Proven re-offending statistics - October 2010 - September 2011
This report provides key statistics on proven re-offending in England and Wales. It gives proven re-offending figures for offenders who were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, received a caution, reprimand, warning or tested positive for opiates or cocaine between October 2010 and September 2011.
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Proven re-offending is defined as any offence committed in a one year follow-up period and receiving a court conviction, caution, reprimand or warning in the one year follow-up. Following this one year period, a further six month waiting period is allowed for cases to progress through the courts.
Between October 2010 and September 2011, around 620,000 offenders were cautioned, convicted (excluding immediate custodial sentences) or released from custody. Around 170,000 of these offenders committed a proven re-offence within a year. This gives a one year proven re-offending rate of 26.9 per cent, which represents a small rise of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 1.0 percentage points since 2000.
These re-offenders committed an average of 2.90 re-offences each. In total, this represents around 490,000 re-offences of which 83 per cent were committed by adults and 17 per cent were committed by juveniles.
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57.3 per cent (around 280,000) were committed by re-offenders with 11 or more previous offences.
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0.6 per cent (around 2,800) were serious violent/sexual proven re-offences.
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5.0 per cent (around 24,000) were committed by re-offenders on the Prolific and other Priority Offender Programme (PPO).
Key trends in proven re-offending
Adult offenders
Around 540,000 adult offenders were cautioned, convicted or released from custody between October 2010 and September 2011. Around 140,000 of them committed a re-offence. This gives a proven re-offending rate of 25.6 per cent, which represents a small increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and a slight fall of 0.6 percentage points since 2000.
However, compared to 2000, the offenders in the 12 months ending September 2011 had characteristics which meant they were more likely to re-offend. This means that, after controlling for offender characteristics, the decrease was larger at 3.1 percentage points.
The average number of re-offences per re-offender was 2.90, a rise of 1.9 per cent compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 14.5 per cent compared to 2000.
Looking at specific groups within the cohort:
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The proven re-offending rate for those released from custody was 46.9 per cent, a fall of 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 2.5 percentage points since 2000. The average number of re-offences committed per re-offender for this group was 4.19, an increase of 2.1 per cent compared to the previous 12 months and down 10.4 per cent since 2000.
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The proven re-offending rate for those starting a court order (Community Order or Suspended Sentence Order) was 34.3 per cent, a rise of 0.3 per cent compared to the previous 12 months and down 3.6 percentage points since 2000. The average number of re-offences per re-offender was 3.22, up 2.0 per cent compared to the previous 12 months and down 16.7 per cent since 2000.
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The proven re-offending rate for drug-misusing offenders (all offenders who are given drug orders as part of their sentence or test positive for opiates upon arrest) was 57.3 per cent. This represents no change compared to the previous 12 months.
Juvenile offenders
Around 79,000 juvenile offenders were cautioned, convicted or released from custody between October 2010 and September 2011. Around 28,000 of them committed a re-offence. This gives a proven re-offending rate of 36.1 per cent. This represents an increase in the rate of 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and a rise of 2.4 percentage points since 2000.
However, the cohort has changed considerably over the period since 2000; it is now 43 per cent smaller, and is comprised of offenders whose characteristics mean they are more likely to re-offend than those in the 2000 cohort. In order to account for this, we can control for changes in offender characteristics to give a more consistent view of changes over time. After controlling for these changes, the proven re-offending rate has actually decreased by 1.0 percentage points since 2000.
The average number of re-offences per re-offender was 2.89, an increase of 1.7 per cent compared to the previous 12 months and down 12.9 per cent since 2000.
Groups with the biggest changes in the proven re-offending rate since 2000
Biggest reductions:
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Adult females (a fall of 2.0 percentage points).
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21 to 24 year olds (a fall of 2.6 percentage points).
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Adults with 7 to 10 previous offences (a fall of 3.4 percentage points).
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Juveniles with 11 or more previous offences (a fall of 5.4 percentage points).
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Adults who received court orders (a fall 3.6 percentage points).
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Juveniles who received first tier penalties (a fall of 7.2 percentage points).
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Adults who received custodial sentences of 12 months to less than 4 years (a fall of 9.5 percentage points).
Biggest increases:
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Juvenile females (a rise of 3.8 percentage points).
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10 to 14 year olds (a rise of 5.2 percentage points).
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Adults who received custodial sentences of more than 10 years (a rise of 5.1 percentage points).
This quarterly bulletin presents the proportion of offenders who re-offend (proven re-offending rate) and the number of proven re-offences those offenders commit by age group, gender, ethnicity, criminal history and offence type. Also included are proven re-offending rates for serious proven re-offending, different types of offenders (e.g. adult, juvenile, drug-misusing and prolific and other priority offenders); different types of sentence; and for individual prisons, probation trusts and youth offending teams.
Latest figures are provided with comparisons to October 2009 to September 2010 and the year 2000 in order to highlight long-term trends; 2000 is the earliest year for which proven re-offending data exist on a comparable basis
The bulletin is produced and handled by the ministry’s analytical professionals and production staff.
Pre-release access of up to 24 hours is granted to the following persons:
Proven Re-offending Statistics Quarterly Bulletin
Ministry of Justice: Secretary of State, Ministers of State, Permanent Secretary, Director General of Justice Policy Group, Deputy Director of Youth Justice Policy, Director of Sentencing and Rehabilitation, Director General of Corporate Performance Group, Director of Analytical Services, Director General of Transforming Justice, Head of National Operations Group, Head of Justice Statistics Analytical Services, Head of Sentencing Policy and Penalties Unit, Deputy Director for Offender Management Reform, Deputy Director of Reducing Reoffending Portfolio, Deputy Director for Reducing Reoffending, Head of National Operations Group (NOMS), Director General of National Offender Management Service (NOMS), Head of Public Protection Casework Section (NOMS), Head of Offender Management and Public Protection Unit (NOMS), Head of Performance, Information and Analysis Group (NOMS), Head of Research (YJB), and the relevant special advisers, analysts, policy officers and press officers.
Home Office: Secretary of State, Ministers of State, Permanent Secretary, Programme Director of Crime and Policing Analysis Unit, Head of Reducing Reoffending Unit, and relevant special advisers, analysts, policy officers and press officers.
No 10: Special adviser to the Prime Minister.
Treasury: Ministry of Justice Finances and Strategy, Public Services Group
Interim re-conviction figures for Peterborough and Doncaster Payment by Results pilots statistical bulletin.
SERCO and Social Finance officials.