Offender management statistics quarterly: July to September 2024

Question 1

1.  Population

Accepted Answer

The prison population stood at 85,372 on 31 December 2024.

The sentenced prison population stood at 67,947 (80% of the total); the remand prison population stood at 17,023 (20%) and the non-criminal prison population stood at 402 (less than 0.5%).

Figure 1: Prison population, December 2004 to December 2024

Remand prison population

The 31 December 2024 remand population figure of 17,023 is 6% higher than in December 2023 and is the highest ‘end of December’ figure in at least the last fifty years. The untried prison population rose by 7% (to 11,195) when compared to the end of December 2023 whilst the convicted unsentenced population rose by 6% (to 5,828) over the same period.

The two largest offence groups for those held on remand were ‘violence against the person’ (44% of the untried population and 31% of the convicted unsentenced population) and ‘drug offences’ (12% of the untried population and 16% of the convicted unsentenced population).

The largest proportionate offence group increase in both the untried and convicted unsentenced populations was observed for Public Order Offences, with a 97% and 54% increase compared to end of December 2023 respectively. This increase is likely to be driven by the prosecutions associated with the public disorder in cities across England and Northern Ireland that occurred in late-July / early-August 2024.

While white prisoners make up 74% of the sentenced population, they make up only 65% of the remand population. All other reported ethnic groups have the same, or greater, proportional representation in the remand population than they do in the sentenced population.

Sentenced prison population

The sentenced population was 67,947, which is a 4% decrease from the same point 12 months earlier. This was largely driven by decreases in the population serving determinate sentences of 14 years or less, resulting from a policy change on early release from Standard Determinate Sentences (SDS) that took effect on 10 September 2024 (resulting in the release of a large number of offenders on that day)^{[footnote 1]}, together with earlier releases on End of Custody Supervised Licence (ECSL) from October 2023 to 9 September 2024^{[footnote 2]}, and the removal of a maximum sentence length constraint for Home Detention Curfew (HDC) release in June 2024. Among these shorter sentences the largest proportionate decrease, 20%, was seen for those serving sentences of 6 months or less.

Around 7 in 10 prisoners serving an immediate custodial sentence have been convicted of a violence against the person offence (34%), sexual offence (21%) or drug offence (14%). While both the violence against the person and sexual offence sentenced population groups have seen increases over the last year, of 1% and 3% respectively, the population serving an immediate custodial sentence for drug offences has decreased by 23% in the same period. The shift in the prison population towards violence against the person and sexual offences is likely to in part reflect exclusions from early release for violent and sexual offenders. The ‘Public order offences’ immediate custodial sentenced population has also increased notably (by 66% compared to December 2023), again likely linked to the disorder in Summer 2024.

Extended Determinate Sentences (EDS)

EDS constitute a custodial term, the majority of which is served in prison, followed by an additional extended period of licence in the community. They can be imposed if the offender is found guilty of, or has a previous conviction for, a specific sexual, violent, or terrorist offence. On 31 December 2024, 8,674 prisoners were serving such sentences. This is a 9% increase since December 2023 and prisoners serving EDS account for over 10% of the total prison population.

Indeterminate sentences

On 31 December 2024, there were 8,493 (8,142 male; 351 female) ‘unreleased’ prisoners serving indeterminate sentences (Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) and life sentences). This is virtually unchanged (less than 0.5% decrease) compared to 31 December 2023.

The number of ‘unreleased’ prisoners serving life sentences (7,448) has increased by 2% compared to one year ago whereas the number of ‘unreleased’ IPP prisoners fell by 15% to 1,045. At point of sentencing, offenders are given a minimum time period (“tariff”) that they must serve in prison before they can apply to the Parole Board for release. Two-thirds of the ‘unreleased’ IPP prisoners who have served their minimum tariff period have been held for at least ten years beyond the end of their tariff.

