (also known as the frequency rate). More broadly, the overall frequency rate has been increasing and has increased by 8.7% since the same quarter in 2021. The total number of reoffences has also been increasing and has increased by 12.8% since the same quarter in 2021. Adult reoffenders committed on average 4.09 reoffences each, whilst juvenile reoffenders committed on average 4.18 reoffences each.

5. Overall – Offender demographics

---

The age group with the highest reoffending rate was 10 to 14-year-olds (33.5%). Men reoffended at a higher rate (27.2%) than women (21.9%).

---

5.1 Age

The age group with the highest reoffending rate was 10 to 14-year-olds, at 33.5% (Figure 4). This was followed by the 15 to 17-year-old offenders, with a reoffending rate of 30.7%. For adults, the proven reoffending rate starts to fall with increasing age after the 35 to 39-year-old group.

Figure 4: Percentage of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by age, October to December 2022 (Source: Table A3)

5.2 Sex

Of the overall offender cohort, 84% were male and 16% were female. The gender split has remained reasonably stable over time.

Male offenders reoffended at a higher rate of 27.2% compared to female offenders who reoffended at a rate of 21.9%. Since 2011, these rates have fluctuated between 23.9% and 33.8% for males and 18.3% to 24.4% for females.

5.3 Geography

The geographical region with the greatest decrease in the overall rate of reoffending compared to the same period last year was London, with a 1.2 percentage point decrease (Figure 5). The geographical region with the greatest increase was Yorkshire and The Humber, with a 2.4 percentage point increase. Note that the geographical regions shown are distinct from the Probation Service areas. The rates shown are also for all offenders, not just those managed by the Probation Service.

The Police Force Area (PFA) with the greatest decrease in the overall rate of reoffending compared to the same period last year was Surrey, with a 1.5 percentage point decrease. The PFA with the greatest increase was South Yorkshire, with a 4.7 percentage point increase.

Figure 5: Percentage of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by Region and Police Force Area (PFA), January 2021 to December 2022 (Source: Geographic Data Tool)

Note that reoffending rates by geographical region are rolling yearly averages, rather than quarterly values, to prevent unintended disclosure from small cohort sizes. An offender’s geographical location is based on their postcode on the date they received their disposal. Care should be taken when making direct comparison of regions, since the presented rates do not control for offender demographics.

5.4 Ethnicity

The highest reoffending rate was observed for white offenders, 28.1%, which is a 1.3 percentage point increase compared to the same quarter last year. This was followed by black offenders (26.0%, 0.3 percentage point decrease), Asian offenders (20.9%, 0.8 percentage point increase), and offenders in the other category (14.2%, 2.8 percentage point decrease).

6. Reoffending by Disposal Type

---

Adults released from custody or starting a court order had a proven reoffending rate of 33.9%, representing an increase of 0.8 percentage points since the same quarter last year.

Juvenile offenders given youth cautions or released from custody had differing proven reoffending rates, at 20.7% and 56.8% respectively.

---

Users should exercise caution when comparing the effectiveness of different sentences because the presented rates do not control for differences in offender characteristics receiving those sentences - for further information please consult recent research on the impact of short custodial sentences, community orders and suspended sentence orders on reoffending as well as the guide to proven reoffending statistics.^{[footnote 4]}

6.1 Adult offenders

The proven reoffending rate for adult offenders starting a court order^{[footnote 3]} was 32.5%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points when compared to the same quarter in 2021, and a decrease of 0.3 percentage points when compared to the previous quarter^{[footnote 2]}.

The proven reoffending rate for adult offenders released from custody was 37.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the same quarter in the previous year and a 0.2 percentage points decrease when compared to the previous quarter. The proven reoffending rate varied by custodial sentence lengths (Figure 6).

Figure 6: Percentage of adult offenders released from custody who commit a proven reoffence by custodial sentence length, by quarter, April to June 2011 - October to December 2022 (Source: Table C2a)

Adults released from custodial sentences of less than 12 months had a proven reoffending rate of 56.6%, whilst those with sentences of 12 months or more reoffended at a substantially lower rate, at 20.1%. This is an increase of 1.3 percentage points and a decrease of 0.8 percentage points respectively from the same quarter in 2021.

6.2 Juvenile offenders

Juvenile offenders given reprimands, warnings, or youth cautions^{[footnote 5]} had a proven reoffending rate of 20.7%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points since the same quarter in 2021. Those given a first tier penalty had a proven reoffending rate of 29.5%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points since the same quarter in 2021. Those released from custody had a proven reoffending rate of 56.8%, which has decreased by 9.8 percentage points since the same quarter in 2021^{[footnote 6]}.

