Official Statistics

Prison population projections

The latest National Statistics on prison population projections.

Documents

Prison population projections 2016 to 2021

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Prison population projections 2016 to 2021: statistical tables

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Prison population projections 2015 to 2021: statistical tables

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Response to consultation on changes to Prison Population Projections

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Proposed changes to the prison population projections publication: consultation

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Prison population projections 2014 to 2020

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Prison population projections 2014 to 2020: statistical tables

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Prison population projections 2013-2019 statistical tables

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Prison population projections 2012-2018

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Prison population projections 2012-2018 statistical tables

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Prison population projections 2011-2017

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Prison population projections 2011-2017 statistical tables

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Prison population projections 2010-2016

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Prison population projections 2010-2016 statistical tables

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Prison population projections 2009-2015

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Prison population projections 2009-2015 statistical tables

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Prison population projections 2008-2015

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Prison population projections 2008-2015

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Detail

The latest National Statistics on prison population projections.

This annual release gives the projected monthly prison population in England and Wales up to 2021. Sub-population estimates are presented alongside the effects of legislation, sentencing activity, and so on relevant to the prison population.

The publication is released by the Ministry of Justice (MOJ) and produced in accordance with arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority.

If you have any comments on the methods used for prison projections, please contact us: email.

The bulletin is produced and handled by the Ministry’s analytical professionals and production staff. Pre-release access of up to 24 hours to the 2015-2021 projections was granted to the following persons:

MOJ: Secretary of State; Ministers of State; Permanent Secretary; Chief Executive NOMS; Capacity Planning NOMS, Operational Services and Interventions Group NOMS; Director General, MOJ Finance; Director General, Criminal Justice Group; Sentencing and Rehabilitation Team and relevant special advisers and press officers.

Number 10: Private Office.

Consultation

Aside from the statistics, this page also contains a consultation paper on proposed changes to the prison population projections.

Consultation response

Following consultation, the following changes will be made to future prison population projections:

  • the higher and lower scenarios will be replaced with an improved alternative method to communicate uncertainty
  • the length of the forecast period will be changed
  • the annual publication will be released in August rather than November from 2016 onwards
  • additional breakdowns of the population will be provided, including projections of the over 50 and over 60 year old populations

We will also include references to the trends taken into account in the projections.

This document provides feedback on the comments received, and clarifies the changes to future publications that are planned in response to those comments.