The number of ‘recalled’ prisoners serving life sentences decreased by 4% to 840 when compared to 31 December 2023, and the number of ‘recalled’ IPP prisoners has decreased by 3% to 1,569 over that same time period.

Recall to custody

The population recalled to custody (12,920 prisoners) has increased by 7% relative to the total a year earlier. The longer-term increases in the recall population are likely driven by a combination of factors such as increases in the average length of determinate sentences and an increase in the number of people serving indeterminate sentences or sentences with an extended licence, however over the most recent 12-month period the licence population will have also included additional ‘early releases’ on End of Custody Supervised Licence (ECSL, in effect from Oct 2023 to Sep 2024) as well those released following the expansion in Home Detention Curfew (HDC) to include those serving certain determinate sentences of 4 years or more (which came into effect in mid-June 2024).

Foreign National Offenders (FNOs)

There were 10,355 (3,589 remand, 6,423 sentenced and 343 non-criminal) foreign nationals held in custody on 31 December 2024; representing 12% of the total prison population. The number of FNOs in the prison population decreased by less than 1% compared to 31 December 2023. The most common nationalities after British Nationals in prisons are Albanian (11% of the FNO prison population), Polish (8%), Romanian (7%), Irish (6%) and Jamaican (3%).

Question 2

2.  Prison receptions and admissions

Accepted Answer

There were 18,805 first receptions into custody in the latest quarter.

13,574 were remand first receptions, 5,143 were sentenced first receptions and 88 were civil non-criminal first receptions.

Prisoner first receptions

The total number of first receptions between July and September 2024 was 1% lower than the same quarter in 2023. The number of first receptions are higher than levels observed pre-pandemic, which were around 17,000 to 18,000 per quarter.

There were 3,389 first receptions of foreign nationals between July and September 2024, which is 1% higher compared to the same period in 2023. The representation of foreign nationals amongst first receptions has remained the same since 2020, at around 18%.

The foreign nationalities with the highest numbers of first receptions in the latest quarter were: Albanian (429), Romanian (352) and Polish (298). Compared to the same quarter in 2023 this corresponds to a decrease in first receptions of these nationalities by 20%, 1% and 12% respectively. Nevertheless, when taken together, these three nationalities accounted for around one third (32%) of the total 3,389 first receptions of foreign nationals in this quarter (July to September 2024).

Prison admissions

Compared to the same quarter in 2023, immediate custodial sentenced admissions fell by 5% but remand and recall admissions increased. Untried remand admissions increased by 7%, while convicted unsentenced remand admissions rose by 9%.

Violence against the person had the largest number of sentenced admissions overall, accounting for around a quarter (23%) of all immediate custodial admissions. Most offence groups fell, with the largest percentage decrease in the summary motoring group, down by 23%. However there was a sharp increase in public order offences, up by 89% compared to the same time period in the previous year. This is likely associated with the violent disorder during the summer of 2024, which is also reflected in the untried and convicted unsentenced remand admissions for public order offences increasing by 119% and 149% respectively compared to the same quarter in 2023.

Compared to females, males made up a larger proportion of sentenced admissions across each offence group, but there are certain offences where this difference was more pronounced - sexual offences (for which 98% of the sentenced admissions were for ‘Males’), and in the opposite direction sentenced admissions for fraud offences had the highest ‘female’ proportion (22% of the sentenced admissions were for ‘Females’).

Figure 2: Representation (percentage) of male and female immediate custodial sentenced prisoner admissions in each offence group between July to September 2024 (Source: Table 2_Q_9)

Recalls

There were 9.523 ‘recall prison admissions’ (those returned to prison for breaching their release conditions) between July and September 2024 (39% higher than the same quarter in 2023, and also a ‘record high’).

The increase in recall admissions is likely associated with early releases on End of Custody Supervised Licence (ECSL) which was in effect from October 2023 to September 2024, as well as the impacts of the Suitability for Fixed Term Recall Order 2024 (which came into effect in April 2024). This Order effectively removed ‘Standard Recalls’ as an option for those serving determinate sentences of less than 12 months.