Figure 7: Percentage of juvenile offenders released from custody or given a reprimand, warning or caution who commit a proven reoffence, by quarter, April to June 2011 - October to December 2022 (Source: Table C1b)

For the October to December 2022 cohort, 44 juvenile offenders were released from custody and 25 (56.8%) were proven to have committed a reoffence within a year.

The small numbers in this cohort make percentage figures volatile. We are continuing to investigate the fluctuations within these statistics. Further, there has been a 90.6% decrease in the number of juvenile offenders released from custody since Apr-Jun 2011. This is likely a reflection of continued efforts to divert juveniles away from custody where appropriate. This may result in a more challenging cohort who are potentially more likely to reoffend.

7. Reoffending by Index Offence Type

---

For the October to December 2022 adult cohort, the index offence^{[footnote 7]} category associated with the highest reoffending rate was Theft (53.9%).

This is an increase of 2.8 percentage points, from 51.0%, in the same quarter in 2021.

---

For adult offenders, the highest reoffending rate of 53.9% was for those with an index offence of theft. For juvenile offenders, the highest reoffending rate of 50.9% was for those with an index offence of fraud (Figure 8).

Figure 8: Percentage of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by index offence, October to December 2022 (Source: Table A4a/b)

For adult offenders, the second highest reoffending rate was for those with a public order index offence (29.0%). The lowest rate of reoffending (12.9%) was observed among those with a sexual offence as their index offence. The violence against the person index offence category saw the largest percentage point decrease in reoffending rate since the same quarter in 2021, with a 3.1 percentage point difference. Those with an index offence of miscellaneous crimes against society saw the largest increase of 3.8 percentage points over the same period.

For juvenile offenders, the second highest reoffending rate was for those with an index offence of theft at 43.9%. Offenders who had committed a sexual index offence had the lowest rate of reoffending (11.9%). Those who committed an index offence of violence against the person saw the largest percentage point decrease in reoffending rate since the same quarter in 2021, an 8.4 percentage point difference. Fraud index offences represented the largest percentage point increase over the same period (an 11.4 percentage point difference).

Due to a slight database inconsistency, the “other” offence category has the highest rate of reoffending in the adult index offence table (Table A4a). To avoid misrepresentation, and since this category is a mix of offence types, this category has been removed from the analysis and charts.

8. Reoffending by Proven Reoffence Type

---

For the October to December 2022 adult cohort, 33.8% of proven reoffences were theft, making up the highest proportion of reoffences.

This represents an increase of 6.4 percentage points compared to the same period in 2021.

---

For the adult offender cohort, the highest proportion of proven reoffences (33.8%) were for theft (Figure 9). For the juvenile offender cohort, summary non-motoring offences made up the largest proportion of reoffences (24.8%).

Figure 9: Percentage of proven reoffences for adult and juvenile offenders committed in the one-year follow-up period in England and Wales, by reoffence type, October to December 2022 (Source: Table B3)

As in section 7, the “other” offence category has been removed from analysis and charts.

For the adult offender cohort, the second highest proportion of proven reoffences were for other offences (21.5%). The share of each reoffence category has remained broadly stable over time.

For the juvenile offender cohort, theft offences make up the second largest proportion of reoffences (19.9%), followed by other offences (14.4%). There has been some variation over time in the share of each reoffence category, however, summary non-motoring has consistently had the highest proportion of total juvenile reoffences, while sexual offences have consistently had the lowest proportion of total juvenile reoffences.

For adult and juvenile offender cohorts combined, 29.8% of all reoffences took place within three months after release from custody or after receiving a non-custodial conviction at court, a reprimand, or a warning. This percentage increases to 55.7% within six months and steadily increases at an average rate of 7.4% per month beyond that point.

9. Reoffending by Number of Previous Offences

---

Offenders with 11 or more previous offences^{[footnote 8]} had the highest rate of reoffending (44.2% for adults and 71.5% for juveniles).

---

For both adult and juvenile offenders, the rate of proven reoffending increases with the number of previous offences committed, as shown in figure 10.

Figure 10: Percentage of adult and juvenile offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by number of previous offences, October to December 2022 (Source: Table A5a/b)

In the October to December 2022 cohort, the proven reoffending rate for adults ranged from 6.7% for offenders with no previous offences to 44.2% for offenders with 11 or more previous offences. Those with 11 or more previous offences made up 38.8% of all adult offenders in the cohort, represented 65.5% of all adult reoffenders and committed 77.0% of all adult proven reoffences. The proven reoffending rate for juveniles ranged from 15.8% for offenders with no previous offences to 71.5% for offenders with 11 or more previous offences.

10. Reoffending by Accommodation Status on Release from Custody

This analysis is new for this publication. Data for the cohorts Apr-Jun 2020 to Oct-Dec 2022 can be found in table C3 of the proven reoffending tables.

