Official Statistics

Identified needs of offenders in custody and the community from the Offender Assessment System, 30 June 2021

Published 1 June 2022

Applies to England and Wales

1. Rationale

To better understand the needs of offenders who receive custody and community disposals, this ad hoc statistical release provides information derived from the Offender Assessment System (OASys). This information will be used in the development of Regional Reducing Reoffending Plans, which will set out the regional aspirations and priorities across Her Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) to reduce reoffending over three years.

This release sets out identified needs of offenders serving both custodial sentences and community orders on 30 June 2021, with analysis structured by gender, age and sentence type. This is an update to, and adaptation of, a 2019 ad hoc release on identified needs of offenders in custody and the community. Additionally, this release will be accompanied with information at a sub-national level: by probation region for people in the community and by prison group for people serving custodial sentences, on 30 June 2021.

This information will be beneficial for the development of policies around managing offenders, both in and out of custody.

2. Background, Methodology and Coverage

This publication presents information on criminogenic needs identified at assessment for HMPPS caseload on a given date: 30 June 2021. Data on criminogenic needs are recorded in the Offender Assessment System (OASys) which is an operational database used to assess the risks and needs of eligible offenders in prisons and probation trusts across England and Wales.

2.1 Combined prison and probation caseload data

Information provided in this release is derived from an analytical dataset that combines three data sources extracted from Ministry of Justice (MoJ) operational databases: the probation case management system (National Delius or Delius), the prison case management system (P-NOMIS) and OASys.

To create the underlying dataset, caseload listings from Delius and P-NOMIS, as they appear on 30 June 2021, are combined (see 4.2 - Matching of offender records). Where individuals have concurrent sentences listed on Delius, the sentence with the latest expected termination date is retained.

2.2 OASys assessments and criminogenic needs

When giving an OASys assessment, assessors can choose which layer OASys assessment they create; a basic assessment (Layer 1), or a full assessment (Layer 3). A basic Layer 1 assessment is a reduced version of an assessment. It does not include criminogenic needs sections and contains a basic sentence plan.

A Layer 3 assessment (herein referred to as a Layer 3) contains all sections of OASys including the predictors, criminogenic needs sections, risk sections, risk management plan and sentence plan.

There are eight criminogenic needs measuring factors linked to offending behaviour which are assessed using OASys; Accommodation, Employability, ^{[footnote 1]} Relationships, Lifestyle, Drug misuse, Alcohol misuse, Thinking & Behaviour, and Attitudes, and three additional ‘responsivity measures’ that are used to aid practitioners in how an offender may respond to support. The three responsivity measures are: learning disability and challenges, mental health conditions and an indicator of low maturity levels. ^{[footnote 2]} Responsivity measures are not included as part of this release.

2.3 Coverage of OASys assessments

After combining the prison and probation caseload, further matching is carried out to identify OASys assessments for individuals in the caseload. For those who have been assessed, the most recent Layer 3 is retained, if it was completed during the current sentence and/or within the past two years. OASys coverage is defined as the proportion of the total caseload with a complete Layer 3.

An acceptable coverage rate adopted in this publication is where at least 50% of the caseload have had an OASys Layer 3. Results are indicative of those with a full OASys Layer 3. The data presented is therefore not representative of the full prison or probation caseload on 30 June 2021. Inferences should not be made about those without an assessment, and therefore care must be taken when interpreting results where assessment coverage (herein referred to as ‘coverage’) is lower or where numbers are small.

2.3.1 Coverage: Custodial caseload

Overall coverage for the custody caseload on 30 June 2021 was 78%. Variation is observed by age, gender and sentence type as follows:

• Coverage increased with age: 68% of the custody caseload aged 18-25 had a full assessment compared to 89% of those aged 60+;

• Males tended to have higher coverage than females across all age bands (78% overall compared to 69% for females overall) except 18-25 where males and females had similar rates of coverage (68% and 67%, respectively);

• Across determinate sentences, coverage rates increased by length of sentence: 66% of the custody caseload serving a custodial sentence of 12 months or less had a full OASys compared to 91% of those serving a determinate sentence of 4 years or more;

• Individuals who had been recalled and those serving indeterminate sentences ^{[footnote 3]} had the highest rates of coverage with over 95% coverage for both; and

• People on remand had the lowest rates of coverage with around 32% overall. We do not believe this is sufficient coverage to make conclusions on the remand population in this release.