Former Members of the Armed Forces

When individuals are first received into custody, they complete a Basic Custody Screening (BCS) process. This serves to identify their needs in areas including employment, childcare and healthcare. As part of this process, they are asked whether they had served in the armed services.

We recommend users consider this data to be indicative, given the limited response rate (typically around 50%) to this veterans question. Our ongoing monitoring of data quality has also identified some shortfalls in BCS data, which we will continue to monitor.

Between July to September 2024, 176 matched individuals first received into custody answered that they had served in the armed services - this represented around 3% of those who provided a response to the question at the point of their first reception during the latest quarter.

Question 3

3.  Releases

Accepted Answer

14,920 offenders were released from custody in the latest quarter.

14,805 releases from determinate sentences and 115 from indeterminate sentences.

Prison releases from custodial sentences

The number of prisoner releases between July and September 2024 was 21% higher than the same quarter in 2023. This is likely associated with two different forms of early release in operation over the latest 12-month publication period; ECSL (from Oct 2023 to 9 Sep 2024) and SDS40 (from 10 Sep 2024), as well as an expansion in the Home Detention Curfew scheme to include eligible prisoners serving longer determinate sentences (more details in the HDC section below).

Between July and September 2024, there were increases in releases from almost all sentence types, including large increases in the number of prisoners released from sentences of 2 years to less than 4 years, and 4 years to less than 5 years (up 72% and 131%, respectively, as compared to the same period in 2023). These rises coincide with the first releases under Tranche 1 of the SDS40 scheme (the first tranche of which was for prisoners serving determinate sentences of less than 5 years).

Releases on Home Detention Curfew (HDC)

The number of offenders released on HDC in the latest quarter rose to 3,161, up 77% compared to the same period last year.

A notable contributary factor to the overall increase in HDC releases is a policy change (from June 2024) that means prisoners serving longer determinate sentences (of 4 years or more) are potentially eligible for HDC, whereas previously only those serving determinate sentences of less than 4 years were considered. Of HDC releases between July and September 2024, 31% were of prisoners serving sentences of 4 years or more.

The latest quarter also saw a decrease in HDC releases among prisoners serving shorter sentences, with those serving sentences of less than or equal to 6 months, and greater than 6 months to less than 12 months, dropping by 34% and 33%, respectively. This is likely due to such prisoners being released on End of Custody Supervised Licence (ECSL; in operation from Oct 2023 to Sep 2024) instead of under HDC.

HDC Eligibility tables

As indicated in the previous publication, with the removal of the sentence length restriction on HDC eligibility the previously published HDC ‘eligible’ cohort (based on sentence length) is no longer a sufficiently close representation. Quarterly publication of tables relating to HDC eligibility has therefore been suspended; we will keep the availability of suitable data under review. Users are encouraged to contact OMSQ-SiC-publications@justice.gov.uk with any views.

Releases on Temporary Licence (ROTL)

There were 105,909 incidences of ROTL during the quarter ending September 2024, a decrease of 4% compared to the same quarter in 2023. Of the ROTL incidences in the latest quarter, 65% were for ‘Work Related’ reasons.

The number of individuals receiving at least one incidence of ROTL between July and September 2024 fell slightly, down 3% (to 4,388) compared to the same quarter in 2023.

There were 232 Temporary Release Failures (TRF) between July and September 2024, however this still indicates that more than 99.5% of ROTL incidences in the latest quarter did not result in a failure.

Prisoner transfers

Between July and September 2024 there were 23,818 incidences of prisoner transfer, with 20,398 prisoners having at least one incidence of transfer. Both figures represent increases of 8% since the same period of 2023.

Question 4

4.  Adjudications

Accepted Answer

There were 68,765 adjudication outcomes between July and September 2024.