---

Adult offenders, released from custody, with an accommodation status on release of rough sleeping had the highest rate of reoffending (67.2%).

---

Adult offenders with an accommodation status on release of rough sleeping had the highest reoffending rate, at 67.2%. This was followed by homeless, not rough sleeping with a reoffending rate of 65.2%.

The proven reoffending rate for those who were homeless or rough sleeping was almost double, at 31.9 percentage points higher than the proven reoffending rate for those who were in some kind of accommodation upon release (66.9% vs 34.9%).

Figure 11: Percentage of adult offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by accommodation status on release from custody, October to December 2022 (Source: Table C3)

11. Reoffending by Employment Status at Six Weeks Post Release from Custody

This analysis is new for this publication. Data for the cohorts Apr-Jun 2020 to Oct-Dec 2022 can be found in table C4 of the proven reoffending tables.

---

Adult offenders, with an employment status at six weeks post release from custody of unemployed had the highest rate of reoffending (35.3%).

---

The employment status at six weeks post release with the highest reoffending rate was unemployed, at 35.3%. This was followed by unknown, with a reoffending rate of 34.7%.

The proven reoffending rate for those unemployed at six weeks post release is 18.5 percentage points higher than those who are employed at six weeks post release (35.3% vs 16.8%).

Figure 12: Percentage of adult offenders in England and Wales who commit a proven reoffence, by employment status at six weeks post release from custody, October to December 2022 (Source: Table C4)

12. Further information

12.1 Accompanying files

As well as this bulletin, the following products are published as part of this release:

• A set of overview tables, covering each section of this bulletin.
• Data tools providing proven reoffending data for England and Wales, split by various categories (covering January 2012 - December 2022).
• A technical guide to proven reoffending statistics providing information on how proven reoffending is measured and the data sources used.
• A data quality statement which outlines our policies for producing quality statistical outputs and the information provided to maintain our users’ understanding and trust.

12.2 Accredited Official Statistics status

National Statistics are accredited official statistics that meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled ‘Accredited Official Statistics’.”. You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards. Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the OSR website .

It is the Ministry of Justice’s responsibility to maintain compliance with the standards expected for National Statistics. If we become concerned about whether these statistics are still meeting the appropriate standards, we will discuss any concerns with OSR promptly. National Statistics status can be removed at any point when the highest standards are not maintained, and reinstated when standards are restored.

12.3 Future publications

Our statisticians regularly review the content of publications. Development of new and improved statistical outputs is usually dependent on reallocating existing resources. As part of our continual review and prioritisation, we welcome user feedback on existing outputs including content, breadth, frequency and methodology. Please send any comments you have on this publication including suggestions for further developments or reductions in content.

12.4 Contact

Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office:
    Tel: 020 3334 3536
    URL: www.gov.uk/government/organisations/ministry-of-justice/about/media-enquiries

Other enquiries and feedback on these statistics should be directed to the Data and Analysis directorate of the Ministry of Justice:
    Liz Whiting, Head of Reducing Reoffending and Probation Statistics

    Ministry of Justice, 10th Floor, 102 Petty France, London, SW1H 9AJ
    Email: reoffendingstatistics@justice.gov.uk

Next update: 30 January 2025

URL: www.gov.uk/government/collections/proven-reoffending-statistics

© Crown copyright
Produced by the Ministry of Justice
Alternative formats are available on request from reoffendingstatistics@justice.gov.uk

1. Juveniles are defined as those aged 10 to 17 years old. ↩

2. Proven reoffending rates by disposal should not be compared to assess the effectiveness of sentences, as there is no control for known differences in offender characteristics and the type of sentence given. For further information see Annex D of the October 2016 publication (page 41) and the guide to proven reoffending statistics. ↩

3. Community order or suspended sentence order. ↩

4. For proven reoffending statistics, a disposal is defined as a caution, court order, custody, or other disposal resulting from a conviction at court, such as a fine or discharge. A different methodology is used for proven reoffending statistics by disposal type. The first proven offence within each disposal is treated as the start point for measuring proven reoffending. Therefore, some offenders will appear in more than one disposal category. ↩

5. Reprimands and warnings for youths were abolished under the Legal Aid Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Act 2012 with effect from 8 April 2013 and replaced with youth cautions. Youth cautions are a formal out-of-court disposal that can be used as an alternative to prosecution for juvenile offenders in certain circumstances. A youth caution may be given for any offence where the young offender admits an offence and there is sufficient evidence for a realistic prospect of conviction, but it is not in the public interest to prosecute. ↩

6. The juvenile proven reoffending data by disposal uses the same methodology as that adopted for adult reoffending by disposal (see section 6 for more details). ↩

7. An index offence refers to the offence that leads to an offender being included in the offender cohort. ↩

8. Previous offences are those committed prior to an offender’s index offence. ↩