2.3.2 Coverage: Community caseload

Overall coverage for the community caseload on 30 June 2021 was 73%. Coverage of assessments across England and Wales will be subject to variation where some Community Rehabilitation Companies (CRCs) ^{[footnote 4]} did not use OASys, or used it sparingly (see 6.2.2 - Recording of assessments/Use of OASys regionally). Coverage rate varied by gender, age and sentence type as follows:

• Coverage increased with age: 66% of the caseload aged 18-25 had a full assessment compared to 80% of those aged 60+;

• Males tended to have higher coverage than females across all age bands. Overall, 73% of males had a Layer 3 compared to 69% of females; and

• Coverage for people released on licence (88%) was higher than the coverage of those with either a community order (60%) or suspended sentence (66%). This pattern was repeated across age bands.

3. Key Findings

3.1 Identified needs: Custody and community caseload

Figure 1 shows the overall rates of identified needs, for those with an OASys Layer 3 on 30 June 2021, comparing the custody and community ^{[footnote 5]} caseloads overall.

Figure 1: Criminogenic needs in custody and the community, 30 June 2021

Of those with a Layer 3, people in custody had higher rates of identified needs across seven out of the eight need areas. The largest difference was seen in those with an accommodation need (62% for those in custody, compared to 33% for those in the community).

Lifestyle and associates (or lifestyle) need was the most prevalent in both custody (87%) and community (66%). This OASys section includes issues such as reckless and risk-taking behaviour, being influenced by criminal peers, and having lifestyle, associates or conducting in activities that encourage offending. ^{[footnote 6]}

For both custody and community, alcohol misuse need was the least prevalent out of the eight need areas: 21% of people with a Layer 3 in custody and 22% of people in the community were identified as having an alcohol misuse need.

3.2 Identified needs: Custody caseload

3.2.1 Sentence type

Figure 2 shows how rates of need for people with a Layer 3 in custody varied by sentence type. Coverage for people on remand on 30 June 2021 is at 32% so have been excluded from this figure.

Figure 2: Criminogenic needs in custody, by sentence type, 30 June 2021

Recall

People on recall, with a Layer 3, had the highest prevalence of need in six out of the eight needs areas, when compared to all other custodial sentence types: attitudes (94%), lifestyle (94%), thinking and behaviour (90%), relationships (88%), employability (79%) and accommodation (74%).

Indeterminate sentences

People serving indeterminate sentences, with a Layer 3, had the lowest rates of identified alcohol misuse need (12% compared to 21% of the custody caseload) and drugs misuse need (37% compared to 49% of the custody caseload).

Determinate sentences

People with a Layer 3, serving determinate sentences of 12 months or less, had higher rates of identified needs than people serving longer determinate sentences. This was seen across most of the need areas, except lifestyle need which was consistent across all lengths of determinate sentences – at around 85%.

The most prominent difference, by sentence length, was in alcohol misuse need where 43% of those serving sentences of 12 months or less had an alcohol misuse need, compared to 15% of those serving a sentence of 4 years or more (a difference of 28 percentage points).

Note that people serving determinate sentences of 12 months or less and 1-4 years had lower rates of coverage at 66% and 67%, respectively. This is compared to 91% coverage for people serving sentences of 4 years or more and will affect how representative comparisons are.

3.2.2 Gender

Figure 3 shows how rates of identified need, for people in custody, varies by gender. Please note that coverage for females in custody is lower than for males (see 2.3.1 - Coverage: Community caseload).

Figure 3: Criminogenic needs in custody, by gender, 30 June 2021

Lifestyle need was the most prevalent need identified for males (87%) and females (85%) and was the need with the smallest difference in rate (2 percentage points higher for males).

Females in custody, with a Layer 3, had higher rates of identified needs in five out of the eight need areas: relationship need (85% compared to 71% of males), accommodation need (71% compared to 62% of males), employability need (71% compared to 65% of males), alcohol misuse need (29% compared to 20% of males) and drug misuse (53% compared to 49% of males).

Though differences are smaller, males with a Layer 3 had a higher prevalence of attitude need (83% compared to 75% of females) and thinking need (79% compared to 76%), when compared to females.

3.2.3 Age

Figure 4 shows how rates of identified needs varies by age for people in custody with a Layer 3.