This is an increase of 30% on the same quarter in the previous year (but much closer to the totals for the previous 2 quarters, since the data source switch [details below]). Additional days were awarded as punishment on 1,767 occasions in this quarter.

Around three out of every five (62%) of adjudications were proven.

Changes to adjudications data sources and processing

In January 2024 the operational system for recording prisoner adjudications switched from prison-NOMIS to a new Adjudications Digital Prisons Service. This has resulted in a number of changes to data recording and processing, including a large number of historic open cases which were administratively ‘closed’ by prisons when they were migrated across to the new system.

We have sought to exclude these historic cases where they do not represent a substantive outcome in the reporting period (for example, adding a new filter to remove cases with a ‘Not Proceeded With’ outcome where the Incident Date was more than 18 months before the start of the reporting quarter, i.e. prior to 1st July 2022 for the ‘January to March 2024’ reference period, prior to 1st October 2022 for the ‘April to June 2024’ quarter, and prior to 1st January 2023 for the ‘July to September 2024’ quarter), to prevent their inflating the latest statistics and giving an inaccurate impression of recent trends in adjudications. However, these changes to data processing rely on proxies to identify which cases to exclude, so users should be aware that there is the potential for adjudications to be under- or over-reported in the latest quarter as a result.

Additionally, under the new system, adjudications covering more than one [alleged] offence are recorded as separate adjudications, whereas previously they were grouped under the same adjudications reference number. This has resulted in an increase in the number of reported adjudication outcomes (as these were previously de-duplicated in our data processing). The number of ‘punishments’ are likely to have also increased as a result of this change – this is due to the ability to record multiple punishments for linked offences.

There was a 23% increase in the number of proven adjudications (to 42,302) from the same quarter in 2023. The number of punishments rose by 97% (to 122,129) - please see the note on the data source change above for further information on the increase in the number of punishments.

Around a third (31%) of proven adjudications were for offences of ‘unauthorised transactions’, with the next largest category being ‘disobedience and disrespect’ (30%). Together these two offences account for 61% of the total and along with ‘violence’ (13% of the total), make up the three biggest offence groups for proven adjudications.

There were increases in the number of proven adjudications across all major adjudication offence types. The largest percentage rise was ‘unauthorised transactions’, which rose by 31% (to 13,319) while the number of proven adjudications for ‘willful damage’ increased by 29% (to 5,156). This was accompanied by a smaller percentage rise in the number of proven offences for ‘violence’ and ‘disobedience and disrespect’. They rose by 21% (to 5,685) and 15% (to 12,607) respectively on the same quarter of the previous year.

Additional days were awarded as punishment on 1,767 occasions in this quarter; this is a 50% rise compared with the same period in 2023. This in turn contributed to a 58% rise in the number of extra days resulting from punishments of ‘additional days added’ - a total of 28,373 days were awarded in the last quarter.

More information about the trends in Adjudications between 2011 and 2018 can be found in ‘The Adjudications Story’ publication.

Question 5

5.  Licence recalls

Accepted Answer

The number of licence recalls between July and September 2024 was 9,975, of which 487 were recalls from Home Detention Curfew (HDC).

The total number of recalls increased by 42% compared to the same quarter in 2023.

The total number of quarterly recalls trended upwards between October-December 2016 and July-September 2019. There was a marked increase in the number of quarterly recalls from early 2018 to July-September 2019, mostly due to increases in the number of HDC recalls and recalls of offenders from determinate sentences of 12 months or more. These numbers then began to fall, and the downward shift was accelerated by the introduction of COVID-19 restrictions.

From 2021, the number of quarterly recalls has generally gone up, with the latest figure being the highest in the series and an increase of 42% from a year ago. The increase from 2021 has largely come from recalls of offenders released from a sentence of under 12 months (ORA recalls). Relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in early 2021 and the unification of the probation services in June 2021 (where ORA recalls are now under a set of requirements different from that under the old Community Rehabilitation Companies) contributed to the increase from 2021.

