Modern Slavery: NRM cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision, February 2026
Published 12 March 2026
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This statistical bulletin provides a summary of the latest statistics on cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision referred to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) as of 28 February 2026.
Comprehensive data on National Referral Mechanism (NRM) referrals and decisions are published by the Home Office quarterly and annually. The next quarterly release will be published on 7 May 2026.
The data published here has been extracted from live operational databases. It is therefore provisional and may differ from other statistics published subsequently.
1. Cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Individuals referred to the NRM receive decisions from the Home Office on 2 grounds: reasonable grounds and conclusive grounds. For more information, see the published guidance for modern slavery. There is currently a backlog of cases awaiting conclusive grounds decisions which the government has committed to eradicate by December 2026. The backlog was at its highest at the end of 2022 but has consistently fallen since then. At the end of September 2025, it was a third of what it was at its peak.
Figure 1: Number of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Source: SCA,IECA
Figure 1 shows that as of 28 February 2026, there were 4,867 cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision having been issued a positive reasonable grounds decision; a 6% decrease compared to 31 January 2026 (5,152) and an 83% decrease from the peak of 29,275 recorded at the end of quarter 4, October to December 2022.
There were 4,303 cases awaiting conclusive grounds decision having been referred to the Single Competent Authority (SCA); a 7% decrease compared to 31 January 2026 (4,649) and an 83% decrease from the peak of 25,934 recorded at the end of quarter 3, July to September 2022.
There were 564 cases awaiting conclusive grounds decision having been referred to the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA); a 12% increase compared to 31 January 2026 (503), but an 84% decrease from the peak of 3,451 recorded at the end of quarter 4, October to December 2022.
2. Average age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Timeliness of decisions is now measured by the average (median) time cases have been awaiting a conclusive grounds decision once a reasonable grounds decision has been issued.
This has been updated to reflect changes to timeliness measures that were introduced in Modern slavery: National Referral Mechanism and Duty to Notify statistics UK, end of year summary 2025. Reconsideration requests have been excluded from the calculation. For more information, please refer to the end of year summary.
Figure 2: Average age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Source: SCA,IECA
Figure 2 shows that as of 28 February 2026, the average (median) age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision having been issued a positive reasonable grounds decision was 66 days, a decrease of 15% (12 days) when compared to the total of 78 days on 31 January 2026.
The average (median) age of SCA cases in the system awaiting a conclusive grounds decision was 68 days, a decrease of 15% (12 days) when compared to the total of 80 days on 31 January 2026.
The average (median) age of IECA cases in the system awaiting a conclusive grounds decision was 36 days, a decrease of 5% (2 days) when compared to the total of 38 days on 31 January 2026.