Figure 4: Criminogenic needs in custody, by age, 30 June 2021

For three of the eight need areas, there is a pattern of falling rates of need as age increases: lifestyle (92% of people aged 18-25 compared to 72% of people aged 60+); employability (77% of people aged 18-25 compared to 27% of those aged 60+); and drug misuse, where the largest difference was observed, (61% of people aged 18-25 compared to 8% of those aged 60+).

Rates of relationship need increased with age (66% of people aged 18-25 compared to 75% of those aged 60+).

Rates of identified alcohol misuse need peaked in the 30-39 age band (26%) with lower rates of alcohol misuse need in the 18-25 age band (17%) and 60+ age band (8%). Do note that coverage does increase with age (see 2.3.1 - Coverage: Custodial caseload).

3.3 Identified needs for people in the community

3.3.1 Sentence type

Figure 5 shows how rates of identified need varies for people on the community caseload with a Layer 3, by sentence type: people released from custody on licence, people with community orders and people with suspended sentences.

Nearly 99% of the sentence type ‘Community Orders / Other’ consists of people sentenced to ORA ^{[footnote 7]} Community Orders (76% of community caseload) and Sentencing Act 2020 Community Orders (accounting for 22% of caseload). This category includes a small volume of legacy orders, rare supervision orders and some Scottish community orders

Figure 5: Criminogenic needs in the community, by sentence type, 30 June 2021

For four of the eight need areas, for people with a Layer 3, rates of need were higher for people on licence than those on community orders and suspended sentences: lifestyle need (72% compared to the next highest rate of 64%, for people on suspended sentences); employability need (52% compared to 38% of people on both community orders and suspended sentences); attitudes need (66% compared to 56% on community orders); and accommodation need (37% compared to 31% for people on community orders).

People with a Layer 3 serving community orders had higher rates of alcohol misuse as an identified need (29%) than both people serving suspended sentence (25%) and those on licence (16%).

3.3.2 Gender

Figure 6 shows how rates of identified need varies, by gender, for people in the community with a Layer 3.

Figure 6: Criminogenic needs in the community, by gender, 30 June 2021

Overall, females in the community, with a Layer 3, were more likely than males to have a relationships need (74% compared to 62% of males), alcohol misuse need (29% compared to 21% of males) and accommodation need (37% compared to 33% of males).

Conversely, males in the community, with a Layer 3 had higher rates of attitudes need than females (62% compared to 50% of females), thinking and behaviour need (63% compared to 55% of females) and lifestyle need (66% compared to 60% of females).

Males and females have similar rates of identified drug misuse need (35% for males compared to 34% for females) and employability need (46% for females compared to 44% for males).

3.3.3 Age

Figure 7 shows how criminogenic needs vary by age for people in the community with a Layer 3.

Figure 7: Criminogenic needs in the community, by age, 30 June 2021

For three of the eight need areas there was a pattern of falling rates of identified need as age increased:

• 44% of people aged 18-25 had a drug misuse need compared to 6% of those aged 60+ (a difference of 38 percentage points)

• 55% of those aged 18-25 had an employability need compared to 19% of those aged 60+ (a difference of 36 percentage points);

• 73% of those aged 18-25 had a lifestyle and associates need compared to 48% of those aged 60+ (a difference of 25 percentage points);

Alcohol misuse need peaks in the 30-39 age band (25%) which is higher than those aged 18-25 (16%) and 60+ (11%).

4. Notes and Glossary

Criminogenic needs are dynamic risk factors that are directly linked to criminal behaviour. Eight criminogenic needs are measured in OASys: Accommodation, Employability, Relationships, Lifestyle and Associates, Drug Misuse, Alcohol Misuse, Thinking & Behaviour and Attitudes. Three responsivity measures are also derived from OASys variables (Learning Disability and Challenges, low psychosocial maturity and mental health issues): these factors which may affect how an offender responds to support provided to address their criminogenic needs. For example, somebody with a learning disability may require support materials to be provided in a different format in order to benefit from them.

4.1 Criminogenic Needs

All needs are derived from numbered questions on the OASys. Each question is scored on a scale from 0 to 2 (some being score 0 or 2, and others 0, 1 or 2) with 0 denoting ‘no need’, 1 ‘some need’ and 2 ‘severe need’. Each set of needs questions has a maximum score, and a need is identified when the score equals or exceeds a cut-off (see table below).