The sharp rise in quarterly recalls (in both ORA and non-ORA recalls) in the last two quarters, was likely to be associated with the introduction of (a) End of Custody Supervised Licence (ECSL) in October 2023 and (b) Fixed-Term Recall Statutory Instrument (FTR-SI) in April 2024. ECSL allowed some determinate-sentence offenders to be released up to 70 days earlier than they would have been released previously. Further, FTR-SI mandated fixed-term recalls and automatic release after 14 days in prison on recall (retrospectively applied) for most ORA offenders. The combined effect, expectedly, would be an increased number of offenders released on licence and more opportunities for offenders with a sentence of less than 12 months to be recalled in the last two quarters.

Following relative stability up to January-March 2020, the number of quarterly ORA recalls noticeably began to fall, falling below 2,000 for the first time since July-September 2016, partly due to the introduction of COVID-19 restrictions. The relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions, the unification of the probation services in June 2021 (where ORA recalls are now under a set of requirements different from that under the old Community Rehabilitation Companies), and early releases from October 2023 have in turn likely contributed to increases in these numbers. The sharp increase in ORA recalls in the previous quarter was largely due to the introduction of FTR-SI (see the paragraph before this). The latest figure (4,951) represents an increase of 72% from a year ago but a slight decrease of 2% from the previous quarter. Increases in ORA recalls mostly drove increases in overall quarterly recall numbers since the unification in mid-2021 up to the previous quarter.

The pattern in quarterly recalls of offenders with a sentence of 12 months or more (including those with indeterminate sentences) used to mirror that of the overall quarterly recalls during relative stability in ORA recalls. In recent quarters, the share of these recalls has dropped from about 2 out of 3 to about 1 out 2 recalls, coinciding with increases in ORA recalls. Between July and September 2024, there were 5,024 recalls of such offenders, representing an increase of 6% from the previous quarter and an increase of 21% from a year ago. These recalls solely accounted for the increased number of recalls in the latest quarter from the previous quarter.

Ethnicity proportions in quarterly recalls have remained relatively stable, with about 8 in 10 recalls being white, 7% being black and 5% being Asian in the latest figures.

There usually is more than one reason for recalling an offender on licence. Of recalls in July-September 2024, about 73% involved non-compliance, 35% involved failure to keep in touch, 24% involved a charge of further offending, and 23% involved failure to reside. These proportions have remained relatively stable.

Between July and September 2024, 141 IPP prisoners and 82 prisoners serving a life sentence were rereleased, having previously been returned to custody for a breach of licence conditions. The total of these releases is an increase of 49% from a year ago, an increase of 41 releases for IPP prisoners and 32 releases for life-sentence prisoners.

Offenders not returned to custody

Of all those released on licence and recalled to custody due to breaching the conditions of their licence between April 1999 and September 2024, there were 2,700 who had not been returned to custody by the end of December 2024.

A further 15 offenders had not been returned to custody as of December 2024 after recall between 1984 and April 1999, meaning the total number of offenders not returned to custody at the end of December 2024 was 2,715. These figures include some offenders believed to be dead or living abroad but who have not been confirmed as dead or deported.

Of the 2,715 not returned to custody by 31 December 2024, 390 had originally been serving a prison sentence for violence against the person offences and a further 75 for sexual offences.

Question 6

6.  Probation

Accepted Answer

The total number of offenders on probation (i.e., court orders and pre/post-release supervision) in England and Wales at the end of September 2024 was 240,497.

With an increase of 1%, this remains largely unchanged compared with the end of September 2023, but represents an increase of 9% compared with the end of September 2014.

Probation data process transition update

In the October 2023 edition of the Offender Management Statistics Quarterly publication,^{[footnote 3]} the Probation Statistics team announced its intention to transition its legacy systems to more modern data processing methods. Since then, we have provided regular updates on the progress of this work through our quarterly releases.

The probation statistics in this edition of the bulletin are the second to be produced using the new data pipeline. Initially implemented in October 2024 for periods from January 2024 only, this pipeline has been specifically used to compile the figures for probation starts, caseload, and terminations. Data for earlier periods remain unchanged as a comparison between the old and new data pipelines showed minimal differences, making it unnecessary to revise figures for those periods.

The ‘Probation data process transition’ section at the end of this chapter provides more detail on this work and continues to present data from both the new and old data pipelines for comparison. Additionally, this section now includes updates on the progress that has been made in transitioning the court reports data to the new data pipeline.

Overall results

Latest figures show that, following a return to trends observed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic,^{[footnote 4]}quarterly probation starts have fluctuated but maintained a slight and steady increase. Meanwhile, the probation caseload has remained relatively stable.

Probation reset

Between 29 April 2024 and 1 July 2024, the Probation Service introduced a change in practice that focuses probation practitioners on engagement at the beginning of orders, where intervention can have the most impact.^{[footnote 5]}Unless offenders meet certain exemption criteria, this will suspend some sentence management contact for offenders on licence, post-sentence supervision, and those with rehabilitation activity requirements under community orders or suspended sentence orders. Although the reset will suspend some contact for eligible offenders, their orders and licences will remain active. Consequently, these offenders will still be accounted for in the probation caseload figures presented in this publication. This edition of the publication reflects the second set of probation caseload figures to be affected by the reset.

Other policy changes

Changes to the recall process,^{[footnote 6]} effective from 2 April 2024, mandate the use of fixed term recalls rather than standard recalls for offenders sentenced to less than 12 months of custody, subject to certain exceptions. Additionally, the End of Custody Supervised Licence (ECSL) scheme,^{[footnote 7]} which ran from 17 October 2023 to the 9 September 2024,and the more recent introduction of the Standard Determinate Sentences (SDS40) scheme,^{[footnote 8]} which came into force on 10 September 2024, both released eligible determinate sentenced prisoners prior to their conditional release date.^{[footnote 9]}These changes are also likely to have had some effect on the probation caseload.

Caseload

Probation caseload is a snapshot of all supervision by the Probation Service which was active on the last day of each reporting period.

As at 30 September 2024, there were 240,497 offenders supervised by the Probation Service in England and Wales (Figure 3). This has remained broadly stable over the last year, increasing by just 1% compared to 30 September 2023 and, more recently, increasing by less than 1% compared to 30 June 2024.

Between the end of September 2023 and the end of September 2024, court order caseload decreased by less than 1% from 107,992 to 107,124, with the number of offenders on a community order (CO) decreasing by 6% and those on a suspended sentence order with requirements (SSO) increasing by 7%. In addition, the number of offenders subject to a Supervision Default Order decreased by 33% over the same period, coinciding with the implementation of probation reset.

The total caseload of offenders supervised before or after release from prison at the end of September 2024 was 137,890, representing an increase of 2% compared to the end of September 2023. This increase is driven by a rise in the post-release supervision caseload, which has been steadily increasing since the end of September 2023 and coincides with the introduction of both the ECSL and SDS40 schemes.

Figure 3: Number of offenders under Probation Service supervision, 30 September 2014 to 2024^{[footnote 10]}

Source: The table of data that this graph is based on is labelled as ‘Table 6.6’ in the quarterly Probation tables from 2023. In Probation tables published between 2018 and 2022, this table is labelled as ‘Table 4.6’. In Probation tables published prior to 2018, this table is labelled as ‘Table 4.7’.

Starts

Probation starts cover all court order or pre-release supervision by the Probation Service which commenced within the reporting period.