Criminogenic needs	Scored questions	Scale range	Cut-off
Accommodation	3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6	0-8	2+
Employment	4.2, 4.3, 4.4, 4.5	0-8	3+
Relationships	6.1, 6.3, 6.6	0-6	2+
Lifestyle and Associates	7.2, 7.3, 7.5	0-6	2+
Drug Misuse	8.4, 8.5, 8.6, 8.8, 8.9	0-10	2+
Alcohol Misuse	9.1, 9.2, 9.3, 9.5	0-8	4+
Thinking & Behaviour	11.5, 11.6, 11.7, 11.9	0-8	4+
Attitudes	12.1, 12.4, 12.5, 12.8	0-8	2+

Accommodation Need

No Fixed Abode (NFA) or transient, suitability of accommodation, permanence of accommodation, suitability of location of accommodation, accommodation linked to offending behaviour and accommodation linked to risk of serious harm.

Cut off is 2+ and a score of 2 on Question 3.3 of an OASys assessment (No Fixed Abode or Transient), causes the other questions on Accommodation to be scored 2 as well. This would be an automatic flag of an accommodation need. There is no equivalent to this in any other questions.

Employability Need

Unemployment, employment history, work-related skills, attitude to employment, reading, writing and numeracy, employment related to offending behaviour.

Relationships Need

Relationships with family, childhood experience, relationship with partner, previous relationship experience, domestic violence: perpetrator or victim, parental responsibilities, relationships related to offending behaviour.

Lifestyle Need

Activities that encourage offending, influenced by criminal peers, recklessness/risk taking behaviour, lifestyle and associates linked to offending behaviour.

Drugs Need

Current drug misuse, level of use of main drug, injecting drugs, motivation to tackle drugs, drugs major part of lifestyle, drugs linked to offending behaviour.

Alcohol Need

Current alcohol misuse, binge drinking, previous alcohol use, motivation to tackle alcohol use, alcohol linked to offending behaviour.

Thinking Need

Interpersonal skills, impulsivity, temper control, problem recognition, problem solving, awareness of consequences, understands others’ views, thinking and behaviour linked to offending behaviour.

Attitudes Need

Pro-criminal attitudes, attitude to supervisions, attitude to community/society, motivation to reduce offending, attitudes linked to offending behaviour.

4.2 Matching of offender records

4.2.1 Prison and probation caseload

The production of the dataset (see 2.1 - Combined prison and probation caseload data), which underpins this analysis, relies on matching of individuals in the caseload between the prison and probation case management systems P-NOMIS and Delius, respectively. Most individuals in custody are recorded on the probation caseload (under the status of ‘pre-release’) ^{[footnote 8]} and so this results in a large overlap between the prison population and probation caseload data. Matching ensures we reduce any duplication, which could be the result of recording issues between the two case management systems.

Automated matching functions are used to link cases between Delius and P-NOMIS and use combinations of the following variables:

• PNC ID

• NOMIS ID

• Date of birth

• Surname

• Forename

• Gender

Twelve matching combinations are applied sequentially. After each step unmatched records are passed to the next matching combination. The matching process uses exact matches along with ‘sounds like’ phonetic matches on forename and surname, and year of birth.

There are 78,324 prisoners in the p-NOMIS extract dataset, of which we matched 86% to a Delius record, with 73% of matches occurring within the first pass at the highest probability.

4.2.2 Offender assessment system (OASys)

After the caseload dataset has been derived, further matching is carried out with OASys to extract information on assessments carried out. OASys reports are matched on combinations of the following variables:

• PNC ID

• Date of birth

• Surname

• Forename

• Gender

Nine matching combinations are applied sequentially, with unmatched records at each stage passed to the next step. The matching process uses exact matches along with ‘sounds like’ phonetic matches on forename and surname. Efforts are made to resolve duplicate OASys reports based on their strongest matches. Only OASys reports from the beginning of the current sentence or 2 years from the snapshot date are used. The latest OASys report for an individual is used, with the more detailed Layer 3 favoured over the less detailed Layer 1 assessment. Out of 245,053 records passed to this second stage (from Delius and P-NOMIS) we match 180,764 of them to an OASys report (74% coverage).

5. List of Supplementary Products/Appendix

Tables published alongside this bulletin cover criminogenic needs by age, gender and sentence type across England and Wales.