Between July and September 2024, 42,234 offenders started court order or pre-release supervision by the Probation Service (Figure 4). This represents an increase of 0.4% on the previous quarter and an increase of 2% compared to the same quarter a year ago. Of these:^{[footnote 11]}

24,952 offenders started court order supervision – with a small increase of 1%, this remains around the same level as the previous quarter, and represents an increase of 3% compared with the same quarter in the previous year
17,296 offenders started pre-release supervision – this increased by 2% in comparison with the last quarter, and also increased by 2% compared with the same quarter last year

Of those under court order supervision:

15,575 offenders started community orders (COs) – this is a decrease of 1% compared to the previous quarter and an increase of less than 1% compared to the same quarter in 2023
9,293 offenders started suspended sentence orders with requirements (SSOs) – this is a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous quarter and an increase of 9% compared to the same quarter in the previous year

Of those under pre-release supervision, 323 offenders started a committal for breach of post-sentence supervision. This represents a decrease of 39% compared to the previous quarter and a decrease of 55% compared to the same quarter a year ago. This noticeable change coincides with the implementation of the probation reset.

Figure 4: Number of offenders starting supervision under the Probation Service, October 2021 to September 2024^{[footnote 12]}

Source: Table 6.1 of the quarterly probation tables published from 2023. Table 4.1 in quarterly probation tables published prior to 2023.

Overall, between July and September 2024, 26,012 requirements were started under COs and 17,550 under SSOs, representing an increase of 3% and 12% respectively compared to the same period in the previous year.

In the latest quarter, increases were seen across most requirement types under COs and SSOs. Furthermore, rehabilitation remains the most common requirement included within a CO and SSO. Compared to the same quarter a year ago, the number of rehabilitation requirements started under COs rose by 4% to 11,584 and rose by 10% to 7,890 under SSOs.

Under COs, some of the most notable changes in requirements commenced between July and September 2024 compared to the same quarter in 2023 were:

electronic monitoring decreasing by 23% to 621
accredited programme increasing by 22% to 1,761
mental health treatment (MHTR) increasing by 22% to 692
exclusion increasing by 22% to 287
drug rehabilitation (DRR) increasing by 16% to 1,328

Under SSOs, some of the most notable changes in requirements commenced between April and June 2024 compared to the same quarter in 2023 were:

mental health treatment (MHTR) increasing by 34% to 481
exclusion increasing by 27% to 162
accredited programme increasing by 26% to 1,868
drug rehabilitation (DRR) increasing by 24% to 880
alcohol abstinence and monitoring (AAMR) increasing by 17% to 609

The increase in MHTRs within COs and SSOs since July 2020 is linked to a scaling up of the availability to sentence to this requirement across the criminal courts of England. This follows the introduction of new MHTR services provided by NHS England and is part of an initiative^{[footnote 13]} that aims to reduce reoffending and short custodial sentences by addressing the underlying mental health issues which may be contributing towards offending behaviours.

The decline in electronic monitoring requirements is likely to be associated with the continued mandating of domestic abuse and safeguarding enquiries in all cases where electronically monitored curfews are proposed. This policy mandates that electronically monitored curfews should not be recommended to the courts unless these enquiries have been made first, and this requirement has likely led to the observed decrease in the overall number of electronically monitored curfews issued.

This was introduced in April 2022 and the decline was initially observed in curfew figures only. However, reforms to recording practices from October 2022, to more accurately record curfew requirements with and without electronic monitoring, mean this decline has now switched to being observed in electronic monitoring figures instead.

In terms of the most frequently used combinations of requirements commenced between July and September 2024, rehabilitation was the most common requirement to be combined with other requirements.

Compared to the same quarter in 2023, under COs, rehabilitation requirements combined separately with:

alcohol treatment (ATR) increased by 17% to 739
DRR increased by 13% to 868
MHTR increased by 8% to 275
AAMR increased by 1% to 407

In contrast, rehabilitation requirements combined with accredited programmes and unpaid work under COs decreased by 12% over the same period.

Compared to the same quarter in 2023, under SSOs, rehabilitation requirements combined separately with:

MHTR increased by 61% to 185
AAMR increased by 26% to 232
DRR increased by 23% to 500
unpaid work increased by 8% to 2,204

In contrast, rehabilitation combined with electronic monitoring decreased by 23% and rehabilitation combined with accredited programmes decreased by 15% over the same period.

Terminations

Probation terminations cover all community order (CO) and suspended sentence order (SSO) supervision by the Probation Service which terminated within the reporting period.

Of the 14,860 COs and 7,433 SSOs terminated between July and September 2024, 71% and 75% respectively were terminated successfully, i.e., ran their full course, or were terminated early for good progress.

Pre-sentence reports

Pre-sentence reports (PSRs) cover all Standard Delivery, Fast Delivery written, and Fast Delivery oral reports prepared by Probation Service staff for Magistrates’ and Crown Courts. They contain information on the offender and offence(s) committed to assist sentencing.

In the quarter July to September 2024, at 24,478, the total number of PSRs prepared by the Probation Service decreased by less than 1% from those seen in the last quarter, and increased by 6% compared to the same quarter in 2023.

The number of SSOs proposed in PSRs declined steeply from 12,762 in the year ending December 2018 to 3 in the year ending September 2024. This decline is associated with a change in 2018 of the guidelines to probation staff on recommending suspended sentence orders in PSRs.^{[footnote 14]}As a result, concordance rates for SSOs should be interpreted with caution.

In the year ending September 2024, 88% of immediate custodial sentences proposed in PSRs resulted in that sentence being given, representing the highest concordance between sentence proposed and sentence given, excluding SSOs. Furthermore, immediate custody represented 8% of all sentences proposed in PSRs over the same period.

Probation data process transition

In the October 2023 edition of the Offender Management Statistics Quarterly publication,^{[footnote 15]} the Probation Statistics team announced its intention to transition its legacy systems to more modern data processing methods to enable greater functionality that, in turn, will present further opportunities for more thorough, accurate and timely analysis, and insight.

Since the October 2023 release, this section of the Probation chapter has provided updates on the progress of this work. While the October 2024 release introduced the first official figures produced using the new data pipeline, this section will continue to include data from both the new and old data pipelines until the end of the reporting year to enable comparisons between the two systems.

Additionally, this section now includes a new update on the progress that has been made in transitioning the court reports data to the new data pipeline.

Explanations of some of the more apparent differences that have arisen using the new process can be found at the end of each table.

Starts

Table 1: Offenders starting court order and pre-release supervision by the Probation Service, by sentence type, July to September 2024, England and Wales, sourced using the new and old data process (published data source: Table 6.1)

Sentence type	Old	New (Published)	Difference
All court orders and pre-release supervision	42,466	42,234	-0.5% (-232)
All court orders	24,954	24,952	<-0.1% (-2)
All community sentences	15,667	15,666	<-0.1% (-1)
Community orders	15,576	15,575	<-0.1% (-1)
Other sentences	9,295	9,294	<-0.1% (-1)
Suspended sentence orders with requirements	9,294	9,293	<-0.1% (-1)
Pre-release supervision	17,526	17,296	-1.3% (-230)

While most of the differences under the new data process are minimal, the most apparent variance arises when comparing pre-release supervision starts figures. Most of the difference between the new and old data process for pre-release supervision starts can be attributed to duplicate records of offenders within the old data. While these records are not filtered out using the old process, due to limitations of the data extraction process, the slightly lower figure of pre-release supervision starts produced by the new process is more reflective of the actual number of offenders that began pre-release supervision in this period.

The remaining difference can be attributed to discrepancies in the timing of data extraction between the new and old data process.

Figure 5: Offenders starting court order and pre-release supervision by the Probation Service, July 2022 to September 2024, England and Wales, sourced using the new and old data process (published data source: Table 6.1)