Table 1a: Identified criminogenic needs by sentence type and age group for those in the community

Table 1b: Identified criminogenic needs by gender and sentence type for those in the community

Table 1c: Identified criminogenic needs by gender and age group for those in the community

Table 2a: Identified criminogenic needs by gender and age for those in custody

Table 2b: Identified criminogenic needs by gender and sentence type for those in custody

Table 2c: Identified criminogenic needs by sentence type and age for those in custody

5.1 Sub-National Data

Additionally we have published a .csv which will allow for analysis of the above data by probation region and prison group (sub-national).

All volumes in the sub-national data have been rounded to the nearest five which will provide protection of disclosure, due to small numbers. Any count of 0, 1 and 2 will be represented by zero.

6. Statement of Compliance with the Code of Practice for Statistics

The Code of Practice for Statistics is built around 3 main concepts, or pillars:

• Trustworthiness – is about having confidence in the people and organisations that publish statistics

• Quality – is about using data and methods that produce statistics

• Value – is about publishing statistics that support society’s needs

The following explains how MoJ have applied the pillars of the Code in a proportionate way.

6.1 Trustworthiness

The figures presented in this ad hoc statistical publication were created to allow for development of Regional Reducing Reoffending Plans, which will set out the regional aspirations and priorities across HMPPS to reduce reoffending over three years. They are being published now in order to give equal access to all those with an interest in them.

MoJ analysts work to a professional competency framework and Civil Service core values of integrity, honesty, objectivity, and impartiality. The analysis in this release has been scrutinised and received sign-off by the Senior Responsible Analyst.

We protect the security of our data in order to maintain the privacy of the citizen, fulfil relevant legal obligations and uphold our obligation that no statistics will be produced that are likely to identify an individual, while at the same time taking account of our obligation to obtain maximum value from the data we hold for statistical purposes. All analysts are given security training and the majority of data accessed by analysts is obfuscated and access is business case controlled based to the minimum data required.

6.2 Quality

6.2.1 Data Sources

The data which underpins this release is extracted solely from departmental operational systems, which are relied upon by MoJ for effective offender management. As with any large-scale recording system the data is subject to possible errors with data entry and processing. Quality assurance has taken place in line with the standards usually applied to MoJ ad hoc releases, with an internal check that the results shown are robust, and a true representation of the needs of offenders who receive custody and community disposals.

6.2.2 Recording of assessments/Use of OASys regionally

Prior to the reunification of the probation service on 26 June 2021, several CRCs used alternate risk assessment systems, for which data are not available. As such, OASys coverage in these areas, such as London, will be low, with assessments only likely to be matched for those on the National Probation Service caseload and others on licence from longer custodial sentences.

6.3 Value

Releasing this information serves the increased public interest in the needs of offenders being managed in the justice system. The figures also help reduce the administrative burden of answering Parliamentary Questions, Freedom of Information requests and other forms of ad hoc enquiry.

7. Further information

7.1 Contact

Press enquiries should be directed to the Ministry of Justice press office:
Tel: 020 3334 3536
Email: newsdesk@justice.gov.uk

Other enquiries about these statistics should be directed to the enquiries team within the Data and Analysis Directorate of the Ministry of Justice:

Andrew Craik
Lead Data Scientist
Ministry of Justice
7th Floor
102 Petty France
London
SW1H 9AJ

Email: statistics.enquiries@justice.gov.uk

General enquiries about the statistical work of the Ministry of Justice can be e-mailed to: statistics.enquiries@justice.gov.uk

General information about the official statistics system of the UK is available from: http://statisticsauthority.gov.uk/about-the-authority/uk-statistical-system

© Crown copyright Produced by the Ministry of Justice

Alternative formats are available on request from statistics.enquiries@justice.gov.uk.

1. For ‘employability’ need, within this release, we refer to a need for ‘employment, education and training’. See glossary for more details. ↩

2. The clinical rule for the indicator of low levels of maturity is generally flagged for males aged 18-25 only. ↩

3. Includes IPP (Imprisonment for Public Protection) and Life sentences ↩

4. Community Rehabilitation Companies (CRCs) – run by a mix of providers from private, statutory and voluntary sectors, contracted to deliver community sentences for medium and low-risk offenders ↩

5. Consisting of people released on licence from custody, people who have received suspended sentence and community orders ↩

6. See glossary for question examples for each criminogenic need. ↩

7. Offender Rehabilitation Act ↩

8. As opposed to being on probation caseload with a community order (including suspended sentences) or post-release on licence